# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Sassuolo vs Inter at 28 November 2020**** Benevento vs Juventus at 28 November 2020**** Atalanta vs Verona at 28 November 2020**** Napoli vs Roma at 29 November 2020**** Bologna vs Crotone at 29 November 2020**** Cagliari vs Spezia at 29 November 2020**** Lazio vs Udinese at 29 November 2020**** Milan vs Fiorentina at 29 November 2020**** Torino vs Sampdoria at 30 November 2020**** Genoa vs Parma at 30 November 2020**

###
Sassuolo vs Inter at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sassuolo** and **Inter** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sassuolo |
4.48 |
3.24 |
8.5 |

Draw |
4.06 |
3.29 |
5.8 |

Inter |
1.75 |
2.58 |
-18.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.44 |
2.47 |
-29.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.73 |
1.68 |
22.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sassuolo, Draw, Under 2.5 (8.5 %, 5.8 %, 22.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sassuolo** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sassuolo** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance** at home**.

Sassuolo,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Nov |
Verona |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Nov |
Udinese |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Napoli |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Oct |
Torino |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Bologna |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Crotone |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Sep |
Spezia |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Sep |
Cagliari |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Inter** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Inter** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Inter** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Inter** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance** as a guest**.

Inter,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Inter** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Nov |
Torino |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Atalanta |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Parma |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Genoa |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Milan |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Lazio |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Sep |
Benevento |
A |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Fiorentina |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sassuolo** and the red line for guest team, **Inter. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sassuolo |
40% |
25% |
29% |
6% |

Inter |
44% |
7% |
35% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sassuolo** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Inter** to score **2.19 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.28** goals in the game and the guest team **Inter ** to win by **1.1** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sassuolo** to score **1.02 ** goals and **Inter** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
5.71 |
0-1 |
3.23 |

1 |
7.41 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
3.50 |
4+ |
4.65 |

3 |
5.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.23 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.47 |

6+ |
111.11 |
Un 2.5 |
1.68 |

Gg |
2.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.65 |

NoG |
1.51 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.87 |
1.77 |
11.48 |

2-3 goals |
2.70 |
28.00 |
1.68 |

4+ goals |
8.60 |
1.90 |
2.79 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.44 |
5.32 |
1.92 |

Un 1.5 |
2.87 |
1.77 |
11.48 |

Ov 2.5 |
5.62 |
3.58 |
1.84 |

Un 2.5 |
2.51 |
3.10 |
3.57 |

Ov 3.5 |
8.60 |
1.90 |
2.79 |

Un 3.5 |
2.77 |
4.09 |
2.54 |

Goal-Goal |
7.51 |
2.60 |
2.07 |

No Goal |
2.51 |
3.79 |
2.96 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
7.13 |
2.84 |
1.97 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
3.79 |
3.47 |

####
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###
Benevento vs Juventus at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Benevento** and **Juventus** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Benevento |
8.95 |
3.50 |
17.4 |

Draw |
5.62 |
3.48 |
10.9 |

Juventus |
1.33 |
2.34 |
-32.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.45 |
2.11 |
-21.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.73 |
1.90 |
16.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Benevento, Draw, Under 2.5 (17.4 %, 10.9 %, 16 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Benevento** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Benevento scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Benevento** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Benevento scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance** at home**.

Benevento,** at home**, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Benevento scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Nov |
Fiorentina |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Spezia |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Nov |
Verona |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Napoli |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Roma |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Bologna |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Sep |
Inter |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Sampdoria |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Juventus** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Juventus** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance** as a guest**.

Juventus,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Nov |
Cagliari |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Lazio |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Nov |
Spezia |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Verona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Crotone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
Napoli |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Sep |
Roma |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Sep |
Sampdoria |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Benevento** and the red line for guest team, **Juventus. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Benevento |
41% |
14% |
40% |
5% |

Juventus |
32% |
18% |
30% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Benevento** to score **0.63 ** goals and **Juventus** to score **2.64 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.27** goals in the game and the guest team **Juventus ** to win by **2.01** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Benevento** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Juventus** to score **1.38 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.58 |
0-1 |
4.03 |

1 |
8.62 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
3.62 |
4+ |
3.82 |

3 |
4.74 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |

5 |
10.42 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |

Gg |
2.51 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.82 |

NoG |
1.67 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
5.77 |
1.88 |
3.40 |

2-3 goals |
2.23 |
20.29 |
1.99 |

4+ goals |
10.92 |
2.02 |
2.43 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.10 |
4.86 |
2.12 |

Un 1.5 |
5.77 |
1.88 |
3.40 |

Ov 2.5 |
4.22 |
3.64 |
2.05 |

Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
3.36 |
2.69 |

Ov 3.5 |
10.92 |
2.02 |
2.43 |

Un 3.5 |
2.82 |
4.71 |
2.31 |

Goal-Goal |
4.15 |
2.58 |
2.69 |

No Goal |
3.17 |
4.54 |
2.15 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.90 |
2.88 |
2.53 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.89 |
4.54 |
2.56 |

####
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###
Atalanta vs Verona at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Atalanta** and **Verona** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **28 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Atalanta |
1.37 |
2.12 |
-25.8 |

Draw |
5.42 |
3.33 |
11.6 |

Verona |
7.98 |
4.35 |
10.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.41 |
2.14 |
-24.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.88 |
1.88 |
18.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Verona, Under 2.5 (11.6 %, 10.5 %, 18.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Atalanta** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Atalanta** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance** at home**.

Atalanta,** at home**, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Nov |
Spezia |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Inter |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Crotone |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Sampdoria |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Napoli |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Cagliari |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Sep |
Lazio |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Torino |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Verona** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Verona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Verona** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Verona scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance** as a guest**.

Verona,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Verona scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Nov |
Sassuolo |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Milan |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Benevento |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Juventus |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Oct |
Genoa |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Parma |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Udinese |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Sep |
Roma |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Atalanta** and the red line for guest team, **Verona. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Atalanta |
28% |
11% |
46% |
16% |

Verona |
46% |
14% |
31% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Atalanta** to score **2.67 ** goals and **Verona** to score **0.71 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.37** goals in the game and the home team **Atalanta ** to win by **1.96** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Atalanta** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Verona** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Atalanta ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.75 |
0-1 |
4.57 |

1 |
11.11 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.18 |
4+ |
3.66 |

3 |
5.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |

4 |
5.78 |
Un 1.5 |
4.57 |

5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
2.58 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.66 |

NoG |
1.63 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.38 |
1.70 |
5.48 |

2-3 goals |
1.46 |
33.87 |
3.53 |

4+ goals |
3.85 |
1.76 |
5.81 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.86 |
4.59 |
4.09 |

Un 1.5 |
4.38 |
1.70 |
5.48 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
3.01 |
4.49 |

Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
3.70 |
4.20 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |
1.76 |
5.81 |

Un 3.5 |
1.82 |
5.05 |
3.95 |

Goal-Goal |
2.85 |
2.28 |
4.78 |

No Goal |
1.84 |
4.75 |
4.09 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.74 |
2.40 |
4.59 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.98 |
4.75 |
4.08 |

####
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###
Napoli vs Roma at 29 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Napoli** and **Roma** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **29 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Napoli |
2.17 |
2.55 |
-6.9 |

Draw |
3.69 |
3.82 |
-0.9 |

Roma |
3.27 |
2.89 |
4.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.95 |
-11.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.06 |
6.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Roma, Under 2.5 (4 %, 6.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Napoli** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Napoli** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance** at home**.

Napoli,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Nov |
Milan |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Bologna |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Sassuolo |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Benevento |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Atalanta |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Juventus |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Sep |
Genoa |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Sep |
Parma |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Roma** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Roma** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Roma** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Roma** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Roma’s performance** as a guest**.

Roma,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Roma scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Roma was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Nov |
Parma |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Nov |
Genoa |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Fiorentina |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Oct |
Milan |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Benevento |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Udinese |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Juventus |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Sep |
Verona |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Napoli** and the red line for guest team, **Roma. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Napoli |
29% |
24% |
32% |
15% |

Roma |
31% |
28% |
25% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Napoli** to score **1.72 ** goals and **Roma** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.99** goals in the game and the home team **Napoli ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Napoli** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Roma** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.24 |
0-1 |
4.08 |

1 |
6.41 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.70 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
4.08 |

5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.70 |