2020 11 27 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao at 27 November 2020
Tondela vs Guimaraes at 28 November 2020
Sp Lisbon vs Moreirense at 28 November 2020
Santa Clara vs Porto at 28 November 2020
Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave at 29 November 2020
Sp Braga vs Farense at 29 November 2020
Portimonense vs Nacional at 29 November 2020
Boavista vs Belenenses at 29 November 2020
Maritimo vs Benfica at 30 November 2020


Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao at 27 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 27 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pacos Ferreira

2.06

1.94

3.0

Draw

3.26

3.85

-4.7

Famalicao

3.67

4.46

-4.8

Over 2.5

2.08

1.99

2.2

Under 2.5

1.77

2.01

-6.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (3 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance at home.
Pacos Ferreira, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Oct

Porto

H

3

2

W

O

G

24 Oct

Nacional

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Santa Clara

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Oct

Guimaraes

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Sep

Sp Lisbon

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Sep

Portimonense

A

1

1

D

U

G


Famalicao in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Famalicao in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance as a guest.
Famalicao, as a guest, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Famalicao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Sp Braga

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Oct

Boavista

H

2

2

D

O

G

18 Oct

Farense

A

3

3

D

O

G

04 Oct

Rio Ave

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Sep

Belenenses

A

2

1

W

O

G

18 Sep

Benfica

H

1

5

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pacos Ferreira and the red line for guest team, Famalicao.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pacos Ferreira

19%

31%

26%

24%

Famalicao

32%

48%

8%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.43 goals and Famalicao to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.55 goals and Famalicao to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

3.97

1

5.24

2-3

2.02

2

4.07

4+

3.95

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

5.81

Un 1.5

3.97

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.22

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

4.13

2.77

2-3 goals

1.74

3.32

8.10

4+ goals

1.92

5.16

3.51

Ov 1.5

1.80

3.77

5.62

Un 1.5

2.52

4.13

2.77

Ov 2.5

1.50

10.22

4.21

Un 2.5

2.72

2.37

4.74

Ov 3.5

1.92

5.16

3.51

Un 3.5

1.94

3.55

4.91

Goal-Goal

2.14

2.77

5.78

No Goal

1.73

7.38

3.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.56

8.16

4.21

NG+Un 2.5

1.91

7.38

3.32


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Tondela vs Guimaraes at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Tondela and Guimaraes for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tondela

3.36

4.12

-5.5

Draw

3.36

3.83

-3.7

Guimaraes

2.11

2.01

2.4

Over 2.5

2.07

2.27

-4.3

Under 2.5

1.76

1.79

-1.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Guimaraes (2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tondela in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance at home.
Tondela, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Santa Clara

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Sp Lisbon

A

0

4

L

O

N

23 Oct

Portimonense

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Gil Vicente

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Oct

Sp Braga

H

0

4

L

O

N

26 Sep

Maritimo

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Sep

Rio Ave

H

1

1

D

U

G


Guimaraes in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Guimaraes in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance as a guest.
Guimaraes, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Guimaraes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Sp Lisbon

H

0

4

L

O

N

01 Nov

Gil Vicente

A

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Sp Braga

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Oct

Boavista

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Oct

Pacos Ferreira

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N

18 Sep

Belenenses

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tondela and the red line for guest team, Guimaraes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tondela

39%

38%

16%

7%

Guimaraes

26%

25%

32%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tondela to score 0.99 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.39 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the guest team Guimaraes to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tondela to score 0.92 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.39 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the guest team Guimaraes to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

3.36

1

5.08

2-3

1.98

2

3.85

4+

5.13

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.36

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.21

Ov 3.5

5.13

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.01

2.95

3.04

2-3 goals

4.95

5.26

1.64

4+ goals

4.76

3.10

2.14

Ov 1.5

4.90

4.40

1.76

Un 1.5

3.01

2.95

3.04

Ov 2.5

4.36

6.98

1.59

Un 2.5

3.96

2.83

2.54

Ov 3.5

4.76

3.10

2.14

Un 3.5

4.00

4.08

1.98

Goal-Goal

5.51

2.84

2.14

No Goal

3.41

5.41

1.92

G-G+Ov 2.5

4.34

5.65

1.69

NG+Un 2.5

3.28

5.41

2.10


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sp Lisbon vs Moreirense at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Lisbon and Moreirense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sp Lisbon

1.27

1.66

-18.5

Draw

5.55

4.20

5.8

Moreirense

10.57

6.29

6.4

Over 2.5

1.64

2.53

-21.4

Under 2.5

2.24

1.66

15.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Moreirense, Under 2.5 (5.8 %, 6.4 %, 15.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance at home.
Sp Lisbon, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Guimaraes

A

4

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Tondela

H

4

0

W

O

N

28 Oct

Gil Vicente

H

3

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Santa Clara

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Porto

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Oct

Portimonense

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Pacos Ferreira

A

2

0

W

U

N


Moreirense in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Moreirense in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance as a guest.
Moreirense, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 7 results of Moreirense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Oct

Rio Ave

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Oct

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

Belenenses

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Oct

Boavista

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Sep

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Sep

Farense

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Lisbon and the red line for guest team, Moreirense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sp Lisbon

21%

32%

25%

22%

Moreirense

59%

19%

20%

2%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 2.38 goals and Moreirense to score 0.5 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.88 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 1.48 goals and Moreirense to score 0.64 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.06

0-1

2.83

1

4.37

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

6.62

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.55

4

10.20

Un 1.5

2.83

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.53

6+

200.00

Un 2.5

1.66

Gg

3.12

Ov 3.5

6.62

NoG

1.47

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.86

2.85

9.05

2-3 goals

1.51

8.25

4.58

4+ goals

1.78

2.80

12.58

Ov 1.5

1.57

5.67

5.38

Un 1.5

1.86

2.85

9.05

Ov 2.5

1.51

7.33

5.01

Un 2.5

1.78

3.28

7.54

Ov 3.5

1.78

2.80

12.58

Un 3.5

1.64

4.61

5.77

Goal-Goal

2.43

2.82

4.28

No Goal

1.44

5.47

8.07

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

4.83

3.48

NG+Un 2.5

1.60

5.47

6.79


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Santa Clara vs Porto at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Santa Clara and Porto for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Santa Clara

6.10

3.61

11.3

Draw

3.96

3.75

1.4

Porto

1.53

2.19

-19.7

Over 2.5

1.93

2.26

-7.6

Under 2.5

1.88

1.79

2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Santa Clara, Draw, Under 2.5 (11.3 %, 1.4 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Santa Clara in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Santa Clara in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance at home.
Santa Clara, at home, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Santa Clara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Tondela

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Portimonense

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Sp Lisbon

H

1

2

L

O

G

18 Oct

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Gil Vicente

H

0

0

D

U

N

25 Sep

Sp Braga

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Sep

Maritimo

H

2

0

W

U

N


Porto in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Porto in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance as a guest.
Porto, as a guest, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Porto was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Portimonense

H

3

1

W

O

G

30 Oct

Pacos Ferreira

A

2

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Gil Vicente

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Sp Lisbon

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Maritimo

H

2

3

L

O

G

26 Sep

Boavista

A

5

0

W

O

N

19 Sep

Sp Braga

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Santa Clara and the red line for guest team, Porto.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Santa Clara

36%

38%

17%

9%

Porto

28%

27%

29%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 0.68 goals and Porto to score 1.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 1.15 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1 goals and Porto to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

3.31

1

4.95

2-3

2.02

2

3.91

4+

4.93

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.41

Un 1.5

3.31

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.26

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

4.93

NoG

1.86

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.90

3.02

3.08

2-3 goals

4.10

4.86

1.82

4+ goals

3.90

3.12

2.36

Ov 1.5

4.04

4.19

1.95

Un 1.5

2.90

3.02

3.08

Ov 2.5

3.54

6.82

1.75

Un 2.5

3.67

2.76

2.74

Ov 3.5

3.90

3.12

2.36

Un 3.5

3.55

3.95

2.15

Goal-Goal

4.68

2.77

2.35

No Goal

3.02

5.38

2.07

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.65

5.55

1.83

NG+Un 2.5

3.00

5.38

2.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave at 29 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Gil Vicente and Rio Ave for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 29 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Gil Vicente

3.01

1.87

20.3

Draw

3.09

3.92

-6.9

Rio Ave

2.43

4.74

-20.1

Over 2.5

2.30

1.84

10.9

Under 2.5

1.61

2.19

-16.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Gil Vicente, Over 2.5 (20.3 %, 10.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Gil Vicente in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gil Vicente in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance at home.
Gil Vicente, at home, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Gil Vicente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res