# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Scunthorpe vs Bolton at 24 November 2020**** Tranmere vs Carlisle at 24 November 2020**** Barrow vs Oldham at 24 November 2020**** Southend vs Forest Green at 24 November 2020**** Salford vs Morecambe at 24 November 2020**** Newport County vs Walsall at 24 November 2020**** Mansfield vs Harrogate at 24 November 2020**** Leyton Orient vs Bradford at 24 November 2020**** Exeter vs Colchester at 24 November 2020**** Crawley Town vs Grimsby at 24 November 2020**** Cheltenham vs Cambridge at 24 November 2020**** Stevenage vs Port Vale at 24 November 2020**

###
Scunthorpe vs Bolton at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Scunthorpe** and **Bolton** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **24 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Scunthorpe |
2.98 |
2.64 |
4.3 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.58 |
-2.0 |

Bolton |
2.39 |
2.92 |
-7.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.36 |
-4.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.73 |
-0.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Scunthorpe (4.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** at home**.

Scunthorpe,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Nov |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Nov |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Oct |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** as a guest**.

Bolton,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Nov |
Stevenage |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Nov |
Salford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Oct |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Barrow |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Scunthorpe** and the red line for guest team, **Bolton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Scunthorpe |
33% |
29% |
26% |
12% |

Bolton |
32% |
37% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.62 |
0-1 |
3.15 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
5.18 |

3 |
4.37 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
7.81 |
Un 1.5 |
3.15 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |

Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.18 |

NoG |
1.85 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.41 |
3.05 |
2.64 |

2-3 goals |
2.24 |
4.56 |
2.99 |

4+ goals |
2.88 |
2.88 |
3.27 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.91 |
3.07 |

Un 1.5 |
3.41 |
3.05 |
2.64 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.30 |
2.74 |

Un 2.5 |
3.25 |
2.73 |
3.06 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.88 |
2.88 |
3.27 |

Un 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.82 |
2.84 |

Goal-Goal |
2.80 |
2.62 |
3.83 |

No Goal |
2.52 |
5.21 |
2.43 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.21 |
2.93 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.65 |
5.21 |
2.49 |

####
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###
Tranmere vs Carlisle at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Tranmere** and **Carlisle** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **24 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Tranmere |
2.77 |
2.78 |
-0.1 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.69 |
-3.3 |

Carlisle |
2.57 |
2.72 |
-2.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.14 |
-0.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.88 |
-4.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Tranmere** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tranmere** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance** at home**.

Tranmere,** at home**, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Nov |
Grimsby |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Port Vale |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Morecambe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Southend |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Carlisle** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Carlisle** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance** as a guest**.

Carlisle,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Nov |
Crawley Town |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Newport County |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Morecambe |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Colchester |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Tranmere** and the red line for guest team, **Carlisle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Tranmere |
31% |
30% |
26% |
12% |

Carlisle |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Tranmere** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Carlisle** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Tranmere** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Carlisle** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.63 |
0-1 |
3.56 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.37 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.56 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.27 |
3.27 |
2.58 |

2-3 goals |
2.44 |
4.56 |
2.69 |

4+ goals |
3.14 |
2.94 |
2.94 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.63 |
3.88 |
2.77 |

Un 1.5 |
3.27 |
3.27 |
2.58 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
6.01 |
2.47 |

Un 2.5 |
3.34 |
2.75 |
2.97 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.14 |
2.94 |
2.94 |

Un 3.5 |
2.69 |
3.99 |
2.65 |

Goal-Goal |
3.01 |
2.69 |
3.38 |

No Goal |
2.58 |
5.85 |
2.27 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
5.03 |
2.65 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.66 |
5.85 |
2.37 |

####
Go to Top

###
Barrow vs Oldham at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Barrow** and **Oldham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **24 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Barrow |
2.19 |
2.11 |
1.7 |

Draw |
3.48 |
3.80 |
-2.4 |

Oldham |
3.25 |
3.79 |
-4.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.83 |
2.02 |
-5.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.99 |
1.98 |
0.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Barrow, Under 2.5 (1.7 %, 0.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Barrow** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barrow** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance** at home**.

Barrow,** at home**, had one win, 6 draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Nov |
Forest Green |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Mansfield |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Bolton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Oldham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oldham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance** as a guest**.

Oldham,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Nov |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Scunthorpe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Cheltenham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Salford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Southend |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Bolton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Barrow** and the red line for guest team, **Oldham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Barrow |
19% |
39% |
20% |
22% |

Oldham |
34% |
34% |
22% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Barrow** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.63** goals in the game and the home team **Barrow ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Barrow** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Barrow ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
3.82 |

1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.07 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.96 |
4.09 |
4.09 |

2-3 goals |
2.29 |
3.68 |
3.42 |

4+ goals |
1.98 |
3.73 |
4.39 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.69 |
3.69 |

Un 1.5 |
1.96 |
4.09 |
4.09 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
7.48 |
3.11 |

Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.56 |
4.83 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.98 |
3.73 |
4.39 |

Un 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.81 |
3.63 |

Goal-Goal |
2.76 |
2.68 |
3.79 |

No Goal |
1.67 |
7.28 |
3.79 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
6.08 |
2.84 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
7.28 |
3.55 |

####
Go to Top

###
Southend vs Forest Green at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Southend** and **Forest Green** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **24 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Southend |
6.66 |
3.46 |
13.9 |

Draw |
4.13 |
3.75 |
2.5 |

Forest Green |
1.51 |
2.25 |
-21.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.16 |
-5.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.86 |
-0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Southend, Draw (13.9 %, 2.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Southend** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southend** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance** at home**.

Southend,** at home**, had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Nov |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Salford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Oct |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Exeter |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Forest Green** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Forest Green** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance** as a guest**.

Forest Green,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Nov |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Morecambe |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Colchester |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Southend** and the red line for guest team, **Forest Green. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Southend |
36% |
33% |
18% |
13% |

Forest Green |
21% |
38% |
25% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Southend** to score **0.64 ** goals and **Forest Green** to score **1.84 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the guest team **Forest Green ** to win by **1.2** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Southend** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Forest Green** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.53 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.37 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.53 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.04 |
3.72 |
2.07 |

2-3 goals |