2020 11 27 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen at 27 November 2020
Union Berlin vs Ein Frankfurt at 28 November 2020
Stuttgart vs Bayern Munich at 28 November 2020
RB Leipzig vs Bielefeld at 28 November 2020
<a href=‘#M’gladbach’> M’gladbach vs Schalke 04 at 28 November 2020
Dortmund vs FC Koln at 28 November 2020
Augsburg vs Freiburg at 28 November 2020
Mainz vs Hoffenheim at 29 November 2020
Leverkusen vs Hertha at 29 November 2020


Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen at 27 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 27 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wolfsburg

1.82

2.34

-12.2

Draw

3.74

3.75

-0.1

Werder Bremen

4.38

3.29

7.6

Over 2.5

1.76

1.85

-2.8

Under 2.5

2.11

2.18

-1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Werder Bremen (7.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wolfsburg in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolfsburg in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolfsburg’s performance at home.
Wolfsburg, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolfsburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Schalke 04

A

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Hoffenheim

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Hertha

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Oct

Bielefeld

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

M’gladbach

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Augsburg

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Sep

Freiburg

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Sep

Leverkusen

H

0

0

D

U

N


Werder Bremen in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Werder Bremen in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance as a guest.
Werder Bremen, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Bayern Munich

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

FC Koln

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Oct

Hoffenheim

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Freiburg

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Oct

Bielefeld

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Sep

Schalke 04

A

3

1

W

O

G

19 Sep

Hertha

H

1

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wolfsburg and the red line for guest team, Werder Bremen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wolfsburg

20%

32%

29%

18%

Werder Bremen

25%

41%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolfsburg to score 1.78 goals and Werder Bremen to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and the home team Wolfsburg to win by 0.83 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolfsburg to score 1.46 goals and Werder Bremen to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

20.00

0-1

4.69

1

6.13

2-3

1.99

2

4.08

4+

3.53

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.27

4

5.56

Un 1.5

4.69

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.85

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.18

Gg

1.67

Ov 3.5

3.53

NoG

2.51

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.70

4.26

2.54

2-3 goals

2.14

3.81

3.70

4+ goals

2.48

3.33

3.37

Ov 1.5

2.25

3.62

3.57

Un 1.5

2.70

4.26

2.54

Ov 2.5

1.95

6.36

3.04

Un 2.5

3.05

2.52

3.63

Ov 3.5

2.48

3.33

3.37

Un 3.5

2.28

3.93

3.25

Goal-Goal

2.58

2.76

4.00

No Goal

2.05

7.98

2.59

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

5.51

3.12

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

7.98

2.59


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Union Berlin vs Ein Frankfurt at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Union Berlin and Ein Frankfurt for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Union Berlin

2.52

1.52

26.1

Draw

3.51

4.93

-8.2

Ein Frankfurt

2.75

7.09

-22.3

Over 2.5

1.65

1.58

2.7

Under 2.5

2.28

2.73

-7.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Union Berlin, Over 2.5 (26.1 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Union Berlin in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Union Berlin in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance at home.
Union Berlin, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

FC Koln

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Bielefeld

H

5

0

W

O

N

02 Nov

Hoffenheim

A

3

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Freiburg

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Schalke 04

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Oct

Mainz

H

4

0

W

O

N

26 Sep

M’gladbach

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Sep

Augsburg

H

1

3

L

O

G


Ein Frankfurt in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ein Frankfurt in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance as a guest.
Ein Frankfurt, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

RB Leipzig

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Stuttgart

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Werder Bremen

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Bayern Munich

A

0

5

L

O

N

18 Oct

FC Koln

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Oct

Hoffenheim

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Sep

Hertha

A

3

1

W

O

G

19 Sep

Bielefeld

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Union Berlin and the red line for guest team, Ein Frankfurt.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Union Berlin

12%

25%

18%

46%

Ein Frankfurt

36%

42%

16%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.49 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.89 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.98 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.91 goals in the game and the home team Union Berlin to win by 1.05 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

24.39

0-1

5.62

1

7.30

2-3

2.13

2

5.38

4+

2.87

3

3.52

Ov 1.5

1.22

4

4.22

Un 1.5

5.62

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

1.58

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

2.75

Gg

1.76

Ov 3.5

2.87

NoG

2.34

Un 3.5

1.54

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.02

4.34

3.63

2-3 goals

1.56

4.48

7.34

4+ goals

1.31

6.12

13.42

Ov 1.5

1.44

5.06

9.10

Un 1.5

2.02

4.34

3.63

Ov 2.5

1.26

11.11

8.79

Un 2.5

2.41

2.49

5.43

Ov 3.5

1.31

6.12

13.42

Un 3.5

1.67

4.44

5.73

Goal-Goal

1.66

3.51

8.75

No Goal

1.37

10.44

5.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.36

8.14

7.14

NG+Un 2.5

1.72

10.44

3.87


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Stuttgart vs Bayern Munich at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Stuttgart and Bayern Munich for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stuttgart

8.82

2.30

32.1

Draw

6.30

4.05

8.8

Bayern Munich

1.30

3.15

-45.2

Over 2.5

1.25

1.72

-21.9

Under 2.5

3.81

2.38

15.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stuttgart, Draw, Under 2.5 (32.1 %, 8.8 %, 15.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stuttgart in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stuttgart in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance at home.
Stuttgart, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Hoffenheim

A

3

3

D

O

G

07 Nov

Ein Frankfurt

H

2

2

D

O

G

30 Oct

Schalke 04

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Oct

FC Koln

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Hertha

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Leverkusen

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Sep

Mainz

A

4

1

W

O

G

19 Sep

Freiburg

H

2

3

L

O

G


Bayern Munich in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bayern Munich in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bayern Munich’s performance as a guest.
Bayern Munich, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Bayern Munich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Werder Bremen

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Dortmund

A

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

FC Koln

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Ein Frankfurt

H

5

0

W

O

N

17 Oct

Bielefeld

A

4

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Hertha

H

4

3

W

O

G

27 Sep

Hoffenheim

A

1

4

L

O

G

18 Sep

Schalke 04

H

8

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stuttgart and the red line for guest team, Bayern Munich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stuttgart

26%

34%

2%

37%

Bayern Munich

36%

23%

23%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 0.72 goals and Bayern Munich to score 3.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.91 goals in the game and the guest team Bayern Munich to win by 2.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.5 goals and Bayern Munich to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.64

1

5.49

2-3

2.43

2

6.85

4+

3.16

3

3.76

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.64

5

11.24

Ov 2.5

1.72

6+

14.08

Un 2.5

2.38

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

3.16

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.46

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.24

2.96

4.66

2-3 goals

2.80

5.28

2.20

4+ goals

1.88

4.10

4.45

Ov 1.5

2.31

4.70

2.82

Un 1.5

2.24

2.96

4.66

Ov 2.5

1.90

7.56

2.92

Un 2.5

3.19

2.46

3.57

Ov 3.5

1.88

4.10

4.45

Un 3.5

2.54

4.02

2.79

Goal-Goal

2.75

3.08

3.21

No Goal

1.99

5.65

3.13

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.30

5.19

2.68

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

5.65

2.91


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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RB Leipzig vs Bielefeld at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between RB Leipzig and Bielefeld for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

RB Leipzig

1.22

1.31

-5.6

Draw

6.81

7.58

-1.5

Bielefeld

13.07

9.80

2.6

Over 2.5

1.46

1.45

0.5

Under 2.5

2.72

3.21

-5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bielefeld, Over 2.5 (2.6 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

RB Leipzig in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, RB Leipzig in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at RB Leipzig’s performance at home.
RB Leipzig, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 12 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of RB Leipzig was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Freiburg

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

M’gladbach

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Hertha

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Augsburg

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Schalke 04

H

4

0

W

O

N

26 Sep

Leverkusen

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Sep

Mainz

H

3

1

W

O

G


Bielefeld in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bielefeld in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance as a guest.
Bielefeld, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bielefeld was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Leverkusen

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Union Berlin

A

0

5

L

O

N

31 Oct

Dortmund

H

0

2

L

U

N

25 Oct

Wolfsburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Bayern Munich

H

1

4

L

O

G

03 Oct

Werder Bremen

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Sep

FC Koln

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Sep

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, RB Leipzig and the red line for guest team, Bielefeld.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

RB Leipzig

12%

8%

38%

42%

Bielefeld

33%

54%

10%

3%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) RB Leipzig to score 2.78 goals and Bielefeld to score 0.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.25 goals in the game and the home team RB Leipzig to win by 2.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) RB Leipzig to score 2.1 goals and Bielefeld to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.92 goals in the game and the home team RB Leipzig to win by 1.28 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

24.39

0-1

7.58

1

10.99

2-3

1.87

2

5.56

4+

3.00

3

2.81

Ov 1.5

1.15

4

3.73

Un 1.5

7.58

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

1.45

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

3.21

Gg

1.70

Ov 3.5

3.00

NoG

2.42

Un 3.5

1.50

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-</