# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Fleetwood Town vs Sunderland at 27 November 2020**** Oxford vs Swindon at 28 November 2020**** Ipswich vs Charlton at 28 November 2020**

###
Fleetwood Town vs Sunderland at 27 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Fleetwood Town** and **Sunderland** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **27 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Fleetwood Town |
2.97 |
2.40 |
8.0 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.86 |
-5.4 |

Sunderland |
2.45 |
3.10 |
-8.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.20 |
1.92 |
6.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
2.08 |
-11.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Fleetwood Town, Over 2.5 (8 %, 6.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Fleetwood Town** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fleetwood Town** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance** at home**.

Fleetwood Town,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 76.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Nov |
Plymouth |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Oxford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Sunderland** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sunderland** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance** as a guest**.

Sunderland,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Nov |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Rochdale |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Fleetwood Town** and the red line for guest team, **Sunderland. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Fleetwood Town |
26% |
28% |
28% |
19% |

Sunderland |
28% |
37% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Fleetwood Town** to score **1.06 ** goals and **Sunderland** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.16** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Fleetwood Town** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Sunderland** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
4.07 |

1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
3.70 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.70 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.19 |
3.37 |
2.56 |

2-3 goals |
2.09 |
4.78 |
3.20 |

4+ goals |
2.48 |
3.18 |
3.55 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.21 |
4.05 |
3.32 |

Un 1.5 |
3.19 |
3.37 |
2.56 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.11 |
3.04 |

Un 2.5 |
3.12 |
2.76 |
3.16 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.48 |
3.18 |
3.55 |

Un 3.5 |
2.37 |
4.19 |
2.95 |

Goal-Goal |
2.53 |
2.85 |
3.93 |

No Goal |
2.26 |
6.41 |
2.49 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.06 |
3.19 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.46 |
6.41 |
2.49 |

####
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###
Oxford vs Swindon at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oxford** and **Swindon** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oxford |
1.90 |
2.65 |
-14.9 |

Draw |
3.71 |
3.56 |
1.1 |

Swindon |
3.83 |
2.92 |
8.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
2.16 |
-10.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.86 |
5.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Swindon, Under 2.5 (1.1 %, 8.1 %, 5.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oxford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oxford** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance** at home**.

Oxford,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Wigan |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Crewe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Rochdale |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Charlton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Swindon** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swindon** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance** as a guest**.

Swindon,** as a guest**, had no wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 6.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Nov |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Shrewsbury |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Hull |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oxford** and the red line for guest team, **Swindon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oxford |
26% |
37% |
23% |
14% |

Swindon |
28% |
37% |
25% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.69 ** goals and **Swindon** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the home team **Oxford ** to win by **0.68** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Swindon** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.66 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
4.57 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.66 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.62 |
3.74 |
2.84 |

2-3 goals |
2.73 |
3.74 |
2.73 |

4+ goals |
2.52 |
3.08 |
3.59 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.51 |
2.94 |

Un 1.5 |
2.62 |
3.74 |
2.84 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
6.49 |
2.55 |

Un 2.5 |
3.21 |
2.58 |
3.33 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.08 |
3.59 |

Un 3.5 |
2.69 |
3.74 |
2.77 |

Goal-Goal |
3.12 |
2.57 |
3.45 |

No Goal |
2.27 |
6.42 |
2.48 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
5.56 |
2.56 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.40 |
6.42 |
2.49 |

####
Go to Top

###
Ipswich vs Charlton at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ipswich** and **Charlton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ipswich |
2.48 |
2.21 |
4.9 |

Draw |
3.16 |
3.88 |
-5.9 |

Charlton |
2.95 |
3.45 |
-4.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.26 |
1.96 |
6.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
2.04 |
-11.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ipswich, Over 2.5 (4.9 %, 6.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ipswich** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ipswich** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance** at home**.

Ipswich,** at home**, had 6 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 85.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Hull |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Shrewsbury |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Gillingham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Lincoln |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Charlton** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Charlton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance** as a guest**.

Charlton,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Burton |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Portsmouth |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Oxford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Northampton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ipswich** and the red line for guest team, **Charlton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ipswich |
23% |
29% |
28% |
19% |

Charlton |
32% |
36% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ipswich** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Charlton** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ipswich** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Charlton** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.98 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.76 |
3.35 |
2.95 |

2-3 goals |
1.93 |
4.75 |
3.70 |

4+ goals |
2.42 |
3.26 |
3.58 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.07 |
4.10 |
3.66 |

Un 1.5 |
2.76 |
3.35 |
2.95 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.39 |
3.21 |

Un 2.5 |
2.71 |
2.75 |
3.74 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.26 |
3.58 |

Un 3.5 |
2.14 |
4.16 |
3.41 |

Goal-Goal |
2.49 |
2.85 |
4.05 |

No Goal |
1.97 |
6.39 |
2.98 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.24 |
3.25 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.39 |
2.95 |

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