# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Spezia vs Atalanta at 21 November 2020**** Crotone vs Lazio at 21 November 2020**** Juventus vs Cagliari at 21 November 2020**** Napoli vs Milan at 22 November 2020**** Verona vs Sassuolo at 22 November 2020**** Udinese vs Genoa at 22 November 2020**** Roma vs Parma at 22 November 2020**** Inter vs Torino at 22 November 2020**** Fiorentina vs Benevento at 22 November 2020**** Sampdoria vs Bologna at 22 November 2020**

###
Spezia vs Atalanta at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Spezia** and **Atalanta** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Spezia |
6.25 |
7.14 |
-2.0 |

Draw |
5.10 |
1.64 |
41.4 |

Atalanta |
1.46 |
3.95 |
-43.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.35 |
5.46 |
-55.8 |

Under 2.5 |
3.18 |
1.22 |
50.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Under 2.5 (41.4 %, 50.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Spezia** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Spezia** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance** at home**.

Spezia,** at home**, had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 7 results of Spezia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Benevento |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Parma |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Fiorentina |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Milan |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

30 Sep |
Udinese |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Sassuolo |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Atalanta** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Atalanta** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance** as a guest**.

Atalanta,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 7 results of Atalanta was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Inter |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Crotone |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Sampdoria |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Napoli |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Cagliari |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Sep |
Lazio |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Torino |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Spezia** and the red line for guest team, **Atalanta. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Spezia |
60% |
-21% |
71% |
-10% |

Atalanta |
58% |
-9% |
36% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Spezia** to score **0.88 ** goals and **Atalanta** to score **2.68 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.56** goals in the game and the guest team **Atalanta ** to win by **1.8** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Spezia** to score **0.91 ** goals and **Atalanta** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
2.87 |
0-1 |
5.92 |

1 |
-5.59 |
2-3 |
1.85 |

2 |
1.54 |
4+ |
3.44 |

3 |
-9.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.20 |

4 |
4.31 |
Un 1.5 |
5.92 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
5.46 |

6+ |
-66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.22 |

Gg |
5.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.44 |

NoG |
1.20 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
-1.37 |
0.49 |
-3.02 |

2-3 goals |
1.87 |
27.05 |
2.33 |

4+ goals |
-10.78 |
1.21 |
3.78 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.18 |
3.19 |
2.69 |

Un 1.5 |
-1.37 |
0.49 |
-3.02 |

Ov 2.5 |
-1.20 |
0.76 |
1.95 |

Un 2.5 |
2.81 |
2.22 |
5.14 |

Ov 3.5 |
-10.78 |
1.21 |
3.78 |

Un 3.5 |
4.28 |
1.93 |
4.03 |

Goal-Goal |
-1.79 |
0.64 |
168.00 |

No Goal |
3.58 |
2.39 |
3.31 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
-1.57 |
0.61 |
148.00 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.74 |
2.39 |
5.02 |

####
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###
Crotone vs Lazio at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crotone** and **Lazio** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crotone |
4.47 |
2.88 |
12.4 |

Draw |
4.01 |
3.48 |
3.8 |

Lazio |
1.74 |
2.73 |
-20.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.60 |
1.89 |
-9.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.32 |
2.13 |
3.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crotone, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.4 %, 3.8 %, 3.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crotone** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crotone** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance** at home**.

Crotone,** at home**, had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Crotone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Torino |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Atalanta |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Cagliari |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Oct |
Sassuolo |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Sep |
Milan |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Sep |
Genoa |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Lazio** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lazio scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lazio** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lazio** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance** as a guest**.

Lazio,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lazio scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Lazio was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Nov |
Torino |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Bologna |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Sampdoria |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Oct |
Inter |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Sep |
Atalanta |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Cagliari |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crotone** and the red line for guest team, **Lazio. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crotone |
37% |
0% |
54% |
8% |

Lazio |
31% |
21% |
28% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crotone** to score **0.98 ** goals and **Lazio** to score **1.97 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.95** goals in the game and the guest team **Lazio ** to win by **0.99** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crotone** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Lazio** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.62 |
0-1 |
5.13 |

1 |
12.66 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
3.64 |
4+ |
3.15 |

3 |
4.72 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.24 |

4 |
5.81 |
Un 1.5 |
5.13 |

5 |
7.75 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |

Gg |
2.31 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.15 |

NoG |
1.76 |
Un 3.5 |
1.47 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
195.00 |
1.68 |
2.50 |

2-3 goals |
1.59 |
487.00 |
2.71 |

4+ goals |
7.93 |
1.86 |
2.96 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.32 |
4.70 |
2.80 |

Un 1.5 |
195.00 |
1.68 |
2.50 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.97 |
3.11 |
2.92 |

Un 2.5 |
2.78 |
4.02 |
2.55 |

Ov 3.5 |
7.93 |
1.86 |
2.96 |

Un 3.5 |
2.22 |
5.83 |
2.64 |

Goal-Goal |
2.82 |
2.53 |
4.00 |

No Goal |
2.92 |
4.89 |
2.21 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.82 |
2.54 |
3.99 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.78 |
4.89 |
2.55 |

####
Go to Top

###
Juventus vs Cagliari at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Juventus** and **Cagliari** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Juventus |
1.34 |
2.00 |
-24.6 |

Draw |
5.59 |
2.88 |
16.8 |

Cagliari |
8.73 |
6.54 |
3.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.43 |
2.83 |
-34.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.74 |
1.55 |
28.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Cagliari, Under 2.5 (16.8 %, 3.8 %, 28 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Juventus** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Juventus** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance** at home**.

Juventus,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Juventus was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Lazio |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Nov |
Spezia |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Verona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Crotone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
Napoli |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Sep |
Roma |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Sep |
Sampdoria |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Cagliari** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cagliari scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cagliari** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cagliari** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cagliari’s performance** as a guest**.

Cagliari,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cagliari** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 7 results of Cagliari was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Sampdoria |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Bologna |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Crotone |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Torino |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Atalanta |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Lazio |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Sep |
Sassuolo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Juventus** and the red line for guest team, **Cagliari. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Juventus |
28% |
11% |
45% |
16% |

Cagliari |
69% |
-9% |
34% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Juventus** to score **2.65 ** goals and **Cagliari** to score **0.65 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.3** goals in the game and the home team **Juventus ** to win by **2** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Juventus** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Cagliari** to score **0.75 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and the home team **Juventus ** to win by **0.74** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
5.18 |
0-1 |
4.05 |

1 |
18.52 |
2-3 |
1.92 |

2 |
2.50 |
4+ |
4.31 |

3 |
8.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |

5 |
13.16 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.84 |

6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.55 |

Gg |
4.55 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |

NoG |
1.28 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.17 |
1.28 |
-10.29 |

2-3 goals |
1.36 |
-52.00 |
3.54 |

4+ goals |
5.95 |
1.41 |
8.00 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.78 |
4.88 |
4.27 |

Un 1.5 |
3.17 |
1.28 |
-10.29 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.29 |
2.15 |
4.35 |

Un 2.5 |
1.65 |
3.54 |
9.11 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.95 |
1.41 |
8.00 |

Un 3.5 |
1.66 |
4.19 |
6.24 |

Goal-Goal |
-220.00 |
1.43 |
3.28 |

No Goal |
1.55 |
4.04 |
9.16 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
-230.00 |
1.40 |
3.43 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.67 |
4.04 |
9.25 |

####
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###
Napoli vs Milan at 22 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Napoli** and **Milan** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **22 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Napoli |
2.36 |
2.36 |
0.0 |

Draw |
3.56 |
3.79 |
-1.7 |

Milan |
3.00 |
3.21 |
-2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.88 |
-5.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.14 |
1.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (1.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Napoli** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Napoli** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance** at home**.

Napoli,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Napoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Bologna |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Sassuolo |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Benevento |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Atalanta |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Juventus |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Sep |
Genoa |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Sep |
Parma |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Milan** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Milan** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Milan** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Milan** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Milan’s performance** as a guest**.

Milan,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Milan** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Milan was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Verona |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Udinese |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Oct |
Roma |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Inter |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Spezia |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Sep |
Crotone |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Sep |
Bologna |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Napoli** and the red line for guest team, **Milan. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Napoli |
29% |
14% |
42% |
15% |

Milan |
32% |
27% |
26% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Napoli** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Milan** to score **1.28 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.81** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Napoli** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Milan** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.75 |
0-1 |
4.63 |

1 |
8.13 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
3.44 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |

4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
4.63 |

5 |
10.10 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.14 |

Gg |
2.08 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.44 |

NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.70 |
2.32 |
2.81 |

2-3 goals |
1.64 |
12.92 |
3.19 |

4+ goals |
3.68 |
2.20 |
3.64 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.07 |
4.60 |
3.34 |

Un 1.5 |
4.70 |
2.32 |
2.81 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
4.02 |
3.36 |

Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
3.56 |
3.05 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.68 |
2.20 |
3.64 |

Un 3.5 |
2.05 |
5.40 |
3.06 |

Goal-Goal |
2.49 |
2.82 |
4.10 |

No Goal |
2.24 |
5.57 |
2.67 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
3.35 |
3.78 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
5.57 |
2.80 |

####
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###
Verona vs Sassuolo at 22 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Verona** and **Sassuolo** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **22 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Verona |
3.12 |
2.54 |