# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Strasbourg vs Rennes at 27 November 2020**** Paris SG vs Bordeaux at 28 November 2020**** Marseille vs Nantes at 28 November 2020**** Nice vs Dijon at 29 November 2020**** Lens vs Angers at 29 November 2020**** St Etienne vs Lille at 29 November 2020**** Metz vs Brest at 29 November 2020**** Monaco vs Nimes at 29 November 2020**** Lorient vs Montpellier at 29 November 2020**** Lyon vs Reims at 29 November 2020**

###
Strasbourg vs Rennes at 27 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Strasbourg** and **Rennes** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **27 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Strasbourg |
2.83 |
2.49 |
4.8 |

Draw |
3.25 |
3.68 |
-3.6 |

Rennes |
2.59 |
3.06 |
-5.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.46 |
-4.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.69 |
0.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Strasbourg, Under 2.5 (4.8 %, 0.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Strasbourg** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Strasbourg** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance** at home**.

Strasbourg,** at home**, had one win, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Nov |
Montpellier |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Marseille |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Reims |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Brest |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
Lyon |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Lille |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Sep |
Monaco |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Sep |
Dijon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Rennes** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rennes** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance** as a guest**.

Rennes,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Nov |
Bordeaux |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Brest |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Angers |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Oct |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
Reims |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
St Etienne |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Sep |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Strasbourg** and the red line for guest team, **Rennes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Strasbourg |
31% |
31% |
29% |
9% |

Rennes |
37% |
36% |
10% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Strasbourg** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Rennes** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.07** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Strasbourg** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Rennes** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.70 |
0-1 |
2.92 |

1 |
4.39 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
5.38 |

3 |
4.52 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.52 |

4 |
8.77 |
Un 1.5 |
2.92 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.46 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.68 |

Gg |
2.30 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.38 |

NoG |
1.77 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.98 |
2.98 |
3.04 |

2-3 goals |
1.93 |
4.18 |
4.14 |

4+ goals |
4.43 |
4.23 |
1.86 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.29 |
4.19 |
3.07 |

Un 1.5 |
2.98 |
2.98 |
3.04 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
9.25 |
2.22 |

Un 2.5 |
2.68 |
2.61 |
4.12 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.43 |
4.23 |
1.86 |

Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.57 |
3.59 |

Goal-Goal |
2.96 |
2.77 |
3.32 |

No Goal |
2.22 |
4.92 |
2.89 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
7.32 |
2.46 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
4.92 |
3.34 |

####
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###
Paris SG vs Bordeaux at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Paris SG** and **Bordeaux** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Paris SG |
1.18 |
1.75 |
-27.6 |

Draw |
7.90 |
4.13 |
11.6 |

Bordeaux |
15.10 |
5.32 |
12.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.32 |
2.10 |
-28.1 |

Under 2.5 |
3.33 |
1.91 |
22.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Bordeaux, Under 2.5 (11.6 %, 12.2 %, 22.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Paris SG** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Paris SG** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance** at home**.

Paris SG,** at home**, had 4 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 80.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Nov |
Monaco |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Rennes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Nantes |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Dijon |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Oct |
Nimes |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Oct |
Angers |
H |
6 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Sep |
Reims |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Sep |
Nice |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Bordeaux** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bordeaux** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance** as a guest**.

Bordeaux,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Nov |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Montpellier |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Nimes |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Dijon |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Sep |
Nice |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Sep |
Lens |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Paris SG** and the red line for guest team, **Bordeaux. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Paris SG |
16% |
41% |
14% |
30% |

Bordeaux |
44% |
33% |
18% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Paris SG** to score **3.2 ** goals and **Bordeaux** to score **0.45 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.65** goals in the game and the home team **Paris SG ** to win by **2.75** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Paris SG** to score **1.58 ** goals and **Bordeaux** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Paris SG ** to win by **0.74** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.36 |

1 |
4.35 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.44 |
4+ |
4.59 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |

Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.59 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.66 |
4.38 |
5.84 |

2-3 goals |
2.04 |
3.58 |
4.35 |

4+ goals |
1.42 |
5.45 |
8.72 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.80 |
4.01 |
5.15 |

Un 1.5 |
1.66 |
4.38 |
5.84 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.45 |
11.90 |
4.45 |

Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.58 |
6.54 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.42 |
5.45 |
8.72 |

Un 3.5 |
1.88 |
3.85 |
4.82 |

Goal-Goal |
2.38 |
2.71 |
4.74 |

No Goal |
1.42 |
7.72 |
6.03 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |
8.47 |
3.39 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.62 |
7.72 |
4.85 |

####
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###
Marseille vs Nantes at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Marseille** and **Nantes** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Marseille |
2.07 |
2.20 |
-2.9 |

Draw |
3.39 |
3.73 |
-2.7 |

Nantes |
3.74 |
3.61 |
1.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.25 |
-1.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.80 |
-3.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nantes (1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Marseille** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Marseille** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance** at home**.

Marseille,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Nov |
Strasbourg |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Lorient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Bordeaux |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Lyon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Sep |
Metz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Sep |
Lille |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Sep |
St Etienne |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Sep |
Paris SG |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Nantes** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nantes** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance** as a guest**.

Nantes,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

25 Nov |
Lens |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Metz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Lorient |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Paris SG |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
Brest |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Nice |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Sep |
Lille |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Sep |
St Etienne |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Marseille** and the red line for guest team, **Nantes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Marseille |
26% |
29% |
32% |
13% |

Nantes |
36% |
36% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Nantes** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and the home team **Marseille ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Nantes** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and the home team **Marseille ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
3.47 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
4.90 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.10 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.90 |

NoG |
1.91 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.77 |
3.13 |
3.13 |

2-3 goals |
1.82 |
4.89 |
4.07 |

4+ goals |
2.87 |
2.83 |
3.34 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.03 |
4.05 |
3.83 |

Un 1.5 |
2.77 |
3.13 |
3.13 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.18 |
3.20 |

Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.84 |
4.00 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.87 |
2.83 |
3.34 |

Un 3.5 |
2.08 |
4.07 |
3.67 |

Goal-Goal |
2.55 |
2.71 |
4.18 |

No Goal |
1.96 |
5.70 |
3.20 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
5.18 |
3.27 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.70 |
3.25 |

####
Go to Top

###
Nice vs Dijon at 29 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nice** and **Dijon** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **29 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nice |
1.85 |
1.56 |
10.0 |

Draw |
3.72 |
4.67 |
-5.5 |

Dijon |
4.28 |
6.85 |
-8.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.92 |
1.97 |
-1.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.03 |
-1.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nice (10 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nice** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nice** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance** at home**.

Nice,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Monaco |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Angers |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Lille |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
St Etienne |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Nantes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Sep |
Bordeaux |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Sep |
Paris SG |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Sep |
Montpellier |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Dijon** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Dijon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dijon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Dijon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dijon’s performance** as a guest**.

Dijon,** as a guest**, had no wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 6.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Dijon scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dijon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Nov |
Lens |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Metz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Nov |
Lorient |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Oct |
Rennes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
Bordeaux |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Sep |
Montpellier |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Sep |
Strasbourg |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nice** and the red line for guest team, **Dijon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nice |
16% |
22% |
33% |
28% |

Dijon |
49% |
29% |
17% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nice** to score **1.66 ** goals and **Dijon** to score **0.9 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and the home team **Nice ** to win by **0.76** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nice** to score **1.74 ** goals and **Dijon** to score **0.77 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Nice ** to win by **0.97** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
4.24 |

1 |
6.41 |
2-3 |
1.86 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.42 |

3 |
3.55 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
4.24 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
2.36 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.42 |

NoG |
1.74 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.19 |
2.95 |