# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Brentford vs QPR at 27 November 2020**** Watford vs Preston at 28 November 2020**** Blackburn vs Barnsley at 28 November 2020**** Cardiff vs Luton at 28 November 2020**** Birmingham vs Millwall at 28 November 2020**** Derby vs Wycombe at 28 November 2020**** Huddersfield vs Middlesbrough at 28 November 2020**** Norwich vs Coventry at 28 November 2020**** Reading vs Bristol City at 28 November 2020**** Rotherham vs Bournemouth at 28 November 2020**** Sheffield Weds vs Stoke at 28 November 2020**

<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’>** Nott’m Forest vs Swansea at 29 November 2020**

###
Brentford vs QPR at 27 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Brentford** and **QPR** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **27 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Brentford |
1.64 |
1.95 |
-9.7 |

Draw |
3.95 |
3.91 |
0.3 |

QPR |
5.33 |
4.33 |
4.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
2.01 |
-6.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.09 |
1.99 |
2.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, QPR, Under 2.5 (0.3 %, 4.3 %, 2.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Brentford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brentford** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 1 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance** at home**.

Brentford,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Middlesbrough |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Luton |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Oct |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Stoke |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Oct |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**QPR** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **QPR** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance** as a guest**.

QPR,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Rotherham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Watford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Nov |
Derby |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Cardiff |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Barnsley |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Oct |
Preston |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Brentford** and the red line for guest team, **QPR. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Brentford |
19% |
31% |
29% |
21% |

QPR |
35% |
38% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Brentford** to score **1.9 ** goals and **QPR** to score **0.81 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the home team **Brentford ** to win by **1.09** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Brentford** to score **1.52 ** goals and **QPR** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Brentford ** to win by **0.52** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
4.03 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.15 |

3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.15 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.28 |
3.76 |
3.40 |

2-3 goals |
1.79 |
4.26 |
4.82 |

4+ goals |
2.03 |
3.44 |
4.63 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.86 |
3.96 |
4.76 |

Un 1.5 |
2.28 |
3.76 |
3.40 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.64 |
7.10 |
4.01 |

Un 2.5 |
2.40 |
2.70 |
4.70 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.03 |
3.44 |
4.63 |

Un 3.5 |
1.93 |
4.08 |
4.24 |

Goal-Goal |
2.30 |
2.78 |
4.89 |

No Goal |
1.67 |
7.15 |
3.84 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
5.83 |
3.78 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
7.15 |
3.58 |

####
Go to Top

###
Watford vs Preston at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Watford** and **Preston** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Watford |
1.97 |
2.27 |
-6.7 |

Draw |
3.46 |
3.52 |
-0.5 |

Preston |
3.84 |
3.64 |
1.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.18 |
-2.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.85 |
-2.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Preston (1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** at home**.

Watford,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

25 Nov |
Bristol City |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
QPR |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Coventry |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Nov |
Stoke |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Barnsley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Wycombe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Oct |
Blackburn |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Preston** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Preston** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance** as a guest**.

Preston,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Blackburn |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Nov |
Reading |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Birmingham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Oct |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Huddersfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Oct |
QPR |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Watford** and the red line for guest team, **Preston. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Watford |
21% |
37% |
26% |
16% |

Preston |
30% |
43% |
17% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Preston** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.56** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Preston** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
3.77 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.64 |
4+ |
4.65 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.77 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.81 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.65 |

NoG |
2.24 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.39 |
4.21 |
2.91 |

2-3 goals |
2.21 |
3.22 |
4.22 |

4+ goals |
2.29 |
3.58 |
3.52 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.23 |
3.32 |
3.99 |

Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
4.21 |
2.91 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
7.65 |
3.12 |

Un 2.5 |
2.87 |
2.41 |
4.22 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.29 |
3.58 |
3.52 |

Un 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.50 |
3.66 |

Goal-Goal |
2.68 |
2.50 |
4.39 |

No Goal |
1.91 |
7.08 |
2.99 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.53 |
3.11 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
7.08 |
2.96 |

####
Go to Top

###
Blackburn vs Barnsley at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Blackburn** and **Barnsley** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Blackburn |
1.96 |
2.02 |
-1.5 |

Draw |
3.52 |
3.83 |
-2.3 |

Barnsley |
3.85 |
4.08 |
-1.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.04 |
-2.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.96 |
-2.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Blackburn** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackburn** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance** at home**.

Blackburn,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Preston |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Luton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
QPR |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Middlesbrough |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Reading |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Coventry |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Oct |
Watford |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Barnsley** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnsley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Barnsley** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnsley scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance** as a guest**.

Barnsley,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnsley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Brentford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Derby |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Cardiff |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Watford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
QPR |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Oct |
Stoke |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Blackburn** and the red line for guest team, **Barnsley. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Blackburn |
19% |
34% |
28% |
20% |

Barnsley |
35% |
36% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Blackburn** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Barnsley** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Blackburn ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Blackburn** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Barnsley** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Blackburn ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.24 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.16 |
3.75 |
3.70 |

2-3 goals |
1.92 |
4.20 |
4.16 |

4+ goals |
2.15 |
3.28 |
4.37 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.98 |
3.85 |
4.23 |

Un 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.75 |
3.70 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
6.78 |
3.54 |

Un 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.70 |
4.78 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.15 |
3.28 |
4.37 |

Un 3.5 |
1.99 |
4.04 |
3.99 |

Goal-Goal |
2.50 |
2.71 |
4.32 |

No Goal |
1.68 |
7.00 |
3.84 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
5.58 |
3.32 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.81 |
7.00 |
3.64 |

####
Go to Top

###
Cardiff vs Luton at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cardiff** and **Luton** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cardiff |
1.78 |
2.14 |
-9.5 |

Draw |
3.59 |
3.38 |
1.7 |

Luton |
4.78 |
4.24 |
2.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.34 |
-5.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.75 |
1.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Luton, Under 2.5 (1.7 %, 2.7 %, 1.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cardiff** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cardiff** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance** at home**.

Cardiff,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

25 Nov |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Nov |
Bristol City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Barnsley |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
QPR |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Oct |
Derby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Oct |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Luton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Luton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance** as a guest**.

Luton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Birmingham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Huddersfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Nov |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Brentford |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Oct |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Millwall |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cardiff** and the red line for guest team, **Luton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cardiff |
21% |
42% |
16% |
22% |

Luton |
35% |
44% |
11% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cardiff** to score **1.6 ** goals and **Luton** to score **0.8 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Cardiff ** to win by **0.8** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cardiff** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Luton** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the home team **Cardiff ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.22 |

1 |
4.20 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
4.67 |

3 |
4.72 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.22 |

5 |
25.64 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.35 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.67 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.14 |
4.26 |
3.34 |