# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao at 27 November 2020**** Tondela vs Guimaraes at 28 November 2020**** Sp Lisbon vs Moreirense at 28 November 2020**** Santa Clara vs Porto at 28 November 2020**** Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave at 29 November 2020**** Sp Braga vs Farense at 29 November 2020**** Portimonense vs Nacional at 29 November 2020**** Boavista vs Belenenses at 29 November 2020**** Maritimo vs Benfica at 30 November 2020**

###
Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao at 27 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Pacos Ferreira** and **Famalicao** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **27 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Pacos Ferreira |
2.06 |
1.94 |
3.0 |

Draw |
3.26 |
3.85 |
-4.7 |

Famalicao |
3.67 |
4.46 |
-4.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
1.99 |
2.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
2.01 |
-6.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (3 %, 2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Pacos Ferreira** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pacos Ferreira** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance** at home**.

Pacos Ferreira,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 6 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Oct |
Porto |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Nacional |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
Santa Clara |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Oct |
Guimaraes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Sep |
Portimonense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Famalicao** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Famalicao scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Famalicao** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance** as a guest**.

Famalicao,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 6 results of Famalicao was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Boavista |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Farense |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Sep |
Belenenses |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Sep |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Pacos Ferreira** and the red line for guest team, **Famalicao. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Pacos Ferreira |
19% |
31% |
26% |
24% |

Famalicao |
32% |
48% |
8% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Famalicao** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Pacos Ferreira ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Famalicao** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and the home team **Pacos Ferreira ** to win by **0.54** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
3.97 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
5.81 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.82 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
2.22 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.52 |
4.13 |
2.77 |

2-3 goals |
1.74 |
3.32 |
8.10 |

4+ goals |
1.92 |
5.16 |
3.51 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.80 |
3.77 |
5.62 |

Un 1.5 |
2.52 |
4.13 |
2.77 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.50 |
10.22 |
4.21 |

Un 2.5 |
2.72 |
2.37 |
4.74 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.92 |
5.16 |
3.51 |

Un 3.5 |
1.94 |
3.55 |
4.91 |

Goal-Goal |
2.14 |
2.77 |
5.78 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
7.38 |
3.49 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.56 |
8.16 |
4.21 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.91 |
7.38 |
3.32 |

####
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###
Tondela vs Guimaraes at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Tondela** and **Guimaraes** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Tondela |
3.36 |
4.12 |
-5.5 |

Draw |
3.36 |
3.83 |
-3.7 |

Guimaraes |
2.11 |
2.01 |
2.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.27 |
-4.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.79 |
-1.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Guimaraes (2.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Tondela** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tondela** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance** at home**.

Tondela,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Tondela was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Santa Clara |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Oct |
Portimonense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Gil Vicente |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Oct |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

26 Sep |
Maritimo |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Sep |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Guimaraes** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Guimaraes** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance** as a guest**.

Guimaraes,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Guimaraes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Oct |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Oct |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

18 Sep |
Belenenses |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Tondela** and the red line for guest team, **Guimaraes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Tondela |
39% |
38% |
16% |
7% |

Guimaraes |
26% |
25% |
32% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Tondela** to score **0.99 ** goals and **Guimaraes** to score **1.39 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the guest team **Guimaraes ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Tondela** to score **0.92 ** goals and **Guimaraes** to score **1.39 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the guest team **Guimaraes ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.90 |
0-1 |
3.36 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
5.13 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.52 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
2.21 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.13 |

NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.01 |
2.95 |
3.04 |

2-3 goals |
4.95 |
5.26 |
1.64 |

4+ goals |
4.76 |
3.10 |
2.14 |

Ov 1.5 |
4.90 |
4.40 |
1.76 |

Un 1.5 |
3.01 |
2.95 |
3.04 |

Ov 2.5 |
4.36 |
6.98 |
1.59 |

Un 2.5 |
3.96 |
2.83 |
2.54 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |
3.10 |
2.14 |

Un 3.5 |
4.00 |
4.08 |
1.98 |

Goal-Goal |
5.51 |
2.84 |
2.14 |

No Goal |
3.41 |
5.41 |
1.92 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
4.34 |
5.65 |
1.69 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.28 |
5.41 |
2.10 |

####
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###
Sp Lisbon vs Moreirense at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sp Lisbon** and **Moreirense** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sp Lisbon |
1.27 |
1.66 |
-18.5 |

Draw |
5.55 |
4.20 |
5.8 |

Moreirense |
10.57 |
6.29 |
6.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.64 |
2.53 |
-21.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.24 |
1.66 |
15.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Moreirense, Under 2.5 (5.8 %, 6.4 %, 15.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sp Lisbon** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sp Lisbon** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance** at home**.

Sp Lisbon,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Guimaraes |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Tondela |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

28 Oct |
Gil Vicente |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Santa Clara |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Porto |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Portimonense |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Moreirense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Moreirense** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance** as a guest**.

Moreirense,** as a guest**, had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 7 results of Moreirense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Oct |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Oct |
Boavista |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Sep |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Sep |
Farense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sp Lisbon** and the red line for guest team, **Moreirense. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sp Lisbon |
21% |
32% |
25% |
22% |

Moreirense |
59% |
19% |
20% |
2% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sp Lisbon** to score **2.38 ** goals and **Moreirense** to score **0.5 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.88** goals in the game and the home team **Sp Lisbon ** to win by **1.88** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sp Lisbon** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Moreirense** to score **0.64 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.12** goals in the game and the home team **Sp Lisbon ** to win by **0.84** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.06 |
0-1 |
2.83 |

1 |
4.37 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
6.62 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.55 |

4 |
10.20 |
Un 1.5 |
2.83 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.53 |

6+ |
200.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.66 |

Gg |
3.12 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.62 |

NoG |
1.47 |
Un 3.5 |
1.18 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.86 |
2.85 |
9.05 |

2-3 goals |
1.51 |
8.25 |
4.58 |

4+ goals |
1.78 |
2.80 |
12.58 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.57 |
5.67 |
5.38 |

Un 1.5 |
1.86 |
2.85 |
9.05 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.51 |
7.33 |
5.01 |

Un 2.5 |
1.78 |
3.28 |
7.54 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.78 |
2.80 |
12.58 |

Un 3.5 |
1.64 |
4.61 |
5.77 |

Goal-Goal |
2.43 |
2.82 |
4.28 |

No Goal |
1.44 |
5.47 |
8.07 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
4.83 |
3.48 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.60 |
5.47 |
6.79 |

####
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###
Santa Clara vs Porto at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Santa Clara** and **Porto** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Santa Clara |
6.10 |
3.61 |
11.3 |

Draw |
3.96 |
3.75 |
1.4 |

Porto |
1.53 |
2.19 |
-19.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.93 |
2.26 |
-7.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.79 |
2.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Santa Clara, Draw, Under 2.5 (11.3 %, 1.4 %, 2.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Santa Clara** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Santa Clara** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance** at home**.

Santa Clara,** at home**, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Santa Clara was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Tondela |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Portimonense |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Gil Vicente |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

25 Sep |
Sp Braga |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Sep |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Porto** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Porto** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance** as a guest**.

Porto,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Porto was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Portimonense |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Oct |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Gil Vicente |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Boavista |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Sep |
Sp Braga |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Santa Clara** and the red line for guest team, **Porto. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Santa Clara |
36% |
38% |
17% |
9% |

Porto |
28% |
27% |
29% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Santa Clara** to score **0.68 ** goals and **Porto** to score **1.83 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the guest team **Porto ** to win by **1.15** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Santa Clara** to score **1 ** goals and **Porto** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the guest team **Porto ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.00 |
0-1 |
3.31 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.93 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.31 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
2.16 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.93 |

NoG |
1.86 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.90 |
3.02 |
3.08 |

2-3 goals |
4.10 |
4.86 |
1.82 |

4+ goals |
3.90 |
3.12 |
2.36 |

Ov 1.5 |
4.04 |
4.19 |
1.95 |

Un 1.5 |
2.90 |
3.02 |
3.08 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.54 |
6.82 |
1.75 |

Un 2.5 |
3.67 |
2.76 |
2.74 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.90 |
3.12 |
2.36 |

Un 3.5 |
3.55 |
3.95 |
2.15 |

Goal-Goal |
4.68 |
2.77 |
2.35 |

No Goal |
3.02 |
5.38 |
2.07 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.65 |
5.55 |
1.83 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.00 |
5.38 |
2.24 |

####
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###
Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave at 29 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Gil Vicente** and **Rio Ave** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **29 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Gil Vicente |
3.01 |
1.87 |
20.3 |

Draw |
3.09 |
3.92 |
-6.9 |

Rio Ave |
2.43 |
4.74 |
-20.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.30 |
1.84 |
10.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
2.19 |
-16.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Gil Vicente, Over 2.5 (20.3 %, 10.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Gil Vicente** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gil Vicente** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance** at home**.

Gil Vicente,** at home**, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Gil Vicente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |