2020 11 27 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bolton vs Southend at 28 November 2020
Port Vale vs Leyton Orient at 28 November 2020


Bolton vs Southend at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bolton and Southend for League Two (England), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bolton

1.62

2.15

-15.2

Draw

3.82

3.80

0.1

Southend

5.54

3.68

9.1

Over 2.5

2.12

2.01

2.6

Under 2.5

1.72

1.99

-7.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Southend, Over 2.5 (0.1 %, 9.1 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bolton in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance at home.
Bolton, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Scunthorpe

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Stevenage

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Nov

Salford

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Leyton Orient

A

0

4

L

O

N

27 Oct

Bradford

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Cambridge

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Oct

Barrow

A

3

3

D

O

G


Southend in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southend in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance as a guest.
Southend, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Forest Green

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Nov

Walsall

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Bradford

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Oct

Port Vale

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Oct

Oldham

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Tranmere

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Oct

Salford

A

0

3

L

O

N

17 Oct

Cheltenham

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bolton and the red line for guest team, Southend.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bolton

22%

32%

28%

19%

Southend

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.65 goals and Southend to score 0.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Bolton to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.44 goals and Southend to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Bolton to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.98

1

5.49

2-3

2.00

2

3.98

4+

4.03

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.98

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

4.03

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.44

3.64

3.18

2-3 goals

1.99

4.25

3.82

4+ goals

2.28

3.22

4.00

Ov 1.5

2.07

3.84

3.88

Un 1.5

2.44

3.64

3.18

Ov 2.5

1.83

6.47

3.34

Un 2.5

2.61

2.68

4.08

Ov 3.5

2.28

3.22

4.00

Un 3.5

2.12

4.02

3.58

Goal-Goal

2.53

2.73

4.20

No Goal

1.85

6.77

3.22

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

5.39

3.27

NG+Un 2.5

2.00

6.77

3.12


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Port Vale vs Leyton Orient at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Port Vale and Leyton Orient for League Two (England), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Port Vale

2.13

2.82

-11.5

Draw

3.42

3.64

-1.8

Leyton Orient

3.36

2.70

7.3

Over 2.5

1.98

2.15

-4.0

Under 2.5

1.84

1.87

-0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leyton Orient (7.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Port Vale in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Port Vale in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance at home.
Port Vale, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Stevenage

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Newport County

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Nov

Scunthorpe

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Nov

Tranmere

H

3

4

L

O

G

31 Oct

Southend

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Cheltenham

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Oldham

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Cambridge

A

1

3

L

O

G


Leyton Orient in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leyton Orient in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance as a guest.
Leyton Orient, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Bradford

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Harrogate

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Nov

Colchester

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Nov

Forest Green

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Bolton

H

4

0

W

O

N

27 Oct

Exeter

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Stevenage

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Tranmere

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Port Vale and the red line for guest team, Leyton Orient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Port Vale

29%

35%

23%

13%

Leyton Orient

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.43 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Port Vale to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.2 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.57

1

5.00

2-3

2.03

2

3.94

4+

4.41

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.57

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.89

3.50

2.72

2-3 goals

2.73

3.97

2.62

4+ goals

2.91

3.24

2.87

Ov 1.5

2.79

3.71

2.69

Un 1.5

2.89

3.50

2.72

Ov 2.5

2.38

6.64

2.33

Un 2.5

3.34

2.62

3.14

Ov 3.5

2.91

3.24

2.87

Un 3.5

2.79

3.78

2.65

Goal-Goal

3.24

2.64

3.20

No Goal

2.47

6.09

2.32

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.46

5.54

2.43

NG+Un 2.5

2.56

6.09

2.41


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



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