2020 11 27 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Brentford vs QPR at 27 November 2020
Watford vs Preston at 28 November 2020
Blackburn vs Barnsley at 28 November 2020
Cardiff vs Luton at 28 November 2020
Birmingham vs Millwall at 28 November 2020
Derby vs Wycombe at 28 November 2020
Huddersfield vs Middlesbrough at 28 November 2020
Norwich vs Coventry at 28 November 2020
Reading vs Bristol City at 28 November 2020
Rotherham vs Bournemouth at 28 November 2020
Sheffield Weds vs Stoke at 28 November 2020
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Swansea at 29 November 2020


Brentford vs QPR at 27 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Brentford and QPR for Championship (England), which will take place on 27 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brentford

1.64

1.95

-9.7

Draw

3.95

3.91

0.3

QPR

5.33

4.33

4.3

Over 2.5

1.77

2.01

-6.7

Under 2.5

2.09

1.99

2.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, QPR, Under 2.5 (0.3 %, 4.3 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brentford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 1 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance at home.
Brentford, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Barnsley

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Wycombe

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Middlesbrough

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Nov

Swansea

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Luton

A

3

0

W

O

N

27 Oct

Norwich

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Stoke

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Oct

Sheffield Weds

A

2

1

W

O

G


QPR in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, QPR in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance as a guest.
QPR, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Rotherham

H

3

2

W

O

G

21 Nov

Watford

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Blackburn

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Nov

Derby

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Cardiff

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Oct

Barnsley

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Oct

Birmingham

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Oct

Preston

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brentford and the red line for guest team, QPR.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brentford

19%

31%

29%

21%

QPR

35%

38%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.9 goals and QPR to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the home team Brentford to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.52 goals and QPR to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Brentford to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

4.03

1

5.49

2-3

1.96

2

3.92

4+

4.15

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.25

Un 1.5

4.03

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.15

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.28

3.76

3.40

2-3 goals

1.79

4.26

4.82

4+ goals

2.03

3.44

4.63

Ov 1.5

1.86

3.96

4.76

Un 1.5

2.28

3.76

3.40

Ov 2.5

1.64

7.10

4.01

Un 2.5

2.40

2.70

4.70

Ov 3.5

2.03

3.44

4.63

Un 3.5

1.93

4.08

4.24

Goal-Goal

2.30

2.78

4.89

No Goal

1.67

7.15

3.84

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.77

5.83

3.78

NG+Un 2.5

1.82

7.15

3.58


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Watford vs Preston at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Watford and Preston for Championship (England), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Watford

1.97

2.27

-6.7

Draw

3.46

3.52

-0.5

Preston

3.84

3.64

1.4

Over 2.5

2.08

2.18

-2.2

Under 2.5

1.76

1.85

-2.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Preston (1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Watford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance at home.
Watford, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Nov

Bristol City

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

QPR

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Coventry

H

3

2

W

O

G

04 Nov

Stoke

H

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Barnsley

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Oct

Wycombe

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Bournemouth

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Oct

Blackburn

H

3

1

W

O

G


Preston in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance as a guest.
Preston, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Blackburn

H

0

3

L

O

N

21 Nov

Sheffield Weds

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Rotherham

A

1

2

L

O

G

04 Nov

Reading

A

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Birmingham

H

1

2

L

O

G

28 Oct

Millwall

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Huddersfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Oct

QPR

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, Preston.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Watford

21%

37%

26%

16%

Preston

30%

43%

17%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 1.47 goals and Preston to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 1.36 goals and Preston to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.87

0-1

3.77

1

4.95

2-3

1.93

2

3.64

4+

4.65

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.77

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

4.65

NoG

2.24

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

4.21

2.91

2-3 goals

2.21

3.22

4.22

4+ goals

2.29

3.58

3.52

Ov 1.5

2.23

3.32

3.99

Un 1.5

2.39

4.21

2.91

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.65

3.12

Un 2.5

2.87

2.41

4.22

Ov 3.5

2.29

3.58

3.52

Un 3.5

2.27

3.50

3.66

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.50

4.39

No Goal

1.91

7.08

2.99

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.90

6.53

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

2.02

7.08

2.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Blackburn vs Barnsley at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackburn and Barnsley for Championship (England), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackburn

1.96

2.02

-1.5

Draw

3.52

3.83

-2.3

Barnsley

3.85

4.08

-1.5

Over 2.5

1.96

2.04

-2.0

Under 2.5

1.87

1.96

-2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Blackburn in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance at home.
Blackburn, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Preston

A

3

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Luton

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

QPR

H

3

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Middlesbrough

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Swansea

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Oct

Reading

H

2

4

L

O

G

24 Oct

Coventry

A

4

0

W

O

N

21 Oct

Watford

A

1

3

L

O

G


Barnsley in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Barnsley in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance as a guest.
Barnsley, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Brentford

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Nott’m Forest

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Derby

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Cardiff

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Oct

Watford

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

QPR

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Oct

Millwall

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Oct

Stoke

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Blackburn and the red line for guest team, Barnsley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackburn

19%

34%

28%

20%

Barnsley

35%

36%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.54 goals and Barnsley to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.48 goals and Barnsley to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.92

1

5.35

2-3

1.97

2

3.91

4+

4.24

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.92

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

4.24

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.16

3.75

3.70

2-3 goals

1.92

4.20

4.16

4+ goals

2.15

3.28

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.98

3.85

4.23

Un 1.5

2.16

3.75

3.70

Ov 2.5

1.76

6.78

3.54

Un 2.5

2.38

2.70

4.78

Ov 3.5

2.15

3.28

4.37

Un 3.5

1.99

4.04

3.99

Goal-Goal

2.50

2.71

4.32

No Goal

1.68

7.00

3.84

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

5.58

3.32

NG+Un 2.5

1.81

7.00

3.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cardiff vs Luton at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Cardiff and Luton for Championship (England), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cardiff

1.78

2.14

-9.5

Draw

3.59

3.38

1.7

Luton

4.78

4.24

2.7

Over 2.5

2.07

2.34

-5.6

Under 2.5

1.79

1.75

1.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Luton, Under 2.5 (1.7 %, 2.7 %, 1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cardiff in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cardiff in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance at home.
Cardiff, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Nov

Coventry

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Millwall

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

Bristol City

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Barnsley

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

QPR

A

2

3

L

O

G

28 Oct

Derby

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Middlesbrough

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Oct

Bournemouth

H

1

1

D

U

G


Luton in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Luton in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance as a guest.
Luton, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Birmingham

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Blackburn

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Huddersfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Nov

Rotherham

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Brentford

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Oct

Nott’m Forest

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Sheffield Weds

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Millwall

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cardiff and the red line for guest team, Luton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cardiff

21%

42%

16%

22%

Luton

35%

44%

11%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.6 goals and Luton to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Cardiff to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.39 goals and Luton to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Cardiff to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.22

1

4.20

2-3

2.11

2

3.80

4+

4.67

3

4.72

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.22

5

25.64

Ov 2.5

2.35

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.74

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.14

4.26

3.34