# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Frosinone vs Cosenza at 20 November 2020**** Pordenone vs Monza at 21 November 2020**** Vicenza vs Chievo at 21 November 2020**** Cittadella vs Empoli at 21 November 2020**** Brescia vs Venezia at 21 November 2020**** Lecce vs Reggiana at 21 November 2020**** Spal vs Pescara at 21 November 2020**** Reggina vs Pisa at 22 November 2020**** Ascoli vs Virtus Entella at 22 November 2020**** Salernitana vs Cremonese at 23 November 2020**

###
Frosinone vs Cosenza at 20 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Frosinone** and **Cosenza** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **20 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Frosinone |
1.79 |
2.05 |
-7.1 |

Draw |
3.22 |
3.66 |
-3.7 |

Cosenza |
5.27 |
4.18 |
4.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.38 |
0.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.73 |
-5.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cosenza, Over 2.5 (4.9 %, 0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Frosinone** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Frosinone** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance** at home**.

Frosinone,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 7 results of Frosinone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Monza |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Pescara |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Virtus Entella |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Ascoli |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Venezia |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Sep |
Empoli |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Cosenza** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cosenza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cosenza** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cosenza scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cosenza’s performance** as a guest**.

Cosenza,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cosenza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Cosenza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Brescia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Chievo |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Lecce |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Reggina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Oct |
Spal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Sep |
Virtus Entella |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Frosinone** and the red line for guest team, **Cosenza. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Frosinone |
18% |
48% |
12% |
21% |

Cosenza |
42% |
33% |
18% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Frosinone** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Cosenza** to score **0.7 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.14** goals in the game and the home team **Frosinone ** to win by **0.75** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Frosinone** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Cosenza** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and the home team **Frosinone ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
2.97 |

1 |
3.83 |
2-3 |
2.13 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
5.18 |

3 |
4.37 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.51 |

4 |
7.75 |
Un 1.5 |
2.97 |

5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.73 |

Gg |
2.10 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.18 |

NoG |
1.91 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.68 |
4.43 |
5.62 |

2-3 goals |
2.61 |
2.97 |
3.56 |

4+ goals |
1.79 |
4.95 |
4.20 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.37 |
3.72 |

Un 1.5 |
1.68 |
4.43 |
5.62 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.78 |
10.82 |
2.89 |

Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.47 |
6.28 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.79 |
4.95 |
4.20 |

Un 3.5 |
2.12 |
3.45 |
4.20 |

Goal-Goal |
3.22 |
2.42 |
3.61 |

No Goal |
1.53 |
6.88 |
4.93 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
8.18 |
2.42 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.67 |
6.88 |
4.57 |

####
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###
Pordenone vs Monza at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Pordenone** and **Monza** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Pordenone |
3.02 |
2.65 |
4.6 |

Draw |
3.02 |
3.46 |
-4.2 |

Monza |
2.41 |
3.00 |
-8.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.32 |
-3.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.76 |
-2.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Pordenone (4.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Pordenone** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pordenone** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance** at home**.

Pordenone,** at home**, had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 7 results of Pordenone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Reggina |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Cittadella |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Spal |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Sep |
Lecce |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Monza** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Monza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Monza** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Monza** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance** as a guest**.

Monza,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Monza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Monza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Frosinone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Cittadella |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Pisa |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Oct |
Empoli |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

25 Sep |
Spal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Pordenone** and the red line for guest team, **Monza. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Pordenone |
26% |
39% |
23% |
12% |

Monza |
30% |
39% |
20% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Pordenone** to score **1.06 ** goals and **Monza** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.18** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Pordenone** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Monza** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.38 |

1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.66 |
4+ |
5.05 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.38 |

5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.05 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.53 |
3.79 |
2.93 |

2-3 goals |
2.63 |
3.32 |
3.14 |

4+ goals |
2.91 |
3.36 |
2.79 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.70 |
3.33 |
3.03 |

Un 1.5 |
2.53 |
3.79 |
2.93 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
7.29 |
2.39 |

Un 2.5 |
3.06 |
2.47 |
3.72 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.91 |
3.36 |
2.79 |

Un 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.48 |
3.06 |

Goal-Goal |
3.30 |
2.45 |
3.45 |

No Goal |
2.19 |
6.17 |
2.63 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
6.20 |
2.44 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.17 |
2.73 |

####
Go to Top

###
Vicenza vs Chievo at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Vicenza** and **Chievo** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Vicenza |
3.35 |
2.66 |
7.7 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.60 |
-2.6 |

Chievo |
2.32 |
2.89 |
-8.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.37 |
2.15 |
4.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.87 |
-8.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Vicenza, Over 2.5 (7.7 %, 4.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Vicenza** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vicenza** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance** at home**.

Vicenza,** at home**, had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 6 results of Vicenza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Cremonese |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Pisa |
H |
4 |
4 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Spal |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Salernitana |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Oct |
Pordenone |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Sep |
Venezia |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Chievo** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chievo** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance** as a guest**.

Chievo,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 6 results of Chievo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Pordenone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Cosenza |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Monza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Brescia |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Salernitana |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Pescara |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Vicenza** and the red line for guest team, **Chievo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Vicenza |
27% |
34% |
29% |
11% |

Chievo |
28% |
38% |
21% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Vicenza** to score **0.95 ** goals and **Chievo** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.18** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.28** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Vicenza** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Chievo** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.70 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.70 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.90 |
3.65 |
2.62 |

2-3 goals |
2.33 |
3.94 |
3.16 |

4+ goals |
3.49 |
2.93 |
2.68 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.57 |
3.00 |

Un 1.5 |
2.90 |
3.65 |
2.62 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |
6.21 |
2.48 |

Un 2.5 |
3.10 |
2.63 |
3.37 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.49 |
2.93 |
2.68 |

Un 3.5 |
2.50 |
3.83 |
2.95 |

Goal-Goal |
3.06 |
2.60 |
3.48 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
6.35 |
2.42 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
5.36 |
2.63 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
6.35 |
2.55 |

####
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###
Cittadella vs Empoli at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cittadella** and **Empoli** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cittadella |
2.42 |
2.09 |
6.5 |

Draw |
3.10 |
3.76 |
-5.7 |

Empoli |
2.95 |
3.89 |
-8.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.19 |
-5.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.84 |
-0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cittadella (6.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cittadella** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cittadella** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cittadella** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cittadella** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance** at home**.

Cittadella,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cittadella** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 6 results of Cittadella was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Pescara |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Monza |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Pordenone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Cosenza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
Brescia |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Sep |
Cremonese |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Empoli** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Empoli scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Empoli** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Empoli scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Empoli’s performance** as a guest**.

Empoli,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Empoli scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 6 results of Empoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Reggina |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Venezia |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Oct |
Pisa |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Spal |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Pescara |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Monza |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Sep |
Frosinone |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cittadella** and the red line for guest team, **Empoli. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cittadella |
21% |
36% |
25% |
18% |

Empoli |
38% |
34% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cittadella** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Empoli** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cittadella** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Empoli** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Cittadella ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.47 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.65 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.65 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.09 |
3.65 |
4.06 |

2-3 goals |
2.02 |
4.03 |
3.91 |

4+ goals |
2.31 |
3.41 |
3.64 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.10 |
3.82 |
3.82 |

Un 1.5 |
2.09 |
3.65 |
4.06 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
7.22 |
3.10 |

Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.69 |
4.95 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.41 |
3.64 |

Un 3.5 |
2.04 |
3.88 |
3.96 |

Goal-Goal |
2.77 |
2.63 |
3.86 |

No Goal |
1.70 |
6.44 |
3.92 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.83 |
2.89 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.81 |
6.44 |
3.83 |

####
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###
Brescia vs Venezia at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Brescia** and **Venezia** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Brescia |
2.15 |
2.57 |
-7.6 |

Draw |
3.23 |
3.33 |
-0.9 |

Venezia |
3.47 |
3.22 |
2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.99 |
2.46 |
-9.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.83 |
1.69 |
4.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Venezia, Under 2.5 (2.2 %, 4.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Brescia** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Brescia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brescia** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Brescia scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brescia’s performance** at home**.

Brescia,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Brescia** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 6 results of Brescia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |