Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Twente vs Waalwijk at 27 November 2020
VVV Venlo vs Zwolle at 28 November 2020
FC Emmen vs Ajax at 28 November 2020
Den Haag vs Heerenveen at 28 November 2020
Feyenoord vs Utrecht at 29 November 2020
Groningen vs Willem II at 29 November 2020
Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar at 29 November 2020
PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam at 29 November 2020
Vitesse vs For Sittard at 29 November 2020
Twente vs Waalwijk at 27 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Twente and Waalwijk for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 27 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Twente |
1.40 |
1.45 |
-2.5 |
|
Draw |
4.82 |
5.32 |
-1.9 |
|
Waalwijk |
7.08 |
8.13 |
-1.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.49 |
1.69 |
-7.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.58 |
2.44 |
2.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Twente in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Twente in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance at home.
Twente, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 11 points, 73.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Twente was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Nov |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
07 Nov |
Den Haag |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Zwolle |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
03 Oct |
FC Emmen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
25 Sep |
Groningen |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Sep |
Feyenoord |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Waalwijk in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance as a guest.
Waalwijk, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Nov |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
07 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
25 Oct |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
21 Oct |
Zwolle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Heracles |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Sep |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Sep |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Twente and the red line for guest team, Waalwijk.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Twente |
15% |
6% |
46% |
33% |
|
Waalwijk |
49% |
27% |
16% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Twente to score 2.43 goals and Waalwijk to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.16 goals in the game and the home team Twente to win by 1.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Twente to score 1.98 goals and Waalwijk to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.8 goals in the game and the home team Twente to win by 1.16 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
6.99 |
|
1 |
14.29 |
2-3 |
1.74 |
|
2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
3.55 |
|
3 |
3.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.17 |
|
4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
6.99 |
|
5 |
11.36 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
|
6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
|
Gg |
2.30 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.55 |
|
NoG |
1.77 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
4.77 |
1.96 |
3.58 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.12 |
33.82 |
12.78 |
|
4+ goals |
1.94 |
2.85 |
7.42 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |
7.39 |
10.33 |
|
Un 1.5 |
4.77 |
1.96 |
3.58 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.36 |
5.97 |
10.02 |
|
Un 2.5 |
1.60 |
4.54 |
6.39 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.94 |
2.85 |
7.42 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
7.98 |
8.45 |
|
Goal-Goal |
1.61 |
3.74 |
9.04 |
|
No Goal |
1.35 |
7.75 |
7.55 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
4.21 |
8.69 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.54 |
7.75 |
6.13 |
Go to Top
VVV Venlo vs Zwolle at 28 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between VVV Venlo and Zwolle for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
VVV Venlo |
2.90 |
2.62 |
3.7 |
|
Draw |
3.40 |
3.27 |
1.2 |
|
Zwolle |
2.38 |
3.21 |
-10.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.93 |
-8.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.08 |
2.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at VVV Venlo, Draw, Under 2.5 (3.7 %, 1.2 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
VVV Venlo in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, VVV Venlo in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance at home.
VVV Venlo, at home, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Willem II |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Nov |
Heracles |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
13 |
L |
O |
N |
|
17 Oct |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Sep |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
18 Sep |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Zwolle in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance as a guest.
Zwolle, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Nov |
For Sittard |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Twente |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Willem II |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
21 Oct |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
18 Oct |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
26 Sep |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
19 Sep |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, VVV Venlo and the red line for guest team, Zwolle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
VVV Venlo |
19% |
42% |
19% |
20% |
|
Zwolle |
18% |
50% |
19% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) VVV Venlo to score 1.31 goals and Zwolle to score 1.52 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) VVV Venlo to score 1.41 goals and Zwolle to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
30.30 |
0-1 |
4.98 |
|
1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
1.93 |
|
2 |
3.57 |
4+ |
3.56 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.25 |
|
4 |
5.18 |
Un 1.5 |
4.98 |
|
5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
|
6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
|
Gg |
1.49 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.56 |
|
NoG |
3.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.75 |
6.09 |
2.12 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.08 |
2.47 |
3.70 |
|
4+ goals |
1.98 |
4.46 |
3.70 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.58 |
2.93 |
3.70 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.75 |
6.09 |
2.12 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
8.24 |
2.88 |
|
Un 2.5 |
4.50 |
1.98 |
3.67 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.98 |
4.46 |
3.70 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.98 |
2.96 |
3.06 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.79 |
2.45 |
4.27 |
|
No Goal |
2.31 |
10.00 |
2.14 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
7.30 |
2.93 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
10.00 |
2.07 |
Go to Top
FC Emmen vs Ajax at 28 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between FC Emmen and Ajax for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
FC Emmen |
12.46 |
1.51 |
58.2 |
|
Draw |
7.13 |
5.95 |
2.8 |
|
Ajax |
1.19 |
5.88 |
-67.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.32 |
0.98 |
26.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
3.33 |
-58.82 |
-31.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at FC Emmen, Draw, Over 2.5 (58.2 %, 2.8 %, 26.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
FC Emmen in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Emmen in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance at home.
FC Emmen, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Nov |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Nov |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
18 Oct |
For Sittard |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Twente |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Sep |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Sep |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Ajax in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ajax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ajax in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ajax scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Ajax’s performance as a guest.
Ajax, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ajax scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Ajax was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Nov |
Heracles |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
08 Nov |
Utrecht |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
31 Oct |
For Sittard |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
VVV Venlo |
A |
13 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
18 Oct |
Heerenveen |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
04 Oct |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Sep |
Vitesse |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Sep |
Waalwijk |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, FC Emmen and the red line for guest team, Ajax.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
FC Emmen |
22% |
-67% |
125% |
20% |
|
Ajax |
11% |
36% |
27% |
26% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 0.52 goals and Ajax to score 3.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.65 goals in the game and the guest team Ajax to win by 2.61 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 2.42 goals and Ajax to score 1.68 goals.
So, we expect a total of 4.1 goals in the game and the home team FC Emmen to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
41.67 |
0-1 |
29.41 |
|
1 |
100.00 |
2-3 |
3.31 |
|
2 |
-20.00 |
4+ |
1.51 |
|
3 |
2.84 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.04 |
|
4 |
4.29 |
Un 1.5 |
29.41 |
|
5 |
2.64 |
Ov 2.5 |
0.98 |
|
6+ |
19.23 |
Un 2.5 |
-62.50 |
|
Gg |
1.44 |
Ov 3.5 |
1.51 |
|
NoG |
3.27 |
Un 3.5 |
2.98 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
-0.48 |
1.42 |
0.42 |
|
2-3 goals |
0.50 |
-1.24 |
-4.87 |
|
4+ goals |
5.23 |
1.72 |
4.43 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
6.71 |
10.98 |
|
Un 1.5 |
-0.48 |
1.42 |
0.42 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
2.63 |
36.29 |
|
Un 2.5 |
-0.26 |
0.07 |
-0.11 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
5.23 |
1.72 |
4.43 |
|
Un 3.5 |
0.63 |
-1.53 |
17.68 |
|
Goal-Goal |
1.20 |
4.82 |
-23.13 |
|
No Goal |
3.69 |
12.75 |
1.54 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
2.42 |
-31.23 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.66 |
12.75 |
1.61 |
Go to Top
Den Haag vs Heerenveen at 28 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Den Haag and Heerenveen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Den Haag |
4.35 |
2.99 |
10.5 |
|
Draw |
4.11 |
3.80 |
2.0 |
|
Heerenveen |
1.70 |
2.49 |
-18.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.60 |
-2.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.44 |
2.66 |
-3.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Den Haag, Draw (10.5 %, 2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Den Haag in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Den Haag in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance at home.
Den Haag, at home, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |
|
07 Nov |
Twente |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Nov |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
25 Oct |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
18 Oct |
Vitesse |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
VVV Venlo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Sep |
Feyenoord |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Sep |
Groningen |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Heerenveen in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heerenveen in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Heerenveen’s performance as a guest.
Heerenveen, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Heerenveen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Nov |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
08 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
01 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
FC Emmen |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
18 Oct |
Ajax |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Oct |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Sep |
VVV Venlo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Sep |
For Sittard |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Den Haag and the red line for guest team, Heerenveen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Den Haag |
23% |
31% |
26% |
20% |
|
Heerenveen |
13% |
39% |
27% |
21% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Den Haag to score 1.01 goals and Heerenveen to score 2.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.05 goals in the game and the guest team Heerenveen to win by 1.03 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Den Haag to score 1.44 goals and Heerenveen to score 1.56 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.12 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
33.33 |
0-1 |
6.29 |
|
1 |
7.75 |
2-3 |
2.11 |
|
2 |
4.63 |
4+ |
2.73 |
|
3 |
3.86 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.19 |
|
4 |
4.67 |
Un 1.5 |
6.29 |
|
5 |
9.17 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.60 |
|
6+ |
23.26 |
Un 2.5 |
2.67 |
|
Gg |
1.49 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.73 |
|
NoG |
3.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.58 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |