# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis at 21 November 2020**** Atromitos vs Apollon at 21 November 2020**** Olympiakos vs Panathinaikos at 21 November 2020**** PAOK vs Giannina at 22 November 2020**** Panetolikos vs Aris at 22 November 2020**** AEK vs Larisa at 22 November 2020**** Volos NFC vs OFI Crete at 23 November 2020**

###
Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lamia** and **Asteras Tripolis** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lamia |
3.28 |
3.11 |
1.7 |

Draw |
3.00 |
3.42 |
-4.1 |

Asteras Tripolis |
2.32 |
2.59 |
-4.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.74 |
2.83 |
-1.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.42 |
1.55 |
-5.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Lamia (1.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lamia** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lamia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lamia** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance** at home**.

Lamia,** at home**, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lamia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 6 results of Lamia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Oct |
Panathinaikos |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Oct |
Panetolikos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Oct |
Volos NFC |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Sep |
AEK |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Sep |
OFI Crete |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Sep |
Aris |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Asteras Tripolis** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Asteras Tripolis** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance** as a guest**.

Asteras Tripolis,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 6 results of Asteras Tripolis was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Nov |
Aris |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
OFI Crete |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Larisa |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Sep |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Sep |
Panathinaikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lamia** and the red line for guest team, **Asteras Tripolis. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lamia |
48% |
16% |
29% |
7% |

Asteras Tripolis |
37% |
33% |
19% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lamia** to score **0.85 ** goals and **Asteras Tripolis** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.94** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.23** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lamia** to score **0.94 ** goals and **Asteras Tripolis** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **1.98** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
5.71 |
0-1 |
2.53 |

1 |
4.55 |
2-3 |
2.19 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
6.76 |

3 |
4.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.66 |

4 |
10.53 |
Un 1.5 |
2.53 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.83 |

6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.55 |

Gg |
3.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.76 |

NoG |
1.49 |
Un 3.5 |
1.18 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
6.58 |
2.26 |
2.47 |

2-3 goals |
2.02 |
8.29 |
2.61 |

4+ goals |
4.11 |
2.39 |
2.96 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.31 |
5.16 |
2.68 |

Un 1.5 |
6.58 |
2.26 |
2.47 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
5.69 |
2.63 |

Un 2.5 |
3.92 |
2.81 |
2.57 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.11 |
2.39 |
2.96 |

Un 3.5 |
2.98 |
3.70 |
2.54 |

Goal-Goal |
2.50 |
2.82 |
4.07 |

No Goal |
3.52 |
3.82 |
2.20 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
4.44 |
3.40 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.58 |
3.82 |
2.35 |

####
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###
Atromitos vs Apollon at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Atromitos** and **Apollon** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Atromitos |
1.73 |
1.81 |
-2.6 |

Draw |
3.18 |
3.92 |
-5.9 |

Apollon |
5.07 |
5.24 |
-0.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.32 |
2.35 |
-0.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.74 |
-6.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Atromitos** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Atromitos** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance** at home**.

Atromitos,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Panathinaikos |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Giannina |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Oct |
Panetolikos |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Oct |
AEK |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Sep |
PAOK |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Sep |
Volos NFC |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Apollon** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Apollon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance** as a guest**.

Apollon,** as a guest**, had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon** didn’t score to any of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
PAOK |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Oct |
Giannina |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Aris |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Atromitos** and the red line for guest team, **Apollon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Atromitos |
23% |
30% |
24% |
23% |

Apollon |
47% |
36% |
11% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Atromitos** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Apollon** to score **0.7 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and the home team **Atromitos ** to win by **0.76** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Atromitos** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Apollon** to score **0.78 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.26** goals in the game and the home team **Atromitos ** to win by **0.7** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.43 |
0-1 |
3.05 |

1 |
4.50 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
5.41 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |

4 |
7.81 |
Un 1.5 |
3.05 |

5 |
23.81 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.34 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.75 |

Gg |
2.43 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.41 |

NoG |
1.70 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.33 |
3.09 |
4.05 |

2-3 goals |
1.59 |
4.55 |
6.58 |

4+ goals |
1.73 |
4.40 |
5.14 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.63 |
4.51 |
6.11 |

Un 1.5 |
2.33 |
3.09 |
4.05 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.42 |
10.17 |
5.02 |

Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.69 |
5.41 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.73 |
4.40 |
5.14 |

Un 3.5 |
1.82 |
3.83 |
5.26 |

Goal-Goal |
2.13 |
2.77 |
5.89 |

No Goal |
1.63 |
5.55 |
4.86 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
7.26 |
4.36 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
5.55 |
4.40 |

####
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###
Olympiakos vs Panathinaikos at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Olympiakos** and **Panathinaikos** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Olympiakos |
1.43 |
2.12 |
-22.8 |

Draw |
4.25 |
3.53 |
4.8 |

Panathinaikos |
7.35 |
4.10 |
10.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.42 |
-5.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.70 |
0.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Panathinaikos, Under 2.5 (4.8 %, 10.8 %, 0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Olympiakos** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Olympiakos** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Olympiakos** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Olympiakos** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Olympiakos’s performance** at home**.

Olympiakos,** at home**, had 4 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 12 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Olympiakos** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 6 results of Olympiakos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Apollon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Atromitos |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

04 Oct |
Giannina |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Sep |
Panetolikos |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Sep |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Panathinaikos** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Panathinaikos** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance** as a guest**.

Panathinaikos,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 6 results of Panathinaikos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Atromitos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Apollon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Lamia |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Volos NFC |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Aris |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Sep |
Larisa |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Sep |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Olympiakos** and the red line for guest team, **Panathinaikos. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Olympiakos |
45% |
9% |
14% |
32% |

Panathinaikos |
50% |
34% |
14% |
2% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Olympiakos** to score **1.78 ** goals and **Panathinaikos** to score **0.55 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the home team **Olympiakos ** to win by **1.23** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Olympiakos** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Panathinaikos** to score **0.69 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.01** goals in the game and the home team **Olympiakos ** to win by **0.63** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
4.44 |
0-1 |
2.37 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
2.54 |

2 |
6.06 |
4+ |
5.46 |

3 |
4.37 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.73 |

4 |
7.81 |
Un 1.5 |
2.37 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |

6+ |
142.86 |
Un 2.5 |
1.70 |

Gg |
3.65 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.46 |

NoG |
1.38 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
9.38 |
1.88 |
2.78 |

2-3 goals |
1.43 |
13.13 |
4.48 |

4+ goals |
1.21 |
6.78 |
36.60 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
10.12 |
6.20 |

Un 1.5 |
9.38 |
1.88 |
2.78 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.16 |
15.26 |
14.21 |

Un 2.5 |
5.06 |
2.30 |
2.72 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.21 |
6.78 |
36.60 |

Un 3.5 |
2.54 |
3.20 |
3.40 |

Goal-Goal |
1.38 |
4.81 |
15.22 |

No Goal |
2.66 |
3.22 |
3.19 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.23 |
9.04 |
13.56 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
4.80 |
3.22 |
2.58 |

####
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###
PAOK vs Giannina at 22 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **PAOK** and **Giannina** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **22 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

PAOK |
1.23 |
2.51 |
-41.5 |

Draw |
5.68 |
3.75 |
9.1 |

Giannina |
11.19 |
2.99 |
24.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.76 |
2.41 |
-15.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
1.71 |
10.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Giannina, Under 2.5 (9.1 %, 24.5 %, 10.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**PAOK** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **PAOK** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance** at home**.

PAOK,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of PAOK was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Apollon |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Panetolikos |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
AEK |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
OFI Crete |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

26 Sep |
Volos NFC |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

18 Sep |
Atromitos |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Sep |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Giannina** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Giannina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Giannina** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Giannina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Giannina’s performance** as a guest**.

Giannina,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Giannina** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Giannina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Panetolikos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Nov |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Atromitos |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
AEK |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Oct |
Apollon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Volos NFC |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Sep |
Aris |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **PAOK** and the red line for guest team, **Giannina. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

PAOK |
36% |
28% |
16% |
20% |

Giannina |
34% |
33% |
30% |
3% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **PAOK** to score **2.26 ** goals and **Giannina** to score **0.45 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the home team **PAOK ** to win by **1.81** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **PAOK** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Giannina** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.40 |
0-1 |
3.02 |

1 |
4.72 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
5.05 |

3 |
4.59 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |

4 |
8.00 |
Un 1.5 |
3.02 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.40 |

6+ |
166.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.71 |

Gg |
2.33 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.05 |

NoG |
1.75 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.52 |
2.78 |
2.81 |

2-3 goals |
2.69 |
5.06 |
2.32 |

4+ goals |
1.52 |
3.67 |
14.14 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.19 |
4.55 |
3.08 |

Un 1.5 |
3.52 |
2.78 |
2.81 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
7.70 |
3.78 |

Un 2.5 |
3.97 |
2.75 |
2.60 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.52 |
3.67 |
14.14 |

Un 3.5 |
2.98 |
3.78 |
2.50 |

Goal-Goal |
2.34 |
2.92 |
4.33 |

No Goal |
2.64 |
4.80 |
2.42 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
6.22 |
3.39 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.34 |
4.80 |
2.18 |

####
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###
Panetolikos vs Aris at 22 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Panetolikos** and **Aris** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **22 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Panetolikos |
3.06 |
3.44 |
-3.6 |

Draw |
3.05 |
3.44 |
-3.7 |

Aris |
2.33 |
2.39 |
-1.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.77 |
-5.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.54 |