Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Frosinone vs Cosenza at 20 November 2020
Pordenone vs Monza at 21 November 2020
Vicenza vs Chievo at 21 November 2020
Cittadella vs Empoli at 21 November 2020
Brescia vs Venezia at 21 November 2020
Lecce vs Reggiana at 21 November 2020
Spal vs Pescara at 21 November 2020
Reggina vs Pisa at 22 November 2020
Ascoli vs Virtus Entella at 22 November 2020
Salernitana vs Cremonese at 23 November 2020
Frosinone vs Cosenza at 20 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Frosinone and Cosenza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 20 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Frosinone |
1.79 |
2.05 |
-7.1 |
|
Draw |
3.22 |
3.66 |
-3.7 |
|
Cosenza |
5.27 |
4.18 |
4.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.38 |
0.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.73 |
-5.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Cosenza, Over 2.5 (4.9 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Frosinone in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Frosinone in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance at home.
Frosinone, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 7 results of Frosinone was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Monza |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Nov |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Pescara |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Oct |
Virtus Entella |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Ascoli |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Venezia |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Sep |
Empoli |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Cosenza in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cosenza in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Cosenza’s performance as a guest.
Cosenza, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Cosenza was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Brescia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Chievo |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
25 Oct |
Lecce |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Reggina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Spal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Sep |
Virtus Entella |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Frosinone and the red line for guest team, Cosenza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Frosinone |
18% |
48% |
12% |
21% |
|
Cosenza |
42% |
33% |
18% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.45 goals and Cosenza to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the home team Frosinone to win by 0.75 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.36 goals and Cosenza to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the home team Frosinone to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
2.97 |
|
1 |
3.83 |
2-3 |
2.13 |
|
2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
5.18 |
|
3 |
4.37 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.51 |
|
4 |
7.75 |
Un 1.5 |
2.97 |
|
5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.73 |
|
Gg |
2.10 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.18 |
|
NoG |
1.91 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.68 |
4.43 |
5.62 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.61 |
2.97 |
3.56 |
|
4+ goals |
1.79 |
4.95 |
4.20 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.37 |
3.72 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.68 |
4.43 |
5.62 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.78 |
10.82 |
2.89 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.47 |
6.28 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.79 |
4.95 |
4.20 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.12 |
3.45 |
4.20 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.22 |
2.42 |
3.61 |
|
No Goal |
1.53 |
6.88 |
4.93 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
8.18 |
2.42 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.67 |
6.88 |
4.57 |
Go to Top
Pordenone vs Monza at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Pordenone and Monza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Pordenone |
3.02 |
2.65 |
4.6 |
|
Draw |
3.02 |
3.46 |
-4.2 |
|
Monza |
2.41 |
3.00 |
-8.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.32 |
-3.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.76 |
-2.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Pordenone (4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Pordenone in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance at home.
Pordenone, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 7 results of Pordenone was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Reggina |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Cittadella |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Spal |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Sep |
Lecce |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Monza in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monza in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance as a guest.
Monza, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Monza was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Frosinone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Cittadella |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Pisa |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Empoli |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
25 Sep |
Spal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pordenone and the red line for guest team, Monza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Pordenone |
26% |
39% |
23% |
12% |
|
Monza |
30% |
39% |
20% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.06 goals and Monza to score 1.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.2 goals and Monza to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.38 |
|
1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.66 |
4+ |
5.05 |
|
3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |
|
4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.38 |
|
5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |
|
Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.05 |
|
NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.53 |
3.79 |
2.93 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.63 |
3.32 |
3.14 |
|
4+ goals |
2.91 |
3.36 |
2.79 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.70 |
3.33 |
3.03 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.53 |
3.79 |
2.93 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
7.29 |
2.39 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.06 |
2.47 |
3.72 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.91 |
3.36 |
2.79 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.48 |
3.06 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.30 |
2.45 |
3.45 |
|
No Goal |
2.19 |
6.17 |
2.63 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
6.20 |
2.44 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.17 |
2.73 |
Go to Top
Vicenza vs Chievo at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Vicenza and Chievo for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Vicenza |
3.35 |
2.66 |
7.7 |
|
Draw |
3.29 |
3.60 |
-2.6 |
|
Chievo |
2.32 |
2.89 |
-8.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.37 |
2.15 |
4.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.87 |
-8.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Vicenza, Over 2.5 (7.7 %, 4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Vicenza in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vicenza in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance at home.
Vicenza, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 6 results of Vicenza was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Cremonese |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Pisa |
H |
4 |
4 |
D |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Spal |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Salernitana |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Pordenone |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Sep |
Venezia |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Chievo in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chievo in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance as a guest.
Chievo, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Chievo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Pordenone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Cosenza |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Monza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Brescia |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Salernitana |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Sep |
Pescara |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vicenza and the red line for guest team, Chievo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Vicenza |
27% |
34% |
29% |
11% |
|
Chievo |
28% |
38% |
21% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vicenza to score 0.95 goals and Chievo to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vicenza to score 1.24 goals and Chievo to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.70 |
|
1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
1.95 |
|
2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
4.55 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.70 |
|
5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
|
Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |
|
NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.90 |
3.65 |
2.62 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.33 |
3.94 |
3.16 |
|
4+ goals |
3.49 |
2.93 |
2.68 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.57 |
3.00 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.90 |
3.65 |
2.62 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |
6.21 |
2.48 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.10 |
2.63 |
3.37 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.49 |
2.93 |
2.68 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.50 |
3.83 |
2.95 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.06 |
2.60 |
3.48 |
|
No Goal |
2.33 |
6.35 |
2.42 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
5.36 |
2.63 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
6.35 |
2.55 |
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Cittadella vs Empoli at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Cittadella and Empoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Cittadella |
2.42 |
2.09 |
6.5 |
|
Draw |
3.10 |
3.76 |
-5.7 |
|
Empoli |
2.95 |
3.89 |
-8.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.19 |
-5.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.84 |
-0.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Cittadella (6.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Cittadella in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cittadella in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance at home.
Cittadella, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Cittadella was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Nov |
Pescara |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Monza |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Pordenone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Cosenza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
04 Oct |
Brescia |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
27 Sep |
Cremonese |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Empoli in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Empoli in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Empoli’s performance as a guest.
Empoli, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Empoli was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Reggina |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Venezia |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Oct |
Pisa |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Spal |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Pescara |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Monza |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Sep |
Frosinone |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cittadella and the red line for guest team, Empoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Cittadella |
21% |
36% |
25% |
18% |
|
Empoli |
38% |
34% |
19% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cittadella to score 1.32 goals and Empoli to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cittadella to score 1.4 goals and Empoli to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Cittadella to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.47 |
|
1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.65 |
|
3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |
|
5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |
|
Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.65 |
|
NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.09 |
3.65 |
4.06 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.02 |
4.03 |
3.91 |
|
4+ goals |
2.31 |
3.41 |
3.64 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.10 |
3.82 |
3.82 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.09 |
3.65 |
4.06 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
7.22 |
3.10 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.69 |
4.95 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.41 |
3.64 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.04 |
3.88 |
3.96 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.77 |
2.63 |
3.86 |
|
No Goal |
1.70 |
6.44 |
3.92 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.83 |
2.89 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.81 |
6.44 |
3.83 |
Go to Top
Brescia vs Venezia at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Brescia and Venezia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Brescia |
2.15 |
2.57 |
-7.6 |
|
Draw |
3.23 |
3.33 |
-0.9 |
|
Venezia |
3.47 |
3.22 |
2.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.99 |
2.46 |
-9.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.83 |
1.69 |
4.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Venezia, Under 2.5 (2.2 %, 4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Brescia in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brescia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Brescia’s performance at home.
Brescia, at home, had one win, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Brescia was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |