2020 11 27 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sassuolo vs Inter at 28 November 2020
Benevento vs Juventus at 28 November 2020
Atalanta vs Verona at 28 November 2020
Napoli vs Roma at 29 November 2020
Bologna vs Crotone at 29 November 2020
Cagliari vs Spezia at 29 November 2020
Lazio vs Udinese at 29 November 2020
Milan vs Fiorentina at 29 November 2020
Torino vs Sampdoria at 30 November 2020
Genoa vs Parma at 30 November 2020


Sassuolo vs Inter at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sassuolo and Inter for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sassuolo

4.48

3.24

8.5

Draw

4.06

3.29

5.8

Inter

1.75

2.58

-18.4

Over 2.5

1.44

2.47

-29.0

Under 2.5

2.73

1.68

22.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sassuolo, Draw, Under 2.5 (8.5 %, 5.8 %, 22.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sassuolo in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sassuolo in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance at home.
Sassuolo, at home, had one win, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Verona

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Nov

Udinese

H

0

0

D

U

N

01 Nov

Napoli

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Oct

Torino

H

3

3

D

O

G

18 Oct

Bologna

A

4

3

W

O

G

03 Oct

Crotone

H

4

1

W

O

G

27 Sep

Spezia

A

4

1

W

O

G

20 Sep

Cagliari

H

1

1

D

U

G


Inter in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Inter in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance as a guest.
Inter, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Torino

H

4

2

W

O

G

08 Nov

Atalanta

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Parma

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Oct

Genoa

A

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G

04 Oct

Lazio

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Sep

Benevento

A

5

2

W

O

G

26 Sep

Fiorentina

H

4

3

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sassuolo and the red line for guest team, Inter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sassuolo

40%

25%

29%

6%

Inter

44%

7%

35%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.09 goals and Inter to score 2.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.28 goals in the game and the guest team Inter to win by 1.1 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.02 goals and Inter to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.71

0-1

3.23

1

7.41

2-3

2.10

2

3.50

4+

4.65

3

5.26

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.23

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.47

6+

111.11

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.96

Ov 3.5

4.65

NoG

1.51

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.87

1.77

11.48

2-3 goals

2.70

28.00

1.68

4+ goals

8.60

1.90

2.79

Ov 1.5

3.44

5.32

1.92

Un 1.5

2.87

1.77

11.48

Ov 2.5

5.62

3.58

1.84

Un 2.5

2.51

3.10

3.57

Ov 3.5

8.60

1.90

2.79

Un 3.5

2.77

4.09

2.54

Goal-Goal

7.51

2.60

2.07

No Goal

2.51

3.79

2.96

G-G+Ov 2.5

7.13

2.84

1.97

NG+Un 2.5

2.44

3.79

3.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Benevento vs Juventus at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Benevento and Juventus for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Benevento

8.95

3.50

17.4

Draw

5.62

3.48

10.9

Juventus

1.33

2.34

-32.5

Over 2.5

1.45

2.11

-21.6

Under 2.5

2.73

1.90

16.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Benevento, Draw, Under 2.5 (17.4 %, 10.9 %, 16 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Benevento in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benevento in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance at home.
Benevento, at home, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Fiorentina

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Spezia

H

0

3

L

O

N

02 Nov

Verona

A

1

3

L

O

G

25 Oct

Napoli

H

1

2

L

O

G

18 Oct

Roma

A

2

5

L

O

G

04 Oct

Bologna

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Sep

Inter

H

2

5

L

O

G

26 Sep

Sampdoria

A

3

2

W

O

G


Juventus in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance as a guest.
Juventus, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Cagliari

H

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Lazio

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Spezia

A

4

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Crotone

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Napoli

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Sep

Roma

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Sep

Sampdoria

H

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Benevento and the red line for guest team, Juventus.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Benevento

41%

14%

40%

5%

Juventus

32%

18%

30%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benevento to score 0.63 goals and Juventus to score 2.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.27 goals in the game and the guest team Juventus to win by 2.01 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benevento to score 1.09 goals and Juventus to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.58

0-1

4.03

1

8.62

2-3

2.05

2

3.62

4+

3.82

3

4.74

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.41

Un 1.5

4.03

5

10.42

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

2.51

Ov 3.5

3.82

NoG

1.67

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.77

1.88

3.40

2-3 goals

2.23

20.29

1.99

4+ goals

10.92

2.02

2.43

Ov 1.5

3.10

4.86

2.12

Un 1.5

5.77

1.88

3.40

Ov 2.5

4.22

3.64

2.05

Un 2.5

3.03

3.36

2.69

Ov 3.5

10.92

2.02

2.43

Un 3.5

2.82

4.71

2.31

Goal-Goal

4.15

2.58

2.69

No Goal

3.17

4.54

2.15

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.90

2.88

2.53

NG+Un 2.5

2.89

4.54

2.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Atalanta vs Verona at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Atalanta and Verona for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atalanta

1.37

2.12

-25.8

Draw

5.42

3.33

11.6

Verona

7.98

4.35

10.5

Over 2.5

1.41

2.14

-24.2

Under 2.5

2.88

1.88

18.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Verona, Under 2.5 (11.6 %, 10.5 %, 18.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atalanta in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atalanta in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance at home.
Atalanta, at home, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Spezia

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Nov

Inter

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Crotone

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Sampdoria

H

1

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

Napoli

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Oct

Cagliari

H

5

2

W

O

G

30 Sep

Lazio

A

4

1

W

O

G

26 Sep

Torino

A

4

2

W

O

G


Verona in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Verona in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance as a guest.
Verona, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Sassuolo

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Milan

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Nov

Benevento

H

3

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Juventus

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Oct

Genoa

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Oct

Parma

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Sep

Udinese

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Sep

Roma

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atalanta and the red line for guest team, Verona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atalanta

28%

11%

46%

16%

Verona

46%

14%

31%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atalanta to score 2.67 goals and Verona to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.37 goals in the game and the home team Atalanta to win by 1.96 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atalanta to score 1.49 goals and Verona to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Atalanta to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.75

0-1

4.57

1

11.11

2-3

1.97

2

3.18

4+

3.66

3

5.15

Ov 1.5

1.28

4

5.78

Un 1.5

4.57

5

11.49

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.58

Ov 3.5

3.66

NoG

1.63

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.38

1.70

5.48

2-3 goals

1.46

33.87

3.53

4+ goals

3.85

1.76

5.81

Ov 1.5

1.86

4.59

4.09

Un 1.5

4.38

1.70

5.48

Ov 2.5

2.25

3.01

4.49

Un 2.5

2.03

3.70

4.20

Ov 3.5

3.85

1.76

5.81

Un 3.5

1.82

5.05

3.95

Goal-Goal

2.85

2.28

4.78

No Goal

1.84

4.75

4.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.74

2.40

4.59

NG+Un 2.5

1.98

4.75

4.08


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Napoli vs Roma at 29 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Napoli and Roma for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 29 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Napoli

2.17

2.55

-6.9

Draw

3.69

3.82

-0.9

Roma

3.27

2.89

4.0

Over 2.5

1.59

1.95

-11.6

Under 2.5

2.39

2.06

6.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Roma, Under 2.5 (4 %, 6.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Napoli in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Napoli in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance at home.
Napoli, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Milan

H

1

3

L

O

G

08 Nov

Bologna

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Sassuolo

H

0

2

L

U

N

25 Oct

Benevento

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Atalanta

H

4

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Juventus

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Sep

Genoa

H

6

0

W

O

N

20 Sep

Parma

A

2

0

W

U

N


Roma in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Roma in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Roma’s performance as a guest.
Roma, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Roma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Parma

H

3

0

W

O

N

08 Nov

Genoa

A

3

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Fiorentina

H

2

0

W

U

N

26 Oct

Milan

A

3

3

D

O

G

18 Oct

Benevento

H

5

2

W

O

G

03 Oct

Udinese

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Juventus

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Sep

Verona

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Napoli and the red line for guest team, Roma.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Napoli

29%

24%

32%

15%

Roma

31%

28%

25%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Napoli to score 1.72 goals and Roma to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and the home team Napoli to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Napoli to score 1.33 goals and Roma to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

4.08

1

6.41

2-3

2.07

2

4.15

4+

3.70

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.25

Un 1.5

4.08

5

11.49

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

3.70