2020 11 27 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Notts County vs Wealdstone at 27 November 2020
Altrincham vs Maidenhead at 28 November 2020
Bromley vs Wrexham at 28 November 2020
Sutton vs Halifax at 28 November 2020
Weymouth vs Chesterfield at 28 November 2020


Notts County vs Wealdstone at 27 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Notts County and Wealdstone for Conference (England), which will take place on 27 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Notts County

1.57

2.21

-18.4

Draw

4.08

3.88

1.3

Wealdstone

5.09

3.46

9.3

Over 2.5

1.70

2.00

-8.8

Under 2.5

2.09

2.00

2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Wealdstone, Under 2.5 (1.3 %, 9.3 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Notts County in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance at home.
Notts County, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Chesterfield

A

3

2

W

O

G

17 Nov

Halifax

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Aldershot

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Maidenhead

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Oct

Sutton

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Oct

Barnet

H

4

2

W

O

G

07 Oct

Altrincham

H

3

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Dover Athletic

A

0

1

L

U

N


Wealdstone in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance as a guest.
Wealdstone, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Sutton

H

3

3

D

O

G

17 Nov

Eastleigh

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Nov

Halifax

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Altrincham

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

King’s Lynn

A

3

2

W

O

G

20 Oct

Chesterfield

H

3

2

W

O

G

17 Oct

Wrexham

H

4

3

W

O

G

13 Oct

Stockport

H

2

5

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Notts County and the red line for guest team, Wealdstone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Notts County

26%

27%

25%

22%

Wealdstone

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.94 goals and Wealdstone to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the home team Notts County to win by 1.12 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.42 goals and Wealdstone to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Notts County to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.76

1

5.49

2-3

2.08

2

4.26

4+

3.92

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.76

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.02

3.17

2.83

2-3 goals

1.99

4.86

3.44

4+ goals

2.07

3.36

4.55

Ov 1.5

2.02

4.21

3.76

Un 1.5

3.02

3.17

2.83

Ov 2.5

1.76

6.59

3.55

Un 2.5

2.96

2.74

3.36

Ov 3.5

2.07

3.36

4.55

Un 3.5

2.26

4.08

3.19

Goal-Goal

2.35

2.87

4.44

No Goal

2.09

5.95

2.82

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

5.30

3.57

NG+Un 2.5

2.38

5.95

2.70


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Altrincham vs Maidenhead at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Altrincham and Maidenhead for Conference (England), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Altrincham

2.43

3.00

-7.8

Draw

3.28

3.64

-3.0

Maidenhead

2.70

2.56

2.0

Over 2.5

1.89

2.00

-2.9

Under 2.5

1.89

2.00

-2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Maidenhead (2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Altrincham in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance at home.
Altrincham, at home, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Bromley

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Boreham Wood

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Chesterfield

H

3

2

W

O

G

14 Nov

Aldershot

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Nov

Solihull

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Wealdstone

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Dover Athletic

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Hartlepool

A

1

1

D

U

G


Maidenhead in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance as a guest.
Maidenhead, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Bromley

H

2

2

D

O

G

17 Nov

Aldershot

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Nov

Chesterfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Solihull

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Dag and Red

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Notts County

A

3

2

W

O

G

12 Oct

Wrexham

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Oct

Hartlepool

H

0

4

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Altrincham and the red line for guest team, Maidenhead.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Altrincham

24%

42%

21%

12%

Maidenhead

25%

34%

25%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.32 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.22 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

4.05

1

5.38

2-3

2.00

2

3.94

4+

3.95

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.05

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.76

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.31

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.38

4.05

3.01

2-3 goals

3.21

3.55

2.46

4+ goals

3.47

3.42

2.39

Ov 1.5

3.29

3.51

2.43

Un 1.5

2.38

4.05

3.01

Ov 2.5

2.84

6.76

2.00

Un 2.5

3.19

2.48

3.53

Ov 3.5

3.47

3.42

2.39

Un 3.5

2.88

3.70

2.62

Goal-Goal

3.92

2.65

2.72

No Goal

2.30

7.08

2.36

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.95

5.78

2.05

NG+Un 2.5

2.29

7.08

2.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bromley vs Wrexham at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bromley and Wrexham for Conference (England), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bromley

2.65

2.60

0.7

Draw

3.27

3.69

-3.5

Wrexham

2.54

2.90

-4.9

Over 2.5

2.00

2.02

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.80

1.98

-5.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bromley (0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bromley in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance at home.
Bromley, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Altrincham

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Maidenhead

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Nov

Boreham Wood

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Barnet

A

3

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Eastleigh

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Oct

Weymouth

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Oct

Hartlepool

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Oct

Torquay

H

1

2

L

O

G


Wrexham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance as a guest.
Wrexham, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Sutton

H

4

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Aldershot

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Hartlepool

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Barnet

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Wealdstone

A

3

4

L

O

G

12 Oct

Maidenhead

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Oct

Yeovil

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Oct

Solihull

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bromley and the red line for guest team, Wrexham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bromley

25%

36%

23%

16%

Wrexham

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.2 goals and Wrexham to score 1.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.3 goals and Wrexham to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.89

1

5.35

2-3

2.04

2

4.05

4+

3.98

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.89

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.57

3.67

2.95

2-3 goals

2.57

3.96

2.79

4+ goals

2.73

3.30

3.02

Ov 1.5

2.62

3.71

2.86

Un 1.5

2.57

3.67

2.95

Ov 2.5

2.27

6.51

2.46

Un 2.5

3.05

2.60

3.48

Ov 3.5

2.73

3.30

3.02

Un 3.5

2.57

3.86

2.84

Goal-Goal

3.12

2.70

3.25

No Goal

2.19

6.57

2.56

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.40

5.46

2.50

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

6.57

2.62


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sutton vs Halifax at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sutton and Halifax for Conference (England), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sutton

1.74

1.93

-5.7

Draw

3.66

4.02

-2.4

Halifax

4.08

4.33

-1.4

Over 2.5

1.81

1.93

-3.4

Under 2.5

1.95

2.07

-3.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sutton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance at home.
Sutton, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Wrexham

A

0

4

L

O

N

21 Nov

Wealdstone

A

3

3

D

O

G

17 Nov

Dag and Red

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

King’s Lynn

H

5

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Yeovil

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Oct

Notts County

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Oct

Weymouth

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Oct

Aldershot

A

2

1

W

O

G


Halifax in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance as a guest.
Halifax, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Torquay

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Nov

Notts County

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Nov

Wealdstone

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Woking

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Oct

Yeovil

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Oct

Boreham Wood

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Oct

Stockport

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Dag and Red

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sutton and the red line for guest team, Halifax.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sutton

19%

30%

26%

25%

Halifax

35%

37%

19%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.7 goals and Halifax to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Sutton to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.56 goals and Halifax to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Sutton to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

4.10

1

5.68

2-3

2.02

2

4.20

4+

3.85

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.10

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.85

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.32

3.59

3.44

2-3 goals

1.80