2020 11 19 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis at 21 November 2020
Atromitos vs Apollon at 21 November 2020
Olympiakos vs Panathinaikos at 21 November 2020
PAOK vs Giannina at 22 November 2020
Panetolikos vs Aris at 22 November 2020
AEK vs Larisa at 22 November 2020
Volos NFC vs OFI Crete at 23 November 2020


Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Lamia and Asteras Tripolis for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lamia

3.28

3.11

1.7

Draw

3.00

3.42

-4.1

Asteras Tripolis

2.32

2.59

-4.5

Over 2.5

2.74

2.83

-1.2

Under 2.5

1.42

1.55

-5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lamia (1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lamia in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lamia in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance at home.
Lamia, at home, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Lamia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Oct

Panathinaikos

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Oct

Panetolikos

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Oct

Volos NFC

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Sep

AEK

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Sep

OFI Crete

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Sep

Aris

A

1

3

L

O

G


Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance as a guest.
Asteras Tripolis, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Asteras Tripolis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Nov

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Oct

OFI Crete

H

1

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

Larisa

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Panetolikos

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Sep

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Sep

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lamia and the red line for guest team, Asteras Tripolis.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lamia

48%

16%

29%

7%

Asteras Tripolis

37%

33%

19%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lamia to score 0.85 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.94 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lamia to score 0.94 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.98 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.71

0-1

2.53

1

4.55

2-3

2.19

2

3.98

4+

6.76

3

4.88

Ov 1.5

1.66

4

10.53

Un 1.5

2.53

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.83

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.55

Gg

3.03

Ov 3.5

6.76

NoG

1.49

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

6.58

2.26

2.47

2-3 goals

2.02

8.29

2.61

4+ goals

4.11

2.39

2.96

Ov 1.5

2.31

5.16

2.68

Un 1.5

6.58

2.26

2.47

Ov 2.5

2.25

5.69

2.63

Un 2.5

3.92

2.81

2.57

Ov 3.5

4.11

2.39

2.96

Un 3.5

2.98

3.70

2.54

Goal-Goal

2.50

2.82

4.07

No Goal

3.52

3.82

2.20

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.08

4.44

3.40

NG+Un 2.5

3.58

3.82

2.35


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Atromitos vs Apollon at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Atromitos and Apollon for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atromitos

1.73

1.81

-2.6

Draw

3.18

3.92

-5.9

Apollon

5.07

5.24

-0.6

Over 2.5

2.32

2.35

-0.6

Under 2.5

1.57

1.74

-6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atromitos in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance at home.
Atromitos, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Panathinaikos

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Giannina

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Oct

Panetolikos

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Olympiakos

A

0

4

L

O

N

04 Oct

AEK

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

OFI Crete

A

2

2

D

O

G

18 Sep

PAOK

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Sep

Volos NFC

H

0

2

L

U

N


Apollon in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance as a guest.
Apollon, as a guest, had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon didn’t score to any of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

PAOK

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Nov

Panathinaikos

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Olympiakos

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Oct

Giannina

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

04 Oct

Larisa

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atromitos and the red line for guest team, Apollon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atromitos

23%

30%

24%

23%

Apollon

47%

36%

11%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.46 goals and Apollon to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team Atromitos to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.48 goals and Apollon to score 0.78 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Atromitos to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.43

0-1

3.05

1

4.50

2-3

2.05

2

4.08

4+

5.41

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

7.81

Un 1.5

3.05

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.34

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.43

Ov 3.5

5.41

NoG

1.70

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.33

3.09

4.05

2-3 goals

1.59

4.55

6.58

4+ goals

1.73

4.40

5.14

Ov 1.5

1.63

4.51

6.11

Un 1.5

2.33

3.09

4.05

Ov 2.5

1.42

10.17

5.02

Un 2.5

2.26

2.69

5.41

Ov 3.5

1.73

4.40

5.14

Un 3.5

1.82

3.83

5.26

Goal-Goal

2.13

2.77

5.89

No Goal

1.63

5.55

4.86

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.58

7.26

4.36

NG+Un 2.5

1.83

5.55

4.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Olympiakos vs Panathinaikos at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Olympiakos and Panathinaikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Olympiakos

1.43

2.12

-22.8

Draw

4.25

3.53

4.8

Panathinaikos

7.35

4.10

10.8

Over 2.5

2.13

2.42

-5.6

Under 2.5

1.72

1.70

0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Panathinaikos, Under 2.5 (4.8 %, 10.8 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Olympiakos in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Olympiakos in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Olympiakos’s performance at home.
Olympiakos, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 12 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 6 results of Olympiakos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

OFI Crete

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Apollon

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Atromitos

H

4

0

W

O

N

04 Oct

Giannina

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Sep

Panetolikos

H

2

0

W

U

N

18 Sep

Asteras Tripolis

H

3

0

W

O

N


Panathinaikos in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panathinaikos in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance as a guest.
Panathinaikos, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Panathinaikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Atromitos

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Apollon

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Lamia

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Volos NFC

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

OFI Crete

A

2

2

D

O

G

04 Oct

Aris

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Sep

Larisa

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Sep

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Olympiakos and the red line for guest team, Panathinaikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Olympiakos

45%

9%

14%

32%

Panathinaikos

50%

34%

14%

2%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Olympiakos to score 1.78 goals and Panathinaikos to score 0.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Olympiakos to win by 1.23 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Olympiakos to score 1.32 goals and Panathinaikos to score 0.69 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.01 goals in the game and the home team Olympiakos to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

4.44

0-1

2.37

1

5.08

2-3

2.54

2

6.06

4+

5.46

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.73

4

7.81

Un 1.5

2.37

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.43

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.70

Gg

3.65

Ov 3.5

5.46

NoG

1.38

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

9.38

1.88

2.78

2-3 goals

1.43

13.13

4.48

4+ goals

1.21

6.78

36.60

Ov 1.5

1.35

10.12

6.20

Un 1.5

9.38

1.88

2.78

Ov 2.5

1.16

15.26

14.21

Un 2.5

5.06

2.30

2.72

Ov 3.5

1.21

6.78

36.60

Un 3.5

2.54

3.20

3.40

Goal-Goal

1.38

4.81

15.22

No Goal

2.66

3.22

3.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.23

9.04

13.56

NG+Un 2.5

4.80

3.22

2.58


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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PAOK vs Giannina at 22 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Giannina for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 22 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

PAOK

1.23

2.51

-41.5

Draw

5.68

3.75

9.1

Giannina

11.19

2.99

24.5

Over 2.5

1.76

2.41

-15.3

Under 2.5

2.07

1.71

10.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Giannina, Under 2.5 (9.1 %, 24.5 %, 10.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

PAOK in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PAOK in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance at home.
PAOK, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of PAOK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Apollon

A

3

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Panetolikos

A

3

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

AEK

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

OFI Crete

H

3

0

W

O

N

26 Sep

Volos NFC

A

0

0

D

U

N

18 Sep

Atromitos

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Sep

Larisa

H

1

0

W

U

N


Giannina in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Giannina in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Giannina’s performance as a guest.
Giannina, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Giannina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Panetolikos

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Nov

Larisa

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Atromitos

A

2

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

AEK

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Oct

Apollon

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Volos NFC

A

1

2

L

O

G

04 Oct

Olympiakos

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Sep

Aris

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, PAOK and the red line for guest team, Giannina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

PAOK

36%

28%

16%

20%

Giannina

34%

33%

30%

3%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PAOK to score 2.26 goals and Giannina to score 0.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the home team PAOK to win by 1.81 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PAOK to score 1.21 goals and Giannina to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.40

0-1

3.02

1

4.72

2-3

2.12

2

3.95

4+

5.05

3

4.59

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.00

Un 1.5

3.02

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.40

6+

166.67

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

2.33

Ov 3.5

5.05

NoG

1.75

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.52

2.78

2.81

2-3 goals

2.69

5.06

2.32

4+ goals

1.52

3.67

14.14

Ov 1.5

2.19

4.55

3.08

Un 1.5

3.52

2.78

2.81

Ov 2.5

1.65

7.70

3.78

Un 2.5

3.97

2.75

2.60

Ov 3.5

1.52

3.67

14.14

Un 3.5

2.98

3.78

2.50

Goal-Goal

2.34

2.92

4.33

No Goal

2.64

4.80

2.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.84

6.22

3.39

NG+Un 2.5

3.34

4.80

2.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Panetolikos vs Aris at 22 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Panetolikos and Aris for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 22 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Panetolikos

3.06

3.44

-3.6

Draw

3.05

3.44

-3.7

Aris

2.33

2.39

-1.1

Over 2.5

2.43

2.77

-5.1

Under 2.5

1.54