2020 11 24 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Altrincham vs Bromley at 24 November 2020
Barnet vs Hartlepool at 24 November 2020
Wrexham vs Sutton at 24 November 2020


Altrincham vs Bromley at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Altrincham and Bromley for Conference (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Altrincham

3.01

3.18

-1.8

Draw

3.47

3.65

-1.4

Bromley

2.23

2.43

-3.7

Over 2.5

1.84

2.00

-4.3

Under 2.5

1.97

2.00

-0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Altrincham in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance at home.
Altrincham, at home, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Boreham Wood

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Chesterfield

H

3

2

W

O

G

14 Nov

Aldershot

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Nov

Solihull

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Wealdstone

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Dover Athletic

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Hartlepool

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Oct

Eastleigh

A

1

1

D

U

G


Bromley in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance as a guest.
Bromley, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Maidenhead

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Nov

Boreham Wood

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Barnet

A

3

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Eastleigh

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Oct

Weymouth

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Oct

Hartlepool

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Oct

Torquay

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Oct

Dover Athletic

H

4

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Altrincham and the red line for guest team, Bromley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Altrincham

25%

42%

21%

12%

Bromley

24%

33%

25%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.16 goals and Bromley to score 1.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.18 goals and Bromley to score 1.37 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.67

0-1

4.07

1

5.38

2-3

1.99

2

3.92

4+

3.98

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.07

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.76

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.32

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.44

4.10

2.89

2-3 goals

3.46

3.54

2.33

4+ goals

3.75

3.49

2.24

Ov 1.5

3.55

3.52

2.30

Un 1.5

2.44

4.10

2.89

Ov 2.5

3.06

6.92

1.89

Un 2.5

3.34

2.48

3.36

Ov 3.5

3.75

3.49

2.24

Un 3.5

3.04

3.70

2.49

Goal-Goal

4.18

2.65

2.61

No Goal

2.44

7.18

2.22

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.13

5.92

1.95

NG+Un 2.5

2.39

7.18

2.41


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Barnet vs Hartlepool at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Barnet and Hartlepool for Conference (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barnet

3.44

4.07

-4.5

Draw

3.64

3.77

-0.9

Hartlepool

1.96

2.04

-2.0

Over 2.5

1.74

1.93

-5.7

Under 2.5

2.05

2.08

-0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barnet in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnet in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance at home.
Barnet, at home, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnet was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Woking

A

1

4

L

O

G

17 Nov

King’s Lynn

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Nov

Bromley

H

1

3

L

O

G

27 Oct

Wrexham

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Oct

Weymouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Oct

Notts County

A

2

4

L

O

G

06 Oct

Dag and Red

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Eastleigh

H

1

5

L

O

G


Hartlepool in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance as a guest.
Hartlepool, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Yeovil

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Nov

Wrexham

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Torquay

H

0

5

L

O

N

27 Oct

Altrincham

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Oct

Bromley

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Oct

Maidenhead

A

4

0

W

O

N

06 Oct

Chesterfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Aldershot

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barnet and the red line for guest team, Hartlepool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barnet

28%

45%

17%

10%

Hartlepool

18%

32%

27%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnet to score 1.08 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the guest team Hartlepool to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnet to score 1.08 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.53 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Hartlepool to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.87

0-1

4.39

1

5.71

2-3

1.96

2

3.95

4+

3.80

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.65

Un 1.5

4.39

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.71

Ov 3.5

3.80

NoG

2.40

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.75

4.30

2.48

2-3 goals

4.94

3.51

1.95

4+ goals

4.46

3.87

1.93

Ov 1.5

4.77

3.62

1.94

Un 1.5

2.75

4.30

2.48

Ov 2.5

3.96

7.63

1.62

Un 2.5

4.22

2.43

2.85

Ov 3.5

4.46

3.87

1.93

Un 3.5

3.96

3.72

2.09

Goal-Goal

5.17

2.74

2.26

No Goal

3.15

7.85

1.80

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.88

6.46

1.70

NG+Un 2.5

2.95

7.85

1.99


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wrexham vs Sutton at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Sutton for Conference (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wrexham

2.44

3.09

-8.6

Draw

3.42

3.64

-1.8

Sutton

2.63

2.50

2.0

Over 2.5

1.91

2.00

-2.4

Under 2.5

1.85

2.00

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sutton (2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wrexham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Aldershot

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Hartlepool

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Barnet

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Wealdstone

A

3

4

L

O

G

12 Oct

Maidenhead

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Oct

Yeovil

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Oct

Solihull

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Oct

Boreham Wood

H

2

1

W

O

G


Sutton in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance as a guest.
Sutton, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Wealdstone

A

3

3

D

O

G

17 Nov

Dag and Red

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

King’s Lynn

H

5

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Yeovil

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Oct

Notts County

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Oct

Weymouth

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Oct

Aldershot

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Maidenhead

H

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Sutton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wrexham

24%

42%

21%

12%

Sutton

24%

34%

25%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.29 goals and Sutton to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.2 goals and Sutton to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.67

0-1

4.07

1

5.38

2-3

1.99

2

3.94

4+

3.97

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.07

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.75

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.33

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

4.10

3.00

2-3 goals

3.32

3.54

2.40

4+ goals

3.60

3.45

2.31

Ov 1.5

3.41

3.51

2.37

Un 1.5

2.37

4.10

3.00

Ov 2.5

2.94

6.85

1.95

Un 2.5

3.23

2.48

3.50

Ov 3.5

3.60

3.45

2.31

Un 3.5

2.93

3.70

2.57

Goal-Goal

4.05

2.66

2.66

No Goal

2.33

7.15

2.32

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.04

5.88

2.00

NG+Un 2.5

2.31

7.15

2.50


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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