Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Scunthorpe vs Bolton at 24 November 2020
Tranmere vs Carlisle at 24 November 2020
Barrow vs Oldham at 24 November 2020
Southend vs Forest Green at 24 November 2020
Salford vs Morecambe at 24 November 2020
Newport County vs Walsall at 24 November 2020
Mansfield vs Harrogate at 24 November 2020
Leyton Orient vs Bradford at 24 November 2020
Exeter vs Colchester at 24 November 2020
Crawley Town vs Grimsby at 24 November 2020
Cheltenham vs Cambridge at 24 November 2020
Stevenage vs Port Vale at 24 November 2020
Scunthorpe vs Bolton at 24 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Scunthorpe and Bolton for League Two (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Scunthorpe |
2.98 |
2.64 |
4.3 |
|
Draw |
3.34 |
3.58 |
-2.0 |
|
Bolton |
2.39 |
2.92 |
-7.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.36 |
-4.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.73 |
-0.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Scunthorpe (4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Scunthorpe in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance at home.
Scunthorpe, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Nov |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Nov |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Bolton in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance as a guest.
Bolton, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Stevenage |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Nov |
Salford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Nov |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Barrow |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Scunthorpe and the red line for guest team, Bolton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Scunthorpe |
33% |
29% |
26% |
12% |
|
Bolton |
32% |
37% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.07 goals and Bolton to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.17 goals and Bolton to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
9.62 |
0-1 |
3.15 |
|
1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.05 |
|
2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
5.18 |
|
3 |
4.37 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
|
4 |
7.81 |
Un 1.5 |
3.15 |
|
5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |
|
Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.18 |
|
NoG |
1.85 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.41 |
3.05 |
2.64 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.24 |
4.56 |
2.99 |
|
4+ goals |
2.88 |
2.88 |
3.27 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.91 |
3.07 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.41 |
3.05 |
2.64 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.30 |
2.74 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.25 |
2.73 |
3.06 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.88 |
2.88 |
3.27 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.82 |
2.84 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.80 |
2.62 |
3.83 |
|
No Goal |
2.52 |
5.21 |
2.43 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.21 |
2.93 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.65 |
5.21 |
2.49 |
Go to Top
Tranmere vs Carlisle at 24 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Tranmere and Carlisle for League Two (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Tranmere |
2.77 |
2.78 |
-0.1 |
|
Draw |
3.29 |
3.69 |
-3.3 |
|
Carlisle |
2.57 |
2.72 |
-2.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.14 |
-0.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.88 |
-4.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Tranmere in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tranmere in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance at home.
Tranmere, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Grimsby |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
14 Nov |
Port Vale |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Nov |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Morecambe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Southend |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Carlisle in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance as a guest.
Carlisle, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Crawley Town |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
14 Nov |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Nov |
Newport County |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Morecambe |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Colchester |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tranmere and the red line for guest team, Carlisle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Tranmere |
31% |
30% |
26% |
12% |
|
Carlisle |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.15 goals and Carlisle to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.21 goals and Carlisle to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.63 |
0-1 |
3.56 |
|
1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.37 |
|
3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.56 |
|
5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
|
Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |
|
NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.27 |
3.27 |
2.58 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.44 |
4.56 |
2.69 |
|
4+ goals |
3.14 |
2.94 |
2.94 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.63 |
3.88 |
2.77 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.27 |
3.27 |
2.58 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
6.01 |
2.47 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.34 |
2.75 |
2.97 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.14 |
2.94 |
2.94 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.69 |
3.99 |
2.65 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.01 |
2.69 |
3.38 |
|
No Goal |
2.58 |
5.85 |
2.27 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
5.03 |
2.65 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.66 |
5.85 |
2.37 |
Go to Top
Barrow vs Oldham at 24 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Barrow and Oldham for League Two (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Barrow |
2.19 |
2.11 |
1.7 |
|
Draw |
3.48 |
3.80 |
-2.4 |
|
Oldham |
3.25 |
3.79 |
-4.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.83 |
2.02 |
-5.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.99 |
1.98 |
0.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Barrow, Under 2.5 (1.7 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Barrow in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barrow in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance at home.
Barrow, at home, had one win, 6 draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barrow was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Forest Green |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
14 Nov |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Nov |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Mansfield |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Bolton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Oldham in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oldham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance as a guest.
Oldham, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oldham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
14 Nov |
Scunthorpe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Nov |
Cheltenham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Salford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Southend |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Bolton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barrow and the red line for guest team, Oldham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Barrow |
19% |
39% |
20% |
22% |
|
Oldham |
34% |
34% |
22% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.5 goals and Oldham to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and the home team Barrow to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.46 goals and Oldham to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Barrow to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
3.82 |
|
1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.07 |
|
3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |
|
5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
|
Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |
|
NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.96 |
4.09 |
4.09 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.29 |
3.68 |
3.42 |
|
4+ goals |
1.98 |
3.73 |
4.39 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.69 |
3.69 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.96 |
4.09 |
4.09 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
7.48 |
3.11 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.56 |
4.83 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.98 |
3.73 |
4.39 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.81 |
3.63 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.76 |
2.68 |
3.79 |
|
No Goal |
1.67 |
7.28 |
3.79 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
6.08 |
2.84 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
7.28 |
3.55 |
Go to Top
Southend vs Forest Green at 24 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Southend and Forest Green for League Two (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Southend |
6.66 |
3.46 |
13.9 |
|
Draw |
4.13 |
3.75 |
2.5 |
|
Forest Green |
1.51 |
2.25 |
-21.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.16 |
-5.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.86 |
-0.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Southend, Draw (13.9 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Southend in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southend in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance at home.
Southend, at home, had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southend was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Nov |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Nov |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Oct |
Salford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Exeter |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
Forest Green in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Forest Green in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance as a guest.
Forest Green, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
14 Nov |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Nov |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Morecambe |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Colchester |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Southend and the red line for guest team, Forest Green.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Southend |
36% |
33% |
18% |
13% |
|
Forest Green |
21% |
38% |
25% |
15% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southend to score 0.64 goals and Forest Green to score 1.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the guest team Forest Green to win by 1.2 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southend to score 1.08 goals and Forest Green to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.27 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.53 |
|
1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.37 |
|
3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.53 |
|
5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
|
6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |
|
NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
4.04 |
3.72 |
2.07 |
|
2-3 goals |