# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Twente vs Waalwijk at 27 November 2020**** VVV Venlo vs Zwolle at 28 November 2020**** FC Emmen vs Ajax at 28 November 2020**** Den Haag vs Heerenveen at 28 November 2020**** Feyenoord vs Utrecht at 29 November 2020**** Groningen vs Willem II at 29 November 2020**** Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar at 29 November 2020**** PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam at 29 November 2020**** Vitesse vs For Sittard at 29 November 2020**

###
Twente vs Waalwijk at 27 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Twente** and **Waalwijk** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **27 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Twente |
1.40 |
1.45 |
-2.5 |

Draw |
4.82 |
5.32 |
-1.9 |

Waalwijk |
7.08 |
8.13 |
-1.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.49 |
1.69 |
-7.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.58 |
2.44 |
2.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Twente** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Twente** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance** at home**.

Twente,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 11 points, 73.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Nov |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Den Haag |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Zwolle |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Oct |
FC Emmen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Sep |
Groningen |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Sep |
Feyenoord |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** as a guest**.

Waalwijk,** as a guest**, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Nov |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Oct |
Zwolle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Heracles |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Sep |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Twente** and the red line for guest team, **Waalwijk. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Twente |
15% |
6% |
46% |
33% |

Waalwijk |
49% |
27% |
16% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Twente** to score **2.43 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **0.73 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.16** goals in the game and the home team **Twente ** to win by **1.7** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Twente** to score **1.98 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.8** goals in the game and the home team **Twente ** to win by **1.16** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
6.99 |

1 |
14.29 |
2-3 |
1.74 |

2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
3.55 |

3 |
3.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.17 |

4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
6.99 |

5 |
11.36 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.44 |

Gg |
2.30 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.55 |

NoG |
1.77 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.77 |
1.96 |
3.58 |

2-3 goals |
1.12 |
33.82 |
12.78 |

4+ goals |
1.94 |
2.85 |
7.42 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |
7.39 |
10.33 |

Un 1.5 |
4.77 |
1.96 |
3.58 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.36 |
5.97 |
10.02 |

Un 2.5 |
1.60 |
4.54 |
6.39 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.94 |
2.85 |
7.42 |

Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
7.98 |
8.45 |

Goal-Goal |
1.61 |
3.74 |
9.04 |

No Goal |
1.35 |
7.75 |
7.55 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
4.21 |
8.69 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.54 |
7.75 |
6.13 |

####
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###
VVV Venlo vs Zwolle at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **VVV Venlo** and **Zwolle** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

VVV Venlo |
2.90 |
2.62 |
3.7 |

Draw |
3.40 |
3.27 |
1.2 |

Zwolle |
2.38 |
3.21 |
-10.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.93 |
-8.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.08 |
2.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **VVV Venlo, Draw, Under 2.5 (3.7 %, 1.2 %, 2.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**VVV Venlo** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **VVV Venlo** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance** at home**.

VVV Venlo,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Nov |
Willem II |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Heracles |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
13 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Oct |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Sep |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** as a guest**.

Zwolle,** as a guest**, had no wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Nov |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Nov |
For Sittard |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Twente |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Willem II |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Oct |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

26 Sep |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Sep |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **VVV Venlo** and the red line for guest team, **Zwolle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

VVV Venlo |
19% |
42% |
19% |
20% |

Zwolle |
18% |
50% |
19% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **VVV Venlo** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **1.52 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.83** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.21** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **VVV Venlo** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
30.30 |
0-1 |
4.98 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.57 |
4+ |
3.56 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.25 |

4 |
5.18 |
Un 1.5 |
4.98 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
1.49 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.56 |

NoG |
3.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.75 |
6.09 |
2.12 |

2-3 goals |
3.08 |
2.47 |
3.70 |

4+ goals |
1.98 |
4.46 |
3.70 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.58 |
2.93 |
3.70 |

Un 1.5 |
2.75 |
6.09 |
2.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
8.24 |
2.88 |

Un 2.5 |
4.50 |
1.98 |
3.67 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.98 |
4.46 |
3.70 |

Un 3.5 |
2.98 |
2.96 |
3.06 |

Goal-Goal |
2.79 |
2.45 |
4.27 |

No Goal |
2.31 |
10.00 |
2.14 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
7.30 |
2.93 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
10.00 |
2.07 |

####
Go to Top

###
FC Emmen vs Ajax at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **FC Emmen** and **Ajax** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

FC Emmen |
12.46 |
1.51 |
58.2 |

Draw |
7.13 |
5.95 |
2.8 |

Ajax |
1.19 |
5.88 |
-67.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.32 |
0.98 |
26.3 |

Under 2.5 |
3.33 |
-58.82 |
-31.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **FC Emmen, Draw, Over 2.5 (58.2 %, 2.8 %, 26.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**FC Emmen** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Emmen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance** at home**.

FC Emmen,** at home**, had no wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
For Sittard |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Twente |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Sep |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Sep |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Ajax** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Ajax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ajax** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Ajax** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ajax’s performance** as a guest**.

Ajax,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Ajax scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Ajax was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Nov |
Heracles |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Nov |
Utrecht |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
For Sittard |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
VVV Venlo |
A |
13 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
Heerenveen |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Sep |
Vitesse |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Sep |
Waalwijk |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **FC Emmen** and the red line for guest team, **Ajax. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

FC Emmen |
22% |
-67% |
125% |
20% |

Ajax |
11% |
36% |
27% |
26% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **0.52 ** goals and **Ajax** to score **3.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.65** goals in the game and the guest team **Ajax ** to win by **2.61** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **2.42 ** goals and **Ajax** to score **1.68 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **4.1** goals in the game and the home team **FC Emmen ** to win by **0.74** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
41.67 |
0-1 |
29.41 |

1 |
100.00 |
2-3 |
3.31 |

2 |
-20.00 |
4+ |
1.51 |

3 |
2.84 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.04 |

4 |
4.29 |
Un 1.5 |
29.41 |

5 |
2.64 |
Ov 2.5 |
0.98 |

6+ |
19.23 |
Un 2.5 |
-62.50 |

Gg |
1.44 |
Ov 3.5 |
1.51 |

NoG |
3.27 |
Un 3.5 |
2.98 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
-0.48 |
1.42 |
0.42 |

2-3 goals |
0.50 |
-1.24 |
-4.87 |

4+ goals |
5.23 |
1.72 |
4.43 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
6.71 |
10.98 |

Un 1.5 |
-0.48 |
1.42 |
0.42 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
2.63 |
36.29 |

Un 2.5 |
-0.26 |
0.07 |
-0.11 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.23 |
1.72 |
4.43 |

Un 3.5 |
0.63 |
-1.53 |
17.68 |

Goal-Goal |
1.20 |
4.82 |
-23.13 |

No Goal |
3.69 |
12.75 |
1.54 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
2.42 |
-31.23 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.66 |
12.75 |
1.61 |

####
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###
Den Haag vs Heerenveen at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Den Haag** and **Heerenveen** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Den Haag |
4.35 |
2.99 |
10.5 |

Draw |
4.11 |
3.80 |
2.0 |

Heerenveen |
1.70 |
2.49 |
-18.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.60 |
-2.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.44 |
2.66 |
-3.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Den Haag, Draw (10.5 %, 2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Den Haag** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Den Haag** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance** at home**.

Den Haag,** at home**, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Nov |
Twente |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Vitesse |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
VVV Venlo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Sep |
Feyenoord |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Sep |
Groningen |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Heerenveen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Heerenveen** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heerenveen’s performance** as a guest**.

Heerenveen,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Heerenveen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Nov |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
FC Emmen |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
Ajax |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Oct |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Sep |
VVV Venlo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Sep |
For Sittard |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Den Haag** and the red line for guest team, **Heerenveen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Den Haag |
23% |
31% |
26% |
20% |

Heerenveen |
13% |
39% |
27% |
21% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Den Haag** to score **1.01 ** goals and **Heerenveen** to score **2.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.05** goals in the game and the guest team **Heerenveen ** to win by **1.03** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Den Haag** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Heerenveen** to score **1.56 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
33.33 |
0-1 |
6.29 |

1 |
7.75 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.63 |
4+ |
2.73 |

3 |
3.86 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.19 |

4 |
4.67 |
Un 1.5 |
6.29 |

5 |
9.17 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.60 |

6+ |
23.26 |
Un 2.5 |
2.67 |

Gg |
1.49 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.73 |

NoG |
3.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.58 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |