2020 11 27 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Valladolid vs Levante at 27 November 2020
Elche vs Cadiz at 28 November 2020
Huesca vs Sevilla at 28 November 2020
Valencia vs Ath Madrid at 28 November 2020
Getafe vs Ath Bilbao at 29 November 2020
Real Madrid vs Alaves at 29 November 2020
Sociedad vs Villarreal at 29 November 2020
Barcelona vs Osasuna at 29 November 2020
Celta vs Granada at 29 November 2020
Betis vs Eibar at 30 November 2020


Valladolid vs Levante at 27 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Valladolid and Levante for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 27 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Valladolid

2.46

2.36

1.7

Draw

3.24

3.86

-5.0

Levante

3.04

3.14

-1.0

Over 2.5

2.21

1.97

5.5

Under 2.5

1.70

2.03

-9.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valladolid, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 5.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Valladolid in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance at home.
Valladolid, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Granada

A

3

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Ath Bilbao

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Villarreal

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Oct

Alaves

H

0

2

L

U

N

18 Oct

Huesca

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Eibar

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Sep

Real Madrid

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Sep

Celta

H

1

1

D

U

G


Levante in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance as a guest.
Levante, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Elche

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Alaves

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Granada

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Oct

Celta

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Ath Bilbao

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Oct

Real Madrid

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Oct

Sevilla

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Sep

Osasuna

A

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valladolid and the red line for guest team, Levante.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Valladolid

25%

30%

27%

18%

Levante

33%

30%

22%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.23 goals and Levante to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.38 goals and Levante to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.89

1

5.71

2-3

2.08

2

4.24

4+

3.80

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.89

5

12.66

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

3.80

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.57

3.13

3.43

2-3 goals

2.08

5.27

3.04

4+ goals

2.86

3.06

3.09

Ov 1.5

2.30

4.20

3.06

Un 1.5

2.57

3.13

3.43

Ov 2.5

2.18

5.90

2.70

Un 2.5

2.59

2.85

3.79

Ov 3.5

2.86

3.06

3.09

Un 3.5

2.23

4.26

3.16

Goal-Goal

2.89

2.84

3.32

No Goal

2.00

6.07

2.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.36

4.78

2.72

NG+Un 2.5

2.12

6.07

3.09


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Elche vs Cadiz at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Elche and Cadiz for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Elche

3.36

2.18

16.1

Draw

3.04

3.72

-6.0

Cadiz

2.44

3.66

-13.7

Over 2.5

2.76

1.90

16.4

Under 2.5

1.45

2.11

-21.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Elche, Over 2.5 (16.1 %, 16.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Elche in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance at home.
Elche, at home, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Levante

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

Celta

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Betis

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Oct

Valencia

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

Alaves

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Huesca

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Sep

Eibar

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Sep

Sociedad

H

0

3

L

O

N


Cadiz in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cadiz in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cadiz’s performance as a guest.
Cadiz, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 80.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Cadiz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Sociedad

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Ath Madrid

A

0

4

L

O

N

30 Oct

Eibar

A

2

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Villarreal

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Real Madrid

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Oct

Granada

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Oct

Ath Bilbao

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Sevilla

H

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Elche and the red line for guest team, Cadiz.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Elche

21%

32%

25%

23%

Cadiz

24%

48%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Elche to score 0.87 goals and Cadiz to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.96 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Elche to score 1.5 goals and Cadiz to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the home team Elche to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

20.00

0-1

4.42

1

5.68

2-3

2.00

2

4.02

4+

3.65

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.41

Un 1.5

4.42

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

1.90

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.11

Gg

1.67

Ov 3.5

3.65

NoG

2.50

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.97

4.52

2.26

2-3 goals

2.16

3.31

4.24

4+ goals

1.81

4.03

4.98

Ov 1.5

2.03

3.53

4.47

Un 1.5

2.97

4.52

2.26

Ov 2.5

1.63

7.72

3.92

Un 2.5

3.52

2.36

3.42

Ov 3.5

1.81

4.03

4.98

Un 3.5

2.36

3.61

3.33

Goal-Goal

2.24

2.74

5.31

No Goal

2.11

8.00

2.50

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.68

6.60

3.97

NG+Un 2.5

2.40

8.00

2.33


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Huesca vs Sevilla at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Huesca and Sevilla for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Huesca

4.00

2.43

16.2

Draw

3.26

3.77

-4.1

Sevilla

2.05

3.09

-16.4

Over 2.5

2.30

1.93

8.3

Under 2.5

1.63

2.07

-13.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Huesca, Over 2.5 (16.2 %, 8.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Huesca in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huesca in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance at home.
Huesca, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Nov

Osasuna

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Real Madrid

A

1

4

L

O

G

25 Oct

Sociedad

A

1

4

L

O

G

18 Oct

Valladolid

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Elche

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Sep

Ath Madrid

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Sep

Valencia

A

1

1

D

U

G


Sevilla in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance as a guest.
Sevilla, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Celta

H

4

2

W

O

G

07 Nov

Osasuna

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Ath Bilbao

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Eibar

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Granada

A

0

1

L

U

N

04 Oct

Barcelona

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Oct

Levante

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Cadiz

A

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Huesca and the red line for guest team, Sevilla.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Huesca

24%

31%

26%

18%

Sevilla

27%

38%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huesca to score 0.85 goals and Sevilla to score 1.36 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the guest team Sevilla to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.39 goals and Sevilla to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

4.12

1

5.65

2-3

2.04

2

4.17

4+

3.73

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.95

Un 1.5

4.12

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

3.73

NoG

2.23

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.86

3.68

2.64

2-3 goals

2.24

4.14

3.20

4+ goals

2.48

3.31

3.39

Ov 1.5

2.32

3.80

3.26

Un 1.5

2.86

3.68

2.64

Ov 2.5

2.02

6.38

2.87

Un 2.5

3.12

2.62

3.35

Ov 3.5

2.48

3.31

3.39

Un 3.5

2.42

3.98

2.99

Goal-Goal

2.67

2.77

3.77

No Goal

2.19

6.80

2.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

5.35

2.97

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

6.80

2.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Valencia vs Ath Madrid at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Ath Madrid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Valencia

4.84

2.99

12.8

Draw

3.70

3.75

-0.4

Ath Madrid

1.77

2.52

-16.8

Over 2.5

2.16

1.86

7.5

Under 2.5

1.72

2.16

-11.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valencia, Over 2.5 (12.8 %, 7.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Valencia in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valencia in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Valencia’s performance at home.
Valencia, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valencia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Alaves

A

2

2

D

O

G

08 Nov

Real Madrid

H

4

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Getafe

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Oct

Elche

A

1

2

L

O

G

18 Oct

Villarreal

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Betis

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Sep

Sociedad

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Sep

Huesca

H

1

1

D

U

G


Ath Madrid in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Madrid in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance as a guest.
Ath Madrid, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Barcelona

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Cadiz

H

4

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Osasuna

A

3

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Betis

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Celta

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Villarreal

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Sep

Huesca

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Sep

Granada

H

6

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valencia and the red line for guest team, Ath Madrid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Valencia

26%

34%

23%

16%

Ath Madrid

20%

38%

23%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valencia to score 0.76 goals and Ath Madrid to score 1.56 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the guest team Ath Madrid to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valencia to score 1.29 goals and Ath Madrid to score 1.4 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.52

0-1

4.48

1

5.92

2-3

2.04

2

4.17

4+

3.48

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.62

Un 1.5

4.48

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

2.16

Gg

1.71

Ov 3.5

3.48

NoG

2.42

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-