Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle at 27 November 2020
West Brom vs Sheffield United at 28 November 2020
Brighton vs Liverpool at 28 November 2020
Everton vs Leeds at 28 November 2020
Man City vs Burnley at 28 November 2020
Chelsea vs Tottenham at 29 November 2020
Southampton vs Man United at 29 November 2020
Arsenal vs Wolves at 29 November 2020
West Ham vs Aston Villa at 30 November 2020
Leicester vs Fulham at 30 November 2020
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle at 27 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Crystal Palace and Newcastle for Premier League (England), which will take place on 27 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Crystal Palace |
2.31 |
1.89 |
9.6 |
|
Draw |
3.21 |
4.08 |
-6.6 |
|
Newcastle |
3.36 |
4.41 |
-7.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
1.90 |
8.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
2.11 |
-13.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Crystal Palace, Over 2.5 (9.6 %, 8.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Crystal Palace in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crystal Palace in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance at home.
Crystal Palace, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Nov |
Burnley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Nov |
Leeds |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Oct |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
18 Oct |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
26 Sep |
Everton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Sep |
Man United |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Newcastle in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance as a guest.
Newcastle, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Nov |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Nov |
Everton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
25 Oct |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Man United |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Burnley |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Sep |
Tottenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Sep |
Brighton |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crystal Palace and the red line for guest team, Newcastle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Crystal Palace |
20% |
28% |
26% |
26% |
|
Newcastle |
36% |
36% |
18% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.26 goals and Newcastle to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.59 goals and Newcastle to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Crystal Palace to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
4.10 |
|
1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
3.75 |
|
3 |
3.86 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
4.10 |
|
5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
|
6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.75 |
|
NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.44 |
3.44 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.73 |
4.80 |
4.71 |
|
4+ goals |
1.87 |
3.71 |
5.13 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.77 |
4.35 |
4.85 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.44 |
3.44 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
7.31 |
4.35 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.75 |
4.48 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.87 |
3.71 |
5.13 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.90 |
4.24 |
4.19 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.16 |
2.95 |
5.03 |
|
No Goal |
1.67 |
6.87 |
3.90 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
5.71 |
4.03 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.87 |
3.52 |
Go to Top
West Brom vs Sheffield United at 28 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between West Brom and Sheffield United for Premier League (England), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
West Brom |
2.62 |
2.35 |
4.4 |
|
Draw |
3.19 |
4.03 |
-6.5 |
|
Sheffield United |
2.89 |
3.07 |
-2.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.30 |
1.84 |
10.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
2.19 |
-15.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at West Brom, Over 2.5 (4.4 %, 10.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
West Brom in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Brom in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance at home.
West Brom, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Brom was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Nov |
Tottenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Nov |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Oct |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Oct |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
04 Oct |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Sep |
Chelsea |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Sep |
Everton |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
Sheffield United in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield United in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance as a guest.
Sheffield United, as a guest, had no wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Nov |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Nov |
Chelsea |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Man City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
18 Oct |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
04 Oct |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Sep |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Sep |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, West Brom and the red line for guest team, Sheffield United.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
West Brom |
28% |
17% |
42% |
14% |
|
Sheffield United |
28% |
34% |
22% |
16% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Brom to score 1.15 goals and Sheffield United to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Brom to score 1.42 goals and Sheffield United to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
4.55 |
|
1 |
7.09 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
3.55 |
|
3 |
3.82 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.55 |
|
5 |
10.31 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.19 |
|
Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.55 |
|
NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
4.68 |
2.78 |
2.34 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.65 |
8.74 |
3.58 |
|
4+ goals |
3.66 |
2.52 |
3.03 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.06 |
4.62 |
3.36 |
|
Un 1.5 |
4.68 |
2.78 |
2.34 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
4.86 |
3.14 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.73 |
3.35 |
2.98 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.66 |
2.52 |
3.03 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.06 |
5.28 |
3.08 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.35 |
3.07 |
4.02 |
|
No Goal |
2.34 |
6.10 |
2.45 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
4.12 |
3.57 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.39 |
6.10 |
2.61 |
Go to Top
Brighton vs Liverpool at 28 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Brighton and Liverpool for Premier League (England), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Brighton |
5.38 |
2.80 |
17.1 |
|
Draw |
4.10 |
3.82 |
1.8 |
|
Liverpool |
1.63 |
2.62 |
-23.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.60 |
1.91 |
-10.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.37 |
2.10 |
5.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Brighton, Draw, Under 2.5 (17.1 %, 1.8 %, 5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Brighton in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brighton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance at home.
Brighton, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brighton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Nov |
Aston Villa |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Nov |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
01 Nov |
Tottenham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Oct |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
18 Oct |
Crystal Palace |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Everton |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Sep |
Man United |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Sep |
Newcastle |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
Liverpool in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Liverpool in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Liverpool’s performance as a guest.
Liverpool, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Liverpool was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Nov |
Leicester |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
08 Nov |
Man City |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Oct |
West Ham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Sheffield United |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Everton |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
04 Oct |
Aston Villa |
A |
2 |
7 |
L |
O |
G |
|
28 Sep |
Arsenal |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Sep |
Chelsea |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brighton and the red line for guest team, Liverpool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Brighton |
30% |
36% |
7% |
28% |
|
Liverpool |
26% |
33% |
23% |
18% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brighton to score 0.88 goals and Liverpool to score 2.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.97 goals in the game and the guest team Liverpool to win by 1.21 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brighton to score 1.31 goals and Liverpool to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.68 |
|
1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
2.30 |
|
2 |
4.90 |
4+ |
3.40 |
|
3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |
|
5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
|
6+ |
20.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.40 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.92 |
3.44 |
2.72 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.91 |
3.68 |
2.12 |
|
4+ goals |
1.92 |
4.52 |
3.87 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.76 |
3.98 |
2.59 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.92 |
3.44 |
2.72 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
8.06 |
2.47 |
|
Un 2.5 |
4.33 |
2.42 |
2.82 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.92 |
4.52 |
3.87 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.46 |
3.58 |
2.31 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.94 |
2.81 |
3.28 |
|
No Goal |
2.66 |
6.14 |
2.17 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
6.11 |
2.53 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.25 |
6.14 |
2.12 |
Go to Top
Everton vs Leeds at 28 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Everton and Leeds for Premier League (England), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Everton |
2.04 |
2.76 |
-12.8 |
|
Draw |
3.70 |
3.77 |
-0.5 |
|
Leeds |
3.60 |
2.68 |
9.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.63 |
1.93 |
-9.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.07 |
5.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Leeds, Under 2.5 (9.5 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Everton in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance at home.
Everton, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Nov |
Fulham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
07 Nov |
Man United |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Nov |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
25 Oct |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Liverpool |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Brighton |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Sep |
Crystal Palace |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Sep |
West Brom |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
Leeds in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leeds in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance as a guest.
Leeds, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leeds was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Nov |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
07 Nov |
Crystal Palace |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Nov |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Oct |
Aston Villa |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
19 Oct |
Wolves |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Man City |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Sep |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Sep |
Fulham |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Everton and the red line for guest team, Leeds.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Everton |
29% |
39% |
2% |
30% |
|
Leeds |
27% |
33% |
22% |
17% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Everton to score 1.76 goals and Leeds to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.93 goals in the game and the home team Everton to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Everton to score 1.32 goals and Leeds to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.55 |
|
1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
2.35 |
|
2 |
4.98 |
4+ |
3.42 |
|
3 |
4.46 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.55 |
|
5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
|
6+ |
19.23 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.42 |
|
NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |