2020 11 24 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Burton vs Charlton at 24 November 2020
Rochdale vs Northampton at 24 November 2020
Portsmouth vs Oxford at 24 November 2020
Peterboro vs Plymouth at 24 November 2020
Milton Keynes Dons vs Shrewsbury at 24 November 2020
Ipswich vs Hull at 24 November 2020
Swindon vs Lincoln at 24 November 2020
Doncaster vs Blackpool at 24 November 2020
Wigan vs Bristol Rvs at 24 November 2020
Accrington vs Crewe at 24 November 2020
Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon at 24 November 2020


Burton vs Charlton at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Burton and Charlton for League One (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Burton

3.62

3.16

4.0

Draw

3.41

3.92

-3.8

Charlton

2.07

2.33

-5.4

Over 2.5

1.98

1.95

0.8

Under 2.5

1.84

2.05

-5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Burton, Over 2.5 (4 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Burton in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance at home.
Burton, at home, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Northampton

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Nov

Hull

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Nov

Shrewsbury

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Blackpool

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Oct

Peterboro

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Oct

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Oct

Rochdale

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Bristol Rvs

A

1

1

D

U

G


Charlton in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Charlton in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance as a guest.
Charlton, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Gillingham

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Fleetwood Town

H

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Portsmouth

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Oxford

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Northampton

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Blackpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Wigan

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Sunderland

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Burton and the red line for guest team, Charlton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Burton

34%

27%

23%

15%

Charlton

21%

37%

24%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burton to score 0.99 goals and Charlton to score 1.48 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the guest team Charlton to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burton to score 1.19 goals and Charlton to score 1.39 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.91

1

5.41

2-3

2.10

2

4.31

4+

3.75

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.91

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.05

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.75

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.57

3.61

1.98

2-3 goals

2.87

4.72

2.27

4+ goals

2.84

3.18

3.00

Ov 1.5

2.86

4.02

2.49

Un 1.5

4.57

3.61

1.98

Ov 2.5

2.42

6.10

2.37

Un 2.5

4.69

2.84

2.30

Ov 3.5

2.84

3.18

3.00

Un 3.5

3.30

4.26

2.16

Goal-Goal

2.88

2.81

3.37

No Goal

3.54

6.77

1.76

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.32

4.98

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

3.72

6.77

1.83


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Rochdale vs Northampton at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Rochdale and Northampton for League One (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rochdale

2.39

2.48

-1.5

Draw

3.55

3.64

-0.7

Northampton

2.84

3.11

-3.1

Over 2.5

1.86

2.11

-6.4

Under 2.5

1.96

1.90

1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rochdale in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance at home.
Rochdale, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

AFC Wimbledon

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Oxford

A

1

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Bristol Rvs

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Oct

Sunderland

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Oct

Shrewsbury

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Burton

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Hull

H

0

3

L

O

N

10 Oct

Accrington

A

1

2

L

O

G


Northampton in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance as a guest.
Northampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Burton

A

3

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Accrington

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Milton Keynes Dons

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Wigan

A

3

2

W

O

G

27 Oct

Portsmouth

A

0

4

L

O

N

24 Oct

Charlton

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Oct

Swindon

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Plymouth

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rochdale and the red line for guest team, Northampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rochdale

25%

35%

24%

16%

Northampton

29%

36%

24%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.38 goals and Northampton to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.31 goals and Northampton to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.72

1

5.13

2-3

2.00

2

3.89

4+

4.31

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.72

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.59

3.64

2.96

2-3 goals

2.45

3.91

2.98

4+ goals

2.39

3.18

3.74

Ov 1.5

2.43

3.64

3.18

Un 1.5

2.59

3.64

2.96

Ov 2.5

2.06

6.51

2.78

Un 2.5

3.02

2.60

3.51

Ov 3.5

2.39

3.18

3.74

Un 3.5

2.50

3.81

2.97

Goal-Goal

2.89

2.63

3.65

No Goal

2.13

6.38

2.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.19

5.49

2.77

NG+Un 2.5

2.29

6.38

2.65


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Portsmouth vs Oxford at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Portsmouth and Oxford for League One (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Portsmouth

1.91

1.96

-1.3

Draw

3.69

3.83

-1.0

Oxford

3.87

4.39

-3.1

Over 2.5

1.84

2.17

-8.3

Under 2.5

1.98

1.85

3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (3.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Portsmouth in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance at home.
Portsmouth, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Crewe

H

4

1

W

O

G

16 Nov

Plymouth

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Nov

Lincoln

A

3

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Charlton

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Oct

Northampton

H

4

0

W

O

N

24 Oct

Sunderland

A

3

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Gillingham

A

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Doncaster

H

0

1

L

U

N


Oxford in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance as a guest.
Oxford, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Wigan

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Nov

Crewe

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Nov

Rochdale

H

3

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Fleetwood Town

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Oct

Charlton

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Oct

Milton Keynes Dons

H

3

2

W

O

G

17 Oct

Peterboro

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Oct

Gillingham

A

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Portsmouth and the red line for guest team, Oxford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Portsmouth

18%

37%

27%

18%

Oxford

39%

35%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.64 goals and Oxford to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.46 goals and Oxford to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.64

1

4.85

2-3

1.96

2

3.77

4+

4.63

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.64

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.91

3.99

4.44

2-3 goals

1.89

3.89

4.71

4+ goals

2.25

3.48

3.72

Ov 1.5

1.98

3.76

4.37

Un 1.5

1.91

3.99

4.44

Ov 2.5

1.76

7.42

3.38

Un 2.5

2.18

2.70

5.87

Ov 3.5

2.25

3.48

3.72

Un 3.5

1.89

3.92

4.61

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.61

4.19

No Goal

1.55

7.20

4.60

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.96

6.00

3.10

NG+Un 2.5

1.65

7.20

4.45


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Peterboro vs Plymouth at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Peterboro and Plymouth for League One (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Peterboro

1.84

2.02

-4.8

Draw

3.81

3.69

0.9

Plymouth

4.10

4.29

-1.1

Over 2.5

1.69

2.29

-15.5

Under 2.5

2.19

1.77

10.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 10.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Peterboro in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance at home.
Peterboro, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Blackpool

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Nov

Crewe

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Nov

Bristol Rvs

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Shrewsbury

H

5

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Burton

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Oct

Hull

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Wigan

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Oxford

H

2

0

W

U

N


Plymouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Plymouth in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance as a guest.
Plymouth, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Fleetwood Town

A

1

5

L

O

G

16 Nov

Portsmouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Nov

Swindon

H

4

2

W

O

G

27 Oct

Doncaster

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Wigan

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Oct

Lincoln

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Oct

Northampton

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Oct

Burton

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Peterboro and the red line for guest team, Plymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Peterboro

18%

41%

24%

17%

Plymouth

39%

35%

18%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.81 goals and Plymouth to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.4 goals and Plymouth to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.42

1

4.48

2-3

1.96

2

3.68

4+

5.08

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.41

Un 1.5

3.42

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.29

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

5.08

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-