2020 11 25 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Barnsley vs Brentford at 24 November 2020
Luton vs Birmingham at 24 November 2020
Wycombe vs Huddersfield at 24 November 2020
Preston vs Blackburn at 24 November 2020
QPR vs Rotherham at 24 November 2020
Bournemouth vs Nott’m Forest at 24 November 2020
Stoke vs Norwich at 24 November 2020
Coventry vs Cardiff at 25 November 2020
Millwall vs Reading at 25 November 2020
Swansea vs Sheffield Weds at 25 November 2020
Middlesbrough vs Derby at 25 November 2020
Bristol City vs Watford at 25 November 2020


Barnsley vs Brentford at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Barnsley and Brentford for Championship (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barnsley

3.54

2.25

16.2

Draw

3.37

3.79

-3.3

Brentford

2.14

3.44

-17.7

Over 2.5

2.07

2.14

-1.6

Under 2.5

1.77

1.88

-3.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Barnsley (16.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barnsley in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnsley in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance at home.
Barnsley, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Nott’m Forest

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Derby

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Cardiff

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Oct

Watford

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

QPR

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Oct

Millwall

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Oct

Stoke

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Oct

Bristol City

H

2

2

D

O

G


Brentford in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance as a guest.
Brentford, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Wycombe

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Middlesbrough

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Nov

Swansea

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Luton

A

3

0

W

O

N

27 Oct

Norwich

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Stoke

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Oct

Sheffield Weds

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Coventry

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barnsley and the red line for guest team, Brentford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barnsley

27%

29%

24%

19%

Brentford

37%

33%

18%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnsley to score 0.98 goals and Brentford to score 1.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the guest team Brentford to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.35 goals and Brentford to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

3.36

1

5.05

2-3

2.12

2

4.27

4+

4.31

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.36

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.17

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.76

2.98

3.31

2-3 goals

1.96

4.86

3.51

4+ goals

2.37

3.46

3.46

Ov 1.5

2.08

4.29

3.50

Un 1.5

2.76

2.98

3.31

Ov 2.5

1.88

7.00

3.07

Un 2.5

2.70

2.70

3.86

Ov 3.5

2.37

3.46

3.46

Un 3.5

2.21

3.90

3.43

Goal-Goal

2.59

2.81

3.87

No Goal

2.01

5.40

3.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

5.43

3.06

NG+Un 2.5

2.21

5.40

3.15


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Luton vs Birmingham at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Luton and Birmingham for Championship (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Luton

2.82

2.09

12.4

Draw

3.15

3.53

-3.4

Birmingham

2.69

4.20

-13.4

Over 2.5

2.33

2.32

0.2

Under 2.5

1.63

1.76

-4.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Luton, Over 2.5 (12.4 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Luton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Luton in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance at home.
Luton, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Blackburn

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Huddersfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Nov

Rotherham

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Brentford

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Oct

Nott’m Forest

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Sheffield Weds

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Millwall

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Oct

Stoke

H

0

2

L

U

N


Birmingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Birmingham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance as a guest.
Birmingham, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Nov

Coventry

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Bournemouth

H

1

3

L

O

G

04 Nov

Wycombe

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Preston

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Oct

Huddersfield

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

QPR

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Oct

Norwich

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Sheffield Weds

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Luton and the red line for guest team, Birmingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Luton

23%

37%

17%

22%

Birmingham

38%

41%

10%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Luton to score 1.08 goals and Birmingham to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Luton to score 1.39 goals and Birmingham to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Luton to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.07

1

4.20

2-3

2.17

2

4.12

4+

4.69

3

4.59

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.07

5

25.00

Ov 2.5

2.32

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

1.91

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.28

3.70

3.43

2-3 goals

2.08

2.99

5.42

4+ goals

1.87

5.20

3.67

Ov 1.5

2.01

3.46

4.71

Un 1.5

2.28

3.70

3.43

Ov 2.5

1.60

10.51

3.59

Un 2.5

2.72

2.35

4.82

Ov 3.5

1.87

5.20

3.67

Un 3.5

2.16

3.25

4.37

Goal-Goal

2.57

2.44

4.96

No Goal

1.78

5.95

3.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.74

7.85

3.35

NG+Un 2.5

1.99

5.95

3.52


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Wycombe vs Huddersfield at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wycombe and Huddersfield for Championship (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wycombe

3.28

2.87

4.4

Draw

3.38

3.66

-2.3

Huddersfield

2.24

2.65

-6.9

Over 2.5

2.06

2.23

-3.7

Under 2.5

1.78

1.81

-0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe (4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wycombe in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance at home.
Wycombe, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Brentford

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Nott’m Forest

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Nov

Birmingham

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Sheffield Weds

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Watford

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Norwich

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Oct

Reading

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Millwall

H

1

2

L

O

G


Huddersfield in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance as a guest.
Huddersfield, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Stoke

A

3

4

L

O

G

07 Nov

Luton

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Bristol City

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Millwall

A

3

0

W

O

N

28 Oct

Birmingham

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Preston

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Oct

Derby

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Swansea

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wycombe and the red line for guest team, Huddersfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wycombe

33%

34%

18%

15%

Huddersfield

32%

32%

21%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.04 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.36 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the guest team Huddersfield to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.15 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.52

0-1

3.16

1

4.74

2-3

2.16

2

4.26

4+

4.52

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.16

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.98

3.01

3.01

2-3 goals

2.86

4.33

2.39

4+ goals

2.76

3.56

2.80

Ov 1.5

2.83

4.05

2.51

Un 1.5

2.98

3.01

3.01

Ov 2.5

2.43

7.24

2.22

Un 2.5

3.38

2.60

3.13

Ov 3.5

2.76

3.56

2.80

Un 3.5

2.91

3.67

2.61

Goal-Goal

3.34

2.70

3.03

No Goal

2.57

5.17

2.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.55

5.65

2.32

NG+Un 2.5

2.72

5.17

2.52


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Preston vs Blackburn at 24 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Preston and Blackburn for Championship (England), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Preston

2.63

2.98

-4.5

Draw

3.36

3.68

-2.6

Blackburn

2.72

2.55

2.5

Over 2.5

1.92

2.19

-6.4

Under 2.5

1.90

1.84

1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Blackburn, Under 2.5 (2.5 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Preston in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance at home.
Preston, at home, had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Sheffield Weds

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Rotherham

A

1

2

L

O

G

04 Nov

Reading

A

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Birmingham

H

1

2

L

O

G

28 Oct

Millwall

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Huddersfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Oct

QPR

A

2

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

Cardiff

H

0

1

L

U

N


Blackburn in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance as a guest.
Blackburn, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Luton

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

QPR

H

3

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Middlesbrough

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Swansea

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Oct

Reading

H

2

4

L

O

G

24 Oct

Coventry

A

4

0

W

O

N

21 Oct

Watford

A

1

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

Nott’m Forest

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Preston and the red line for guest team, Blackburn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Preston

30%

38%

18%

14%

Blackburn

29%

31%

26%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Preston to score 1.28 goals and Blackburn to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Preston to score 1.15 goals and Blackburn to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.40

1

4.85

2-3

2.06

2

4.02

4+

4.52

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.40

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

3.34

3.13

2-3 goals

3.34

4.08

2.19