2020 11 19 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Spezia vs Atalanta at 21 November 2020
Crotone vs Lazio at 21 November 2020
Juventus vs Cagliari at 21 November 2020
Napoli vs Milan at 22 November 2020
Verona vs Sassuolo at 22 November 2020
Udinese vs Genoa at 22 November 2020
Roma vs Parma at 22 November 2020
Inter vs Torino at 22 November 2020
Fiorentina vs Benevento at 22 November 2020
Sampdoria vs Bologna at 22 November 2020


Spezia vs Atalanta at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Spezia and Atalanta for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spezia

6.25

7.14

-2.0

Draw

5.10

1.64

41.4

Atalanta

1.46

3.95

-43.2

Over 2.5

1.35

5.46

-55.8

Under 2.5

3.18

1.22

50.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (41.4 %, 50.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance at home.
Spezia, at home, had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 7 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Benevento

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Juventus

H

1

4

L

O

G

25 Oct

Parma

A

2

2

D

O

G

18 Oct

Fiorentina

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Oct

Milan

A

0

3

L

O

N

30 Sep

Udinese

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Sassuolo

H

1

4

L

O

G


Atalanta in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Atalanta in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance as a guest.
Atalanta, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 7 results of Atalanta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Inter

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Crotone

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Sampdoria

H

1

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

Napoli

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Oct

Cagliari

H

5

2

W

O

G

30 Sep

Lazio

A

4

1

W

O

G

26 Sep

Torino

A

4

2

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Atalanta.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spezia

60%

-21%

71%

-10%

Atalanta

58%

-9%

36%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 0.88 goals and Atalanta to score 2.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.56 goals in the game and the guest team Atalanta to win by 1.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 0.91 goals and Atalanta to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

2.87

0-1

5.92

1

-5.59

2-3

1.85

2

1.54

4+

3.44

3

-9.26

Ov 1.5

1.20

4

4.31

Un 1.5

5.92

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

5.46

6+

-66.67

Un 2.5

1.22

Gg

5.95

Ov 3.5

3.44

NoG

1.20

Un 3.5

1.41

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

-1.37

0.49

-3.02

2-3 goals

1.87

27.05

2.33

4+ goals

-10.78

1.21

3.78

Ov 1.5

3.18

3.19

2.69

Un 1.5

-1.37

0.49

-3.02

Ov 2.5

-1.20

0.76

1.95

Un 2.5

2.81

2.22

5.14

Ov 3.5

-10.78

1.21

3.78

Un 3.5

4.28

1.93

4.03

Goal-Goal

-1.79

0.64

168.00

No Goal

3.58

2.39

3.31

G-G+Ov 2.5

-1.57

0.61

148.00

NG+Un 2.5

2.74

2.39

5.02


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Crotone vs Lazio at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Crotone and Lazio for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crotone

4.47

2.88

12.4

Draw

4.01

3.48

3.8

Lazio

1.74

2.73

-20.8

Over 2.5

1.60

1.89

-9.6

Under 2.5

2.32

2.13

3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crotone, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.4 %, 3.8 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crotone in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crotone in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance at home.
Crotone, at home, had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Crotone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Torino

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Atalanta

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Cagliari

A

2

4

L

O

G

17 Oct

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Oct

Sassuolo

A

1

4

L

O

G

27 Sep

Milan

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Sep

Genoa

A

1

4

L

O

G


Lazio in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lazio in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance as a guest.
Lazio, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Lazio was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Torino

A

4

3

W

O

G

24 Oct

Bologna

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Sampdoria

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Oct

Inter

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Sep

Atalanta

H

1

4

L

O

G

26 Sep

Cagliari

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crotone and the red line for guest team, Lazio.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crotone

37%

0%

54%

8%

Lazio

31%

21%

28%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crotone to score 0.98 goals and Lazio to score 1.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.95 goals in the game and the guest team Lazio to win by 0.99 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.33 goals and Lazio to score 1.37 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.62

0-1

5.13

1

12.66

2-3

2.05

2

3.64

4+

3.15

3

4.72

Ov 1.5

1.24

4

5.81

Un 1.5

5.13

5

7.75

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

2.13

Gg

2.31

Ov 3.5

3.15

NoG

1.76

Un 3.5

1.47

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

195.00

1.68

2.50

2-3 goals

1.59

487.00

2.71

4+ goals

7.93

1.86

2.96

Ov 1.5

2.32

4.70

2.80

Un 1.5

195.00

1.68

2.50

Ov 2.5

2.97

3.11

2.92

Un 2.5

2.78

4.02

2.55

Ov 3.5

7.93

1.86

2.96

Un 3.5

2.22

5.83

2.64

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.53

4.00

No Goal

2.92

4.89

2.21

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.82

2.54

3.99

NG+Un 2.5

2.78

4.89

2.55


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Juventus vs Cagliari at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Juventus and Cagliari for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Juventus

1.34

2.00

-24.6

Draw

5.59

2.88

16.8

Cagliari

8.73

6.54

3.8

Over 2.5

1.43

2.83

-34.6

Under 2.5

2.74

1.55

28.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Cagliari, Under 2.5 (16.8 %, 3.8 %, 28 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Juventus in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance at home.
Juventus, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Lazio

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Spezia

A

4

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Crotone

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Napoli

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Sep

Roma

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Sep

Sampdoria

H

3

0

W

O

N


Cagliari in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cagliari in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cagliari’s performance as a guest.
Cagliari, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 7 results of Cagliari was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Sampdoria

H

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Bologna

A

2

3

L

O

G

25 Oct

Crotone

H

4

2

W

O

G

18 Oct

Torino

A

3

2

W

O

G

04 Oct

Atalanta

A

2

5

L

O

G

26 Sep

Lazio

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Sep

Sassuolo

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Juventus and the red line for guest team, Cagliari.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Juventus

28%

11%

45%

16%

Cagliari

69%

-9%

34%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Juventus to score 2.65 goals and Cagliari to score 0.65 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.3 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 2 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.49 goals and Cagliari to score 0.75 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.18

0-1

4.05

1

18.52

2-3

1.92

2

2.50

4+

4.31

3

8.33

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.76

Un 1.5

4.05

5

13.16

Ov 2.5

2.84

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.55

Gg

4.55

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

1.28

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.17

1.28

-10.29

2-3 goals

1.36

-52.00

3.54

4+ goals

5.95

1.41

8.00

Ov 1.5

1.78

4.88

4.27

Un 1.5

3.17

1.28

-10.29

Ov 2.5

3.29

2.15

4.35

Un 2.5

1.65

3.54

9.11

Ov 3.5

5.95

1.41

8.00

Un 3.5

1.66

4.19

6.24

Goal-Goal

-220.00

1.43

3.28

No Goal

1.55

4.04

9.16

G-G+Ov 2.5

-230.00

1.40

3.43

NG+Un 2.5

1.67

4.04

9.25


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Napoli vs Milan at 22 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Napoli and Milan for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 22 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Napoli

2.36

2.36

0.0

Draw

3.56

3.79

-1.7

Milan

3.00

3.21

-2.2

Over 2.5

1.71

1.88

-5.3

Under 2.5

2.20

2.14

1.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Napoli in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Napoli in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance at home.
Napoli, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Napoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Bologna

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Sassuolo

H

0

2

L

U

N

25 Oct

Benevento

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Atalanta

H

4

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Juventus

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Sep

Genoa

H

6

0

W

O

N

20 Sep

Parma

A

2

0

W

U

N


Milan in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milan in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Milan’s performance as a guest.
Milan, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Milan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Verona

H

2

2

D

O

G

01 Nov

Udinese

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Oct

Roma

H

3

3

D

O

G

17 Oct

Inter

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Spezia

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Sep

Crotone

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Sep

Bologna

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Napoli and the red line for guest team, Milan.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Napoli

29%

14%

42%

15%

Milan

32%

27%

26%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Napoli to score 1.52 goals and Milan to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Napoli to score 1.43 goals and Milan to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

4.63

1

8.13

2-3

2.04

2

3.98

4+

3.44

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.28

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.63

5

10.10

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.14

Gg

2.08

Ov 3.5

3.44

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.41

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.70

2.32

2.81

2-3 goals

1.64

12.92

3.19

4+ goals

3.68

2.20

3.64

Ov 1.5

2.07

4.60

3.34

Un 1.5

4.70

2.32

2.81

Ov 2.5

2.20

4.02

3.36

Un 2.5

2.55

3.56

3.05

Ov 3.5

3.68

2.20

3.64

Un 3.5

2.05

5.40

3.06

Goal-Goal

2.49

2.82

4.10

No Goal

2.24

5.57

2.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

3.35

3.78

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

5.57

2.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Verona vs Sassuolo at 22 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Verona and Sassuolo for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 22 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Verona

3.12

2.54