2020 11 25 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lens vs Nantes at 25 November 2020


Lens vs Nantes at 25 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Lens and Nantes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 25 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lens

2.00

1.95

1.3

Draw

3.49

3.94

-3.3

Nantes

3.83

4.31

-2.9

Over 2.5

2.16

2.06

2.2

Under 2.5

1.72

1.94

-6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lens, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lens in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lens in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance at home.
Lens, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Dijon

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Reims

H

4

4

D

O

G

18 Oct

Lille

A

0

4

L

O

N

03 Oct

St Etienne

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Nimes

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Sep

Bordeaux

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Sep

Lorient

A

3

2

W

O

G

10 Sep

Paris SG

H

1

0

W

U

N


Nantes in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nantes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance as a guest.
Nantes, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Metz

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Lorient

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Paris SG

H

0

3

L

O

N

18 Oct

Brest

H

3

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Nice

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Sep

Lille

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Sep

St Etienne

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Sep

Monaco

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lens and the red line for guest team, Nantes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lens

22%

26%

34%

19%

Nantes

37%

36%

20%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lens to score 1.42 goals and Nantes to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Lens to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lens to score 1.49 goals and Nantes to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Lens to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.94

1

5.75

2-3

1.93

2

3.83

4+

4.41

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.94

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.17

3.22

2-3 goals

1.65

5.52

4.72

4+ goals

2.16

2.84

5.40

Ov 1.5

1.78

4.29

4.91

Un 1.5

2.67

3.17

3.22

Ov 2.5

1.64

6.06

4.45

Un 2.5

2.35

2.96

4.22

Ov 3.5

2.16

2.84

5.40

Un 3.5

1.89

4.44

4.09

Goal-Goal

2.18

2.84

5.31

No Goal

1.76

6.32

3.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.76

5.00

4.30

NG+Un 2.5

1.92

6.32

3.45


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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