2020 11 24 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bournemouth vs Nott’m Forest at 24 November 2020
Luton vs Birmingham at 24 November 2020
Preston vs Blackburn at 24 November 2020
QPR vs Rotherham at 24 November 2020
Stoke vs Norwich at 24 November 2020
Wycombe vs Huddersfield at 24 November 2020
Barnsley vs Brentford at 24 November 2020


Bournemouth vs Nott’m Forest at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bournemouth and Nott’m Forest for Championship (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bournemouth

1.78

1.73

1.6

Draw

3.62

4.20

-3.8

Nott’m Forest

4.80

5.41

-2.3

Over 2.5

1.99

2.02

-0.7

Under 2.5

1.83

1.98

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bournemouth (1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bournemouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bournemouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance at home.
Bournemouth, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Reading

H

4

2

W

O

G

07 Nov

Birmingham

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Sheffield Weds

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Derby

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Oct

Bristol City

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Watford

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Oct

Cardiff

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

QPR

H

0

0

D

U

N


Nott’m Forest in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nott’m Forest in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nott’m Forest’s performance as a guest.
Nott’m Forest, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nott’m Forest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Barnsley

A

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Wycombe

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Nov

Coventry

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Middlesbrough

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Oct

Luton

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Oct

Derby

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Oct

Rotherham

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Blackburn

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bournemouth and the red line for guest team, Nott’m Forest.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bournemouth

17%

28%

29%

25%

Nott’m Forest

40%

40%

12%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 1.64 goals and Nott’m Forest to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 0.83 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 1.62 goals and Nott’m Forest to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.95

1

5.46

2-3

1.93

2

3.97

4+

4.31

3

3.76

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.95

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.22

3.61

3.67

2-3 goals

1.54

4.62

7.40

4+ goals

1.80

4.14

4.94

Ov 1.5

1.61

4.46

6.41

Un 1.5

2.22

3.61

3.67

Ov 2.5

1.44

8.89

5.19

Un 2.5

2.17

2.77

5.61

Ov 3.5

1.80

4.14

4.94

Un 3.5

1.71

4.24

5.55

Goal-Goal

2.02

2.95

6.05

No Goal

1.52

7.24

4.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.56

6.86

4.68

NG+Un 2.5

1.69

7.24

4.37


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Luton vs Birmingham at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Luton and Birmingham for Championship (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Luton

2.82

2.09

12.4

Draw

3.15

3.53

-3.4

Birmingham

2.69

4.20

-13.4

Over 2.5

2.33

2.32

0.2

Under 2.5

1.63

1.76

-4.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Luton, Over 2.5 (12.4 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Luton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Luton in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance at home.
Luton, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Blackburn

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Huddersfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Nov

Rotherham

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Brentford

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Oct

Nott’m Forest

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Sheffield Weds

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Millwall

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Oct

Stoke

H

0

2

L

U

N


Birmingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Birmingham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance as a guest.
Birmingham, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Nov

Coventry

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Bournemouth

H

1

3

L

O

G

04 Nov

Wycombe

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Preston

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Oct

Huddersfield

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

QPR

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Oct

Norwich

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Sheffield Weds

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Luton and the red line for guest team, Birmingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Luton

23%

37%

17%

22%

Birmingham

38%

41%

10%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Luton to score 1.08 goals and Birmingham to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Luton to score 1.39 goals and Birmingham to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Luton to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.07

1

4.20

2-3

2.17

2

4.12

4+

4.69

3

4.59

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.07

5

25.00

Ov 2.5

2.32

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

1.91

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.28

3.70

3.43

2-3 goals

2.08

2.99

5.42

4+ goals

1.87

5.20

3.67

Ov 1.5

2.01

3.46

4.71

Un 1.5

2.28

3.70

3.43

Ov 2.5

1.60

10.51

3.59

Un 2.5

2.72

2.35

4.82

Ov 3.5

1.87

5.20

3.67

Un 3.5

2.16

3.25

4.37

Goal-Goal

2.57

2.44

4.96

No Goal

1.78

5.95

3.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.74

7.85

3.35

NG+Un 2.5

1.99

5.95

3.52


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Preston vs Blackburn at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Preston and Blackburn for Championship (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Preston

2.63

2.98

-4.5

Draw

3.36

3.68

-2.6

Blackburn

2.72

2.55

2.5

Over 2.5

1.92

2.19

-6.4

Under 2.5

1.90

1.84

1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Blackburn, Under 2.5 (2.5 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Preston in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance at home.
Preston, at home, had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Sheffield Weds

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Rotherham

A

1

2

L

O

G

04 Nov

Reading

A

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Birmingham

H

1

2

L

O

G

28 Oct

Millwall

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Huddersfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Oct

QPR

A

2

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

Cardiff

H

0

1

L

U

N


Blackburn in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance as a guest.
Blackburn, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Luton

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

QPR

H

3

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Middlesbrough

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Swansea

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Oct

Reading

H

2

4

L

O

G

24 Oct

Coventry

A

4

0

W

O

N

21 Oct

Watford

A

1

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

Nott’m Forest

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Preston and the red line for guest team, Blackburn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Preston

30%

38%

18%

14%

Blackburn

29%

31%

26%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Preston to score 1.28 goals and Blackburn to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Preston to score 1.15 goals and Blackburn to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.40

1

4.85

2-3

2.06

2

4.02

4+

4.52

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.40

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

3.34

3.13

2-3 goals

3.34

4.08

2.19

4+ goals

2.80

3.40

2.87

Ov 1.5

3.15

3.84

2.37

Un 1.5

2.62

3.34

3.13

Ov 2.5

2.64

7.03

2.09

Un 2.5

3.33

2.62

3.14

Ov 3.5

2.80

3.40

2.87

Un 3.5

3.03

3.76

2.47

Goal-Goal

3.71

2.68

2.79

No Goal

2.49

5.75

2.35

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.82

5.77

2.12

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

5.75

2.45


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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QPR vs Rotherham at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between QPR and Rotherham for Championship (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

QPR

2.22

2.03

4.2

Draw

3.42

3.82

-3.1

Rotherham

3.33

4.10

-5.6

Over 2.5

1.95

2.11

-3.9

Under 2.5

1.89

1.90

-0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at QPR (4.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

QPR in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, QPR in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance at home.
QPR, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Watford

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Blackburn

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Nov

Derby

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Cardiff

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Oct

Barnsley

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Oct

Birmingham

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Oct

Preston

H

0

2

L

U

N

17 Oct

Bournemouth

A

0

0

D

U

N


Rotherham in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance as a guest.
Rotherham, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Swansea

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Preston

H

2

1

W

O

G

04 Nov

Luton

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Stoke

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Oct

Sheffield Weds

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Oct

Reading

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Oct

Nott’m Forest

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Norwich

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, QPR and the red line for guest team, Rotherham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

QPR

23%

31%

24%

22%

Rotherham

36%

41%

13%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) QPR to score 1.43 goals and Rotherham to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team QPR to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) QPR to score 1.46 goals and Rotherham to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team QPR to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.52

1

4.93

2-3

2.06

2

4.12

4+

4.35

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.52

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.58

3.51

3.05

2-3 goals