Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Lugo vs Oviedo at 24 November 2020
Castellon vs Alcorcon at 24 November 2020
Girona vs Malaga at 24 November 2020
Cartagena vs Mallorca at 25 November 2020
Las Palmas vs Mirandes at 25 November 2020
Sp Gijon vs Sabadell at 25 November 2020
Zaragoza vs Vallecano at 25 November 2020
Fuenlabrada vs Ponferradina at 25 November 2020
Leganes vs Espanol at 26 November 2020
Almeria vs Tenerife at 26 November 2020
Logrones vs Albacete at 26 November 2020
Lugo vs Oviedo at 24 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Lugo and Oviedo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Lugo |
3.03 |
2.17 |
13.1 |
|
Draw |
2.85 |
3.62 |
-7.5 |
|
Oviedo |
2.62 |
3.77 |
-11.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.31 |
6.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.46 |
1.76 |
-11.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Lugo, Over 2.5 (13.1 %, 6.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Lugo in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lugo in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance at home.
Lugo, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lugo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Nov |
Alcorcon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Nov |
Albacete |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
07 Nov |
Espanol |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Nov |
Vallecano |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Oct |
Tenerife |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Logrones |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Oct |
Girona |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Oviedo in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oviedo in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance as a guest.
Oviedo, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Nov |
Zaragoza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
08 Nov |
Castellon |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Las Palmas |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Oct |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
25 Oct |
Leganes |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Oct |
Vallecano |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
18 Oct |
Girona |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lugo and the red line for guest team, Oviedo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Lugo |
24% |
35% |
26% |
16% |
|
Oviedo |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lugo to score 0.94 goals and Oviedo to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.98 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.33 goals and Oviedo to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Lugo to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.32 |
|
1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
1.99 |
|
2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.08 |
|
3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |
|
4 |
7.46 |
Un 1.5 |
3.32 |
|
5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |
|
Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.08 |
|
NoG |
1.94 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.46 |
3.42 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.05 |
3.92 |
3.89 |
|
4+ goals |
2.21 |
3.23 |
4.19 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
3.70 |
3.97 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.46 |
3.42 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
7.10 |
3.31 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
2.64 |
4.26 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.21 |
3.23 |
4.19 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.73 |
3.70 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
2.56 |
4.32 |
|
No Goal |
1.86 |
5.93 |
3.39 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
5.84 |
3.18 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.93 |
3.30 |
Go to Top
Castellon vs Alcorcon at 24 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Castellon and Alcorcon for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Castellon |
2.36 |
2.02 |
7.1 |
|
Draw |
2.84 |
3.76 |
-8.6 |
|
Alcorcon |
3.61 |
4.20 |
-3.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.21 |
10.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.43 |
1.83 |
-15.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Castellon, Over 2.5 (7.1 %, 10.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Castellon in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Castellon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Castellon’s performance at home.
Castellon, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Castellon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Nov |
Cartagena |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
08 Nov |
Oviedo |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
02 Nov |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Oct |
Almeria |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Girona |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Oct |
Las Palmas |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Lugo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Alcorcon in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alcorcon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Alcorcon’s performance as a guest.
Alcorcon, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 6.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Alcorcon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Nov |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Nov |
Leganes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Nov |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
05 Nov |
Ponferradina |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Nov |
Logrones |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Oct |
Sp Gijon |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Oct |
Mallorca |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Espanol |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Castellon and the red line for guest team, Alcorcon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Castellon |
21% |
34% |
26% |
18% |
|
Alcorcon |
38% |
37% |
18% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Castellon to score 1.09 goals and Alcorcon to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.91 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Castellon to score 1.42 goals and Alcorcon to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Castellon to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.52 |
|
1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
4.81 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |
|
5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
|
Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.81 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.18 |
3.64 |
3.74 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.92 |
4.02 |
4.36 |
|
4+ goals |
2.06 |
3.30 |
4.73 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.96 |
3.78 |
4.46 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.64 |
3.74 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |
7.16 |
3.70 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.68 |
4.80 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.06 |
3.30 |
4.73 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.01 |
3.87 |
4.11 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.50 |
2.61 |
4.61 |
|
No Goal |
1.69 |
6.47 |
3.91 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
5.83 |
3.43 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.84 |
6.47 |
3.69 |
Go to Top
Girona vs Malaga at 24 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Girona and Malaga for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 24 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Girona |
1.97 |
2.17 |
-4.7 |
|
Draw |
3.09 |
3.62 |
-4.7 |
|
Malaga |
4.33 |
3.77 |
3.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.81 |
2.31 |
7.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.41 |
1.76 |
-14.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Malaga, Over 2.5 (3.4 %, 7.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Girona in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Girona in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Girona’s performance at home.
Girona, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Girona was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Nov |
Espanol |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
14 Nov |
Mallorca |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Nov |
Las Palmas |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
04 Nov |
Zaragoza |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
01 Nov |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Cartagena |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Oct |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
Malaga in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Malaga in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Malaga’s performance as a guest.
Malaga, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Malaga was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Leganes |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Nov |
Ponferradina |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
08 Nov |
Sabadell |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Nov |
Espanol |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
29 Oct |
Mallorca |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
25 Oct |
Mirandes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Oct |
Sp Gijon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Oct |
Zaragoza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Girona and the red line for guest team, Malaga.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Girona |
24% |
35% |
26% |
16% |
|
Malaga |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Girona to score 1.21 goals and Malaga to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.91 goals in the game and the home team Girona to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Girona to score 1.33 goals and Malaga to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Girona to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.32 |
|
1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
1.99 |
|
2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.08 |
|
3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |
|
4 |
7.46 |
Un 1.5 |
3.32 |
|
5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |
|
Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.08 |
|
NoG |
1.94 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.46 |
3.42 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.05 |
3.92 |
3.89 |
|
4+ goals |
2.21 |
3.23 |
4.19 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
3.70 |
3.97 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.46 |
3.42 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
7.10 |
3.31 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
2.64 |
4.26 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.21 |
3.23 |
4.19 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.73 |
3.70 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
2.56 |
4.32 |
|
No Goal |
1.86 |
5.93 |
3.39 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
5.84 |
3.18 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.93 |
3.30 |
Go to Top
Cartagena vs Mallorca at 25 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Cartagena and Mallorca for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 25 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Cartagena |
3.16 |
3.07 |
0.9 |
|
Draw |
2.97 |
3.56 |
-5.6 |
|
Mallorca |
2.50 |
2.54 |
-0.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.63 |
2.26 |
6.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.47 |
1.79 |
-12.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Cartagena, Over 2.5 (0.9 %, 6.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Cartagena in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cartagena in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance at home.
Cartagena, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Mirandes |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Nov |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Nov |
Logrones |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Albacete |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Girona |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Las Palmas |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
21 Oct |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Mallorca in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mallorca in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Mallorca’s performance as a guest.
Mallorca, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 3 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Mallorca was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Nov |
Sp Gijon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
14 Nov |
Girona |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
08 Nov |
Ponferradina |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
01 Nov |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Oct |
Malaga |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Oct |
Alcorcon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
22 Oct |
Albacete |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
18 Oct |
Mirandes |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cartagena and the red line for guest team, Mallorca.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Cartagena |
28% |
41% |
22% |
8% |
|
Mallorca |
29% |
31% |
28% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cartagena to score 0.92 goals and Mallorca to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.11 goals and Mallorca to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.20 |
0-1 |
3.48 |
|
1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
1.95 |
|
2 |
3.69 |
4+ |
5.00 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |
|
5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
|
6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |
|
Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.00 |
|
NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.50 |