2020 11 27 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Alcorcon vs Girona at 27 November 2020
Malaga vs Lugo at 27 November 2020
Vallecano vs Cartagena at 28 November 2020
Sabadell vs Fuenlabrada at 28 November 2020
Mirandes vs Castellon at 28 November 2020
Ponferradina vs Leganes at 29 November 2020
Mallorca vs Logrones at 29 November 2020
Espanol vs Zaragoza at 29 November 2020
Albacete vs Tenerife at 29 November 2020
Las Palmas vs Sp Gijon at 29 November 2020
Oviedo vs Almeria at 30 November 2020


Alcorcon vs Girona at 27 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Alcorcon and Girona for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 27 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Alcorcon

2.89

2.53

4.9

Draw

2.82

3.47

-6.6

Girona

2.76

3.15

-4.5

Over 2.5

2.69

2.48

3.1

Under 2.5

1.47

1.68

-8.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Alcorcon, Over 2.5 (4.9 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Alcorcon in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Alcorcon in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Alcorcon’s performance at home.
Alcorcon, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alcorcon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Castellon

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Nov

Lugo

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Nov

Leganes

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Fuenlabrada

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Nov

Ponferradina

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Nov

Logrones

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Oct

Sp Gijon

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Oct

Mallorca

H

0

2

L

U

N


Girona in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Girona in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Girona’s performance as a guest.
Girona, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Girona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Malaga

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Nov

Espanol

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Mallorca

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Nov

Las Palmas

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Nov

Zaragoza

A

2

2

D

O

G

01 Nov

Almeria

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Oct

Cartagena

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Castellon

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Alcorcon and the red line for guest team, Girona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Alcorcon

29%

36%

24%

12%

Girona

34%

36%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Alcorcon to score 0.98 goals and Girona to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.99 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Alcorcon to score 1.18 goals and Girona to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.07

1

4.41

2-3

2.02

2

3.70

4+

5.56

3

4.44

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.13

Un 1.5

3.07

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.47

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

5.56

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.29

3.13

2-3 goals

2.39

3.81

3.13

4+ goals

2.73

3.05

3.27

Ov 1.5

2.47

3.57

3.17

Un 1.5

2.65

3.29

3.13

Ov 2.5

2.11

6.86

2.63

Un 2.5

2.92

2.60

3.66

Ov 3.5

2.73

3.05

3.27

Un 3.5

2.49

3.59

3.13

Goal-Goal

3.09

2.48

3.66

No Goal

2.18

5.37

2.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

5.75

2.65

NG+Un 2.5

2.28

5.37

2.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Malaga vs Lugo at 27 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Malaga and Lugo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 27 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Malaga

2.41

2.28

2.4

Draw

2.94

3.56

-5.9

Lugo

3.24

3.55

-2.7

Over 2.5

2.70

2.38

5.0

Under 2.5

1.47

1.73

-10.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Malaga, Over 2.5 (2.4 %, 5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Malaga in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Malaga in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Malaga’s performance at home.
Malaga, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Malaga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Girona

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Leganes

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Nov

Ponferradina

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Sabadell

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Espanol

H

0

3

L

O

N

29 Oct

Mallorca

A

1

3

L

O

G

25 Oct

Mirandes

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Oct

Sp Gijon

H

1

0

W

U

N


Lugo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lugo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance as a guest.
Lugo, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Oviedo

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Nov

Alcorcon

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Nov

Albacete

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Espanol

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Nov

Vallecano

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Oct

Tenerife

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Logrones

A

3

2

W

O

G

21 Oct

Girona

H

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Malaga and the red line for guest team, Lugo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Malaga

26%

35%

25%

14%

Lugo

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.09 goals and Lugo to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.99 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.28 goals and Lugo to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.21

1

4.55

2-3

2.01

2

3.75

4+

5.26

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.69

Un 1.5

3.21

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.38

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.73

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

5.26

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.39

3.28

2-3 goals

2.15

3.86

3.64

4+ goals

2.38

3.17

3.80

Ov 1.5

2.21

3.64

3.68

Un 1.5

2.50

3.39

3.28

Ov 2.5

1.89

7.02

3.05

Un 2.5

2.71

2.62

4.02

Ov 3.5

2.38

3.17

3.80

Un 3.5

2.27

3.67

3.49

Goal-Goal

2.78

2.53

4.09

No Goal

1.97

5.67

3.16

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.03

5.82

2.98

NG+Un 2.5

2.10

5.67

3.12


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Vallecano vs Cartagena at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Vallecano and Cartagena for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Vallecano

1.81

2.04

-6.2

Draw

3.53

3.73

-1.5

Cartagena

4.64

4.12

2.7

Over 2.5

2.31

2.23

1.6

Under 2.5

1.65

1.81

-5.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cartagena, Over 2.5 (2.7 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Vallecano in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vallecano in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Vallecano’s performance at home.
Vallecano, at home, had 5 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vallecano was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Nov

Zaragoza

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Castellon

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Nov

Sp Gijon

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Almeria

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Nov

Lugo

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Oct

Fuenlabrada

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Albacete

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Oct

Oviedo

A

0

0

D

U

N


Cartagena in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cartagena in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance as a guest.
Cartagena, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Nov

Mallorca

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Mirandes

A

1

4

L

O

G

15 Nov

Castellon

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Logrones

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Albacete

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Girona

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Las Palmas

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Oct

Almeria

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vallecano and the red line for guest team, Cartagena.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Vallecano

21%

34%

26%

18%

Cartagena

37%

37%

18%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.47 goals and Cartagena to score 0.76 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.41 goals and Cartagena to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.48

1

4.83

2-3

1.97

2

3.79

4+

4.83

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.48

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.22

3.59

3.68

2-3 goals

1.94

4.02

4.23

4+ goals

2.09

3.34

4.50

Ov 1.5

1.98

3.80

4.30

Un 1.5

2.22

3.59

3.68

Ov 2.5

1.72

7.26

3.57

Un 2.5

2.43

2.67

4.67

Ov 3.5

2.09

3.34

4.50

Un 3.5

2.04

3.85

4.01

Goal-Goal

2.53

2.62

4.48

No Goal

1.73

6.35

3.79

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

5.92

3.34

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

6.35

3.60


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sabadell vs Fuenlabrada at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sabadell and Fuenlabrada for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sabadell

3.01

2.62

4.9

Draw

2.93

3.46

-5.2

Fuenlabrada

2.59

3.04

-5.7

Over 2.5

2.66

2.49

2.6

Under 2.5

1.46

1.67

-8.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sabadell, Over 2.5 (4.9 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sabadell in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sabadell in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance at home.
Sabadell, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Nov

Sp Gijon

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Nov

Las Palmas

H

3

1

W

O

G

15 Nov

Logrones

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Malaga

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Nov

Almeria

H

1

2

L

O

G

01 Nov

Ponferradina

A

3

0

W

O

N

29 Oct

Leganes

H

1

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Zaragoza

A

0

0

D

U

N


Fuenlabrada in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fuenlabrada in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance as a guest.
Fuenlabrada, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Nov

Ponferradina

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Oviedo

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Espanol

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Alcorcon

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Tenerife

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Oct

Vallecano

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Almeria

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Oct

Logrones

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sabadell and the red line for guest team, Fuenlabrada.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sabadell

29%

36%

23%

11%

Fuenlabrada

34%

36%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sabadell to score 0.94 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.99 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sabadell to score 1.15 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

3.05

1

4.39

2-3

2.02

2

3.69

4+

5.62

3

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.13

Un 1.5

3.05

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.49

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.67

Gg

2.14

Ov 3.5

5.62

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.28