2020 11 27 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Chievo vs Lecce at 27 November 2020
Venezia vs Ascoli at 28 November 2020
Pisa vs Cittadella at 28 November 2020
Pescara vs Pordenone at 28 November 2020
Monza vs Reggina at 28 November 2020
Brescia vs Frosinone at 28 November 2020
Empoli vs Vicenza at 28 November 2020
Reggiana vs Cremonese at 29 November 2020
Cosenza vs Salernitana at 29 November 2020
Virtus Entella vs Spal at 30 November 2020


Chievo vs Lecce at 27 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Chievo and Lecce for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 27 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chievo

2.71

2.33

6.0

Draw

3.08

3.66

-5.1

Lecce

2.69

3.37

-7.5

Over 2.5

1.91

2.20

-6.9

Under 2.5

1.90

1.83

2.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Chievo, Under 2.5 (6 %, 2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chievo in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chievo in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance at home.
Chievo, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Chievo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Pordenone

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Cosenza

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Monza

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Brescia

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Reggiana

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Salernitana

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Sep

Pescara

A

0

0

D

U

N


Lecce in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lecce in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance as a guest.
Lecce, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Lecce was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Reggiana

H

7

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Virtus Entella

A

5

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Pescara

H

3

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Oct

Cremonese

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Oct

Brescia

A

0

3

L

O

N

03 Oct

Ascoli

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Sep

Pordenone

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chievo and the red line for guest team, Lecce.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chievo

23%

37%

24%

15%

Lecce

35%

34%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chievo to score 1.26 goals and Lecce to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chievo to score 1.31 goals and Lecce to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.46

1

4.78

2-3

2.03

2

3.89

4+

4.59

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.46

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.59

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.22

3.61

3.66

2-3 goals

2.25

3.88

3.35

4+ goals

2.69

3.30

3.07

Ov 1.5

2.37

3.68

3.26

Un 1.5

2.22

3.61

3.66

Ov 2.5

2.10

6.88

2.64

Un 2.5

2.55

2.64

4.37

Ov 3.5

2.69

3.30

3.07

Un 3.5

2.24

3.78

3.46

Goal-Goal

3.07

2.61

3.45

No Goal

1.87

6.21

3.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

5.70

2.58

NG+Un 2.5

1.96

6.21

3.35


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Venezia vs Ascoli at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Venezia and Ascoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Venezia

1.76

1.90

-4.2

Draw

3.43

3.68

-2.0

Ascoli

4.94

4.93

0.0

Over 2.5

2.14

2.40

-5.1

Under 2.5

1.73

1.72

0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Venezia in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance at home.
Venezia, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Brescia

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Nov

Virtus Entella

A

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Reggiana

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Empoli

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Pescara

H

4

0

W

O

N

17 Oct

Cremonese

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Oct

Frosinone

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Sep

Vicenza

H

1

0

W

U

N


Ascoli in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ascoli in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance as a guest.
Ascoli, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 1 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Virtus Entella

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Pordenone

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Salernitana

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Oct

Reggiana

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Frosinone

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Oct

Lecce

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Sep

Brescia

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Venezia and the red line for guest team, Ascoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Venezia

18%

44%

14%

23%

Ascoli

43%

36%

15%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.57 goals and Ascoli to score 0.76 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Venezia to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.43 goals and Ascoli to score 0.83 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Venezia to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

2.99

1

3.91

2-3

2.10

2

4.05

4+

5.35

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.51

4

7.69

Un 1.5

2.99

5

22.73

Ov 2.5

2.40

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

5.35

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.75

4.24

5.15

2-3 goals

2.22

3.03

4.53

4+ goals

1.57

5.34

5.67

Ov 1.5

1.99

3.45

4.80

Un 1.5

1.75

4.24

5.15

Ov 2.5

1.54

11.89

3.78

Un 2.5

2.30

2.47

6.26

Ov 3.5

1.57

5.34

5.67

Un 3.5

2.00

3.44

4.77

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.41

4.62

No Goal

1.51

6.78

5.20

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.79

8.71

3.05

NG+Un 2.5

1.68

6.78

4.57


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Pisa vs Cittadella at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Pisa and Cittadella for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pisa

2.68

2.41

4.2

Draw

2.96

3.92

-8.3

Cittadella

2.79

3.03

-2.8

Over 2.5

1.98

1.95

0.8

Under 2.5

1.84

2.05

-5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pisa, Over 2.5 (4.2 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pisa in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Pisa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance at home.
Pisa, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 2 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 7 results of Pisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Reggina

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Vicenza

A

4

4

D

O

G

23 Oct

Empoli

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Oct

Monza

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Salernitana

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Oct

Cremonese

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Sep

Reggiana

A

2

2

D

O

G


Cittadella in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cittadella in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance as a guest.
Cittadella, as a guest, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Cittadella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Empoli

H

2

2

D

O

G

08 Nov

Pescara

A

1

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Monza

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Oct

Pordenone

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Brescia

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Sep

Cremonese

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pisa and the red line for guest team, Cittadella.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pisa

27%

23%

40%

11%

Cittadella

28%

38%

20%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pisa to score 1.25 goals and Cittadella to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pisa to score 1.35 goals and Cittadella to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

4.18

1

6.06

2-3

1.94

2

4.00

4+

4.05

3

3.77

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.54

Un 1.5

4.18

5

12.66

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.79

3.23

2.34

2-3 goals

1.77

5.92

3.76

4+ goals

4.05

2.60

2.71

Ov 1.5

2.16

4.19

3.34

Un 1.5

3.79

3.23

2.34

Ov 2.5

2.12

5.39

2.93

Un 2.5

2.83

3.04

3.15

Ov 3.5

4.05

2.60

2.71

Un 3.5

2.13

4.68

3.15

Goal-Goal

2.49

2.92

3.90

No Goal

2.33

6.35

2.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.08

4.67

3.26

NG+Un 2.5

2.32

6.35

2.59


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Pescara vs Pordenone at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Pescara and Pordenone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pescara

3.13

2.58

6.8

Draw

2.91

3.48

-5.6

Pordenone

2.49

3.07

-7.6

Over 2.5

2.27

2.26

0.2

Under 2.5

1.64

1.80

-5.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pescara, Over 2.5 (6.8 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pescara in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance at home.
Pescara, at home, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Spal

A

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Cittadella

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Lecce

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Frosinone

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Oct

Venezia

A

0

4

L

O

N

17 Oct

Empoli

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Reggina

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Sep

Chievo

H

0

0

D

U

N


Pordenone in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance as a guest.
Pordenone, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Monza

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Chievo

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Ascoli

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Reggina

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Oct

Cittadella

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Oct

Spal

H

3

3

D

O

G

03 Oct

Vicenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Sep

Lecce

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pescara and the red line for guest team, Pordenone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pescara

27%

35%

28%

10%

Pordenone

27%

43%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pescara to score 1.03 goals and Pordenone to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pescara to score 1.23 goals and Pordenone to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.57

1

4.81

2-3

1.91

2

3.61

4+

5.05

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

7.30

Un 1.5

3.57

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

5.05

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.01

3.89

2.43

2-3 goals

2.30

3.49

3.58

4+ goals

3.00

3.00

3.00

Ov 1.5

2.46

3.34

3.40

Un 1.5

3.01

3.89

2.43

Ov 2.5

2.05

6.73

2.76

Un 2.5

3.30

2.51

3.36

Ov 3.5

3.00

3.00

3.00

Un 3.5