Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Strasbourg vs Rennes at 27 November 2020
Paris SG vs Bordeaux at 28 November 2020
Marseille vs Nantes at 28 November 2020
Nice vs Dijon at 29 November 2020
Lens vs Angers at 29 November 2020
St Etienne vs Lille at 29 November 2020
Metz vs Brest at 29 November 2020
Monaco vs Nimes at 29 November 2020
Lorient vs Montpellier at 29 November 2020
Lyon vs Reims at 29 November 2020
Strasbourg vs Rennes at 27 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Strasbourg and Rennes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 27 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Strasbourg |
2.83 |
2.49 |
4.8 |
|
Draw |
3.25 |
3.68 |
-3.6 |
|
Rennes |
2.59 |
3.06 |
-5.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.46 |
-4.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.69 |
0.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Strasbourg, Under 2.5 (4.8 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Strasbourg in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Strasbourg in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance at home.
Strasbourg, at home, had one win, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Nov |
Montpellier |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Nov |
Marseille |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Nov |
Reims |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
25 Oct |
Brest |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
18 Oct |
Lyon |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
04 Oct |
Lille |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
27 Sep |
Monaco |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Sep |
Dijon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Rennes in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rennes in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance as a guest.
Rennes, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rennes was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Nov |
Bordeaux |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Nov |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Brest |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Oct |
Angers |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Oct |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
04 Oct |
Reims |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
26 Sep |
St Etienne |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
19 Sep |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Strasbourg and the red line for guest team, Rennes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Strasbourg |
31% |
31% |
29% |
9% |
|
Rennes |
37% |
36% |
10% |
17% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.11 goals and Rennes to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.16 goals and Rennes to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
8.70 |
0-1 |
2.92 |
|
1 |
4.39 |
2-3 |
2.12 |
|
2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
5.38 |
|
3 |
4.52 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.52 |
|
4 |
8.77 |
Un 1.5 |
2.92 |
|
5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.46 |
|
6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.68 |
|
Gg |
2.30 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.38 |
|
NoG |
1.77 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.98 |
2.98 |
3.04 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.93 |
4.18 |
4.14 |
|
4+ goals |
4.43 |
4.23 |
1.86 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.29 |
4.19 |
3.07 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.98 |
2.98 |
3.04 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
9.25 |
2.22 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.68 |
2.61 |
4.12 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.43 |
4.23 |
1.86 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.57 |
3.59 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.96 |
2.77 |
3.32 |
|
No Goal |
2.22 |
4.92 |
2.89 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
7.32 |
2.46 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
4.92 |
3.34 |
Go to Top
Paris SG vs Bordeaux at 28 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Paris SG and Bordeaux for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Paris SG |
1.18 |
1.75 |
-27.6 |
|
Draw |
7.90 |
4.13 |
11.6 |
|
Bordeaux |
15.10 |
5.32 |
12.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.32 |
2.10 |
-28.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
3.33 |
1.91 |
22.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Bordeaux, Under 2.5 (11.6 %, 12.2 %, 22.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Paris SG in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance at home.
Paris SG, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 80.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Nov |
Monaco |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Nov |
Rennes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Nantes |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Dijon |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
16 Oct |
Nimes |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Oct |
Angers |
H |
6 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Sep |
Reims |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Sep |
Nice |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
Bordeaux in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bordeaux in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance as a guest.
Bordeaux, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Nov |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
07 Nov |
Montpellier |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Nov |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
25 Oct |
Nimes |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
04 Oct |
Dijon |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
27 Sep |
Nice |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Sep |
Lens |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Paris SG and the red line for guest team, Bordeaux.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Paris SG |
16% |
41% |
14% |
30% |
|
Bordeaux |
44% |
33% |
18% |
5% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Paris SG to score 3.2 goals and Bordeaux to score 0.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.65 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 2.75 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Paris SG to score 1.58 goals and Bordeaux to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.36 |
|
1 |
4.35 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
4.44 |
4+ |
4.59 |
|
3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |
|
4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |
|
5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |
|
Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.59 |
|
NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.66 |
4.38 |
5.84 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.04 |
3.58 |
4.35 |
|
4+ goals |
1.42 |
5.45 |
8.72 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.80 |
4.01 |
5.15 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.66 |
4.38 |
5.84 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.45 |
11.90 |
4.45 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.58 |
6.54 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.42 |
5.45 |
8.72 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.88 |
3.85 |
4.82 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.38 |
2.71 |
4.74 |
|
No Goal |
1.42 |
7.72 |
6.03 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |
8.47 |
3.39 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.62 |
7.72 |
4.85 |
Go to Top
Marseille vs Nantes at 28 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Marseille and Nantes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Marseille |
2.07 |
2.20 |
-2.9 |
|
Draw |
3.39 |
3.73 |
-2.7 |
|
Nantes |
3.74 |
3.61 |
1.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.25 |
-1.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.80 |
-3.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Nantes (1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Marseille in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance at home.
Marseille, at home, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Nov |
Strasbourg |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Lorient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Bordeaux |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
04 Oct |
Lyon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Sep |
Metz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Sep |
Lille |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Sep |
St Etienne |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Sep |
Paris SG |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Nantes in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nantes in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance as a guest.
Nantes, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nantes was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
25 Nov |
Lens |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Nov |
Metz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
08 Nov |
Lorient |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Paris SG |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
18 Oct |
Brest |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Nice |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
25 Sep |
Lille |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Sep |
St Etienne |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Marseille and the red line for guest team, Nantes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Marseille |
26% |
29% |
32% |
13% |
|
Nantes |
36% |
36% |
18% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.38 goals and Nantes to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.33 goals and Nantes to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
3.47 |
|
1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
1.96 |
|
2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
4.90 |
|
3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
7.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |
|
5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |
|
Gg |
2.10 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.90 |
|
NoG |
1.91 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.77 |
3.13 |
3.13 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.82 |
4.89 |
4.07 |
|
4+ goals |
2.87 |
2.83 |
3.34 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.03 |
4.05 |
3.83 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.77 |
3.13 |
3.13 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.18 |
3.20 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.84 |
4.00 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.87 |
2.83 |
3.34 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.08 |
4.07 |
3.67 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.55 |
2.71 |
4.18 |
|
No Goal |
1.96 |
5.70 |
3.20 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
5.18 |
3.27 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.70 |
3.25 |
Go to Top
Nice vs Dijon at 29 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Nice and Dijon for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 29 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Nice |
1.85 |
1.56 |
10.0 |
|
Draw |
3.72 |
4.67 |
-5.5 |
|
Dijon |
4.28 |
6.85 |
-8.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.92 |
1.97 |
-1.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.03 |
-1.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Nice (10 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Nice in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance at home.
Nice, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Nov |
Monaco |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Nov |
Angers |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
25 Oct |
Lille |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
18 Oct |
St Etienne |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Nantes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Sep |
Bordeaux |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Sep |
Paris SG |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Sep |
Montpellier |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
Dijon in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dijon in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Dijon’s performance as a guest.
Dijon, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 6.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dijon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Nov |
Lens |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Nov |
Metz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
01 Nov |
Lorient |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Oct |
Rennes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
04 Oct |
Bordeaux |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
27 Sep |
Montpellier |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
20 Sep |
Strasbourg |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nice and the red line for guest team, Dijon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Nice |
16% |
22% |
33% |
28% |
|
Dijon |
49% |
29% |
17% |
5% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nice to score 1.66 goals and Dijon to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Nice to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nice to score 1.74 goals and Dijon to score 0.77 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Nice to win by 0.97 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
4.24 |
|
1 |
6.41 |
2-3 |
1.86 |
|
2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.42 |
|
3 |
3.55 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |
|
4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
4.24 |
|
5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
|
Gg |
2.36 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.42 |
|
NoG |
1.74 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.19 |
2.95 |