2020 11 27 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Fleetwood Town vs Sunderland at 27 November 2020
Oxford vs Swindon at 28 November 2020
Ipswich vs Charlton at 28 November 2020


Fleetwood Town vs Sunderland at 27 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Fleetwood Town and Sunderland for League One (England), which will take place on 27 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fleetwood Town

2.97

2.40

8.0

Draw

3.19

3.86

-5.4

Sunderland

2.45

3.10

-8.6

Over 2.5

2.20

1.92

6.6

Under 2.5

1.68

2.08

-11.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Fleetwood Town, Over 2.5 (8 %, 6.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fleetwood Town in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fleetwood Town in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance at home.
Fleetwood Town, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 76.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Plymouth

H

5

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Bristol Rvs

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Charlton

A

2

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Oxford

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Shrewsbury

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Gillingham

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Accrington

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Lincoln

H

0

0

D

U

N


Sunderland in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance as a guest.
Sunderland, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Doncaster

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Nov

Ipswich

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Gillingham

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Rochdale

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Oct

Portsmouth

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Oct

Crewe

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Swindon

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fleetwood Town and the red line for guest team, Sunderland.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fleetwood Town

26%

28%

28%

19%

Sunderland

28%

37%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fleetwood Town to score 1.06 goals and Sunderland to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fleetwood Town to score 1.39 goals and Sunderland to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

4.07

1

5.78

2-3

2.07

2

4.27

4+

3.70

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.02

Un 1.5

4.07

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

3.70

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.19

3.37

2.56

2-3 goals

2.09

4.78

3.20

4+ goals

2.48

3.18

3.55

Ov 1.5

2.21

4.05

3.32

Un 1.5

3.19

3.37

2.56

Ov 2.5

1.97

6.11

3.04

Un 2.5

3.12

2.76

3.16

Ov 3.5

2.48

3.18

3.55

Un 3.5

2.37

4.19

2.95

Goal-Goal

2.53

2.85

3.93

No Goal

2.26

6.41

2.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.06

3.19

NG+Un 2.5

2.46

6.41

2.49


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Oxford vs Swindon at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Oxford and Swindon for League One (England), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oxford

1.90

2.65

-14.9

Draw

3.71

3.56

1.1

Swindon

3.83

2.92

8.1

Over 2.5

1.77

2.16

-10.2

Under 2.5

2.06

1.86

5.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Swindon, Under 2.5 (1.1 %, 8.1 %, 5.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oxford in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance at home.
Oxford, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Portsmouth

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Wigan

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Nov

Crewe

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Nov

Rochdale

H

3

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Fleetwood Town

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Oct

Charlton

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Oct

Milton Keynes Dons

H

3

2

W

O

G

17 Oct

Peterboro

A

0

2

L

U

N


Swindon in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance as a guest.
Swindon, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 6.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Lincoln

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Bristol Rvs

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Accrington

H

0

3

L

O

N

14 Nov

Shrewsbury

A

3

3

D

O

G

03 Nov

Plymouth

A

2

4

L

O

G

31 Oct

Hull

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Northampton

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Sunderland

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oxford and the red line for guest team, Swindon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oxford

26%

37%

23%

14%

Swindon

28%

37%

25%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.69 goals and Swindon to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Oxford to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.25 goals and Swindon to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.66

1

5.00

2-3

1.97

2

3.76

4+

4.57

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.66

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

3.74

2.84

2-3 goals

2.73

3.74

2.73

4+ goals

2.52

3.08

3.59

Ov 1.5

2.66

3.51

2.94

Un 1.5

2.62

3.74

2.84

Ov 2.5

2.21

6.49

2.55

Un 2.5

3.21

2.58

3.33

Ov 3.5

2.52

3.08

3.59

Un 3.5

2.69

3.74

2.77

Goal-Goal

3.12

2.57

3.45

No Goal

2.27

6.42

2.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.32

5.56

2.56

NG+Un 2.5

2.40

6.42

2.49


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Ipswich vs Charlton at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Ipswich and Charlton for League One (England), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ipswich

2.48

2.21

4.9

Draw

3.16

3.88

-5.9

Charlton

2.95

3.45

-4.9

Over 2.5

2.26

1.96

6.8

Under 2.5

1.65

2.04

-11.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ipswich, Over 2.5 (4.9 %, 6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ipswich in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ipswich in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance at home.
Ipswich, at home, had 6 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 85.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Hull

H

0

3

L

O

N

21 Nov

Shrewsbury

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Sunderland

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Crewe

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Gillingham

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Lincoln

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Oct

Doncaster

A

1

4

L

O

G

17 Oct

Accrington

H

2

0

W

U

N


Charlton in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Charlton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance as a guest.
Charlton, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Burton

A

2

4

L

O

G

21 Nov

Gillingham

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Fleetwood Town

H

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Portsmouth

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Oxford

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Northampton

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Blackpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Wigan

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ipswich and the red line for guest team, Charlton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ipswich

23%

29%

28%

19%

Charlton

32%

36%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.19 goals and Charlton to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.43 goals and Charlton to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.98

1

5.68

2-3

2.04

2

4.18

4+

3.83

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.98

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.76

3.35

2.95

2-3 goals

1.93

4.75

3.70

4+ goals

2.42

3.26

3.58

Ov 1.5

2.07

4.10

3.66

Un 1.5

2.76

3.35

2.95

Ov 2.5

1.88

6.39

3.21

Un 2.5

2.71

2.75

3.74

Ov 3.5

2.42

3.26

3.58

Un 3.5

2.14

4.16

3.41

Goal-Goal

2.49

2.85

4.05

No Goal

1.97

6.39

2.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.24

3.25

NG+Un 2.5

2.14

6.39

2.95


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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