2020 11 27 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Aris vs Olympiakos at 28 November 2020
Larisa vs Atromitos at 28 November 2020
Asteras Tripolis vs AEK at 29 November 2020
Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos at 29 November 2020
OFI Crete vs Giannina at 29 November 2020
Lamia vs PAOK at 29 November 2020
Apollon vs Volos NFC at 30 November 2020


Aris vs Olympiakos at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and Olympiakos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aris

5.37

2.24

26.0

Draw

3.77

3.38

3.1

Olympiakos

1.60

3.89

-36.8

Over 2.5

1.80

2.87

-20.7

Under 2.5

1.99

1.53

15.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aris, Draw, Under 2.5 (26 %, 3.1 %, 15.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aris in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aris in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance at home.
Aris, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Aris was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Panetolikos

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Apollon

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Oct

Panathinaikos

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Giannina

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Sep

Volos NFC

A

1

0

W

U

N

11 Sep

Lamia

H

3

1

W

O

G


Olympiakos in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Olympiakos in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Olympiakos’s performance as a guest.
Olympiakos, as a guest, had one win, one draw, no defeats and gathered 4 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Olympiakos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

OFI Crete

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Apollon

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Atromitos

H

4

0

W

O

N

04 Oct

Giannina

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Sep

Panetolikos

H

2

0

W

U

N

18 Sep

Asteras Tripolis

H

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aris and the red line for guest team, Olympiakos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aris

34%

30%

22%

14%

Olympiakos

48%

33%

8%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aris to score 0.78 goals and Olympiakos to score 1.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the guest team Olympiakos to win by 1.08 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aris to score 1.16 goals and Olympiakos to score 0.81 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.97 goals in the game and the home team Aris to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.06

0-1

2.37

1

3.89

2-3

2.32

2

4.35

4+

6.76

3

4.98

Ov 1.5

1.73

4

10.31

Un 1.5

2.37

5

28.57

Ov 2.5

2.87

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.53

Gg

2.92

Ov 3.5

6.76

NoG

1.52

Un 3.5

1.17

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.95

2.56

3.70

2-3 goals

1.75

4.35

5.01

4+ goals

2.51

4.62

2.60

Ov 1.5

1.90

4.42

4.05

Un 1.5

2.95

2.56

3.70

Ov 2.5

1.75

10.91

2.98

Un 2.5

2.63

2.47

4.66

Ov 3.5

2.51

4.62

2.60

Un 3.5

2.19

3.23

4.27

Goal-Goal

2.59

2.61

4.33

No Goal

2.09

3.99

3.70

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.84

7.59

3.08

NG+Un 2.5

2.23

3.99

3.95


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Larisa vs Atromitos at 28 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Larisa and Atromitos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 28 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Larisa

2.83

3.42

-6.1

Draw

3.10

3.13

-0.3

Atromitos

2.52

2.58

-0.9

Over 2.5

2.42

3.62

-13.7

Under 2.5

1.57

1.38

8.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (8.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Larisa in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance at home.
Larisa, at home, had no wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 1 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 7 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

AEK

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Nov

Giannina

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Volos NFC

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Asteras Tripolis

H

1

3

L

O

G

04 Oct

Apollon

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Sep

Panathinaikos

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Sep

PAOK

A

0

1

L

U

N


Atromitos in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance as a guest.
Atromitos, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Atromitos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Apollon

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Nov

Panathinaikos

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Giannina

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Oct

Panetolikos

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Olympiakos

A

0

4

L

O

N

04 Oct

AEK

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

OFI Crete

A

2

2

D

O

G

18 Sep

PAOK

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Larisa and the red line for guest team, Atromitos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Larisa

48%

31%

12%

9%

Atromitos

38%

33%

23%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Larisa to score 1.02 goals and Atromitos to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Larisa to score 0.83 goals and Atromitos to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.78 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.49

0-1

2.17

1

3.58

2-3

2.30

2

3.80

4+

9.62

3

5.81

Ov 1.5

1.86

4

13.70

Un 1.5

2.17

5

37.04

Ov 2.5

3.62

6+

250.00

Un 2.5

1.38

Gg

3.10

Ov 3.5

9.62

NoG

1.48

Un 3.5

1.12

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.84

2.53

2.90

2-3 goals

3.60

4.14

2.08

4+ goals

2.04

3.25

4.95

Ov 1.5

3.13

3.93

2.34

Un 1.5

3.84

2.53

2.90

Ov 2.5

2.19

8.63

2.34

Un 2.5

4.36

2.52

2.67

Ov 3.5

2.04

3.25

4.95

Un 3.5

3.72

3.12

2.43

Goal-Goal

3.55

2.36

3.40

No Goal

3.37

3.72

2.30

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.40

6.81

2.29

NG+Un 2.5

3.73

3.72

2.28


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Asteras Tripolis vs AEK at 29 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Asteras Tripolis and AEK for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 29 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Asteras Tripolis

3.75

2.22

18.4

Draw

3.28

3.62

-2.9

AEK

1.98

3.65

-23.1

Over 2.5

2.26

2.84

-9.0

Under 2.5

1.63

1.54

3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Asteras Tripolis, Under 2.5 (18.4 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance at home.
Asteras Tripolis, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Nov

Apollon

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Lamia

A

2

2

D

O

G

01 Nov

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Oct

OFI Crete

H

1

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

Larisa

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Panetolikos

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Sep

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Sep

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N


AEK in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AEK in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AEK’s performance as a guest.
AEK, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of AEK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Larisa

H

4

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

OFI Crete

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Giannina

A

1

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

PAOK

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Atromitos

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Sep

Lamia

H

3

0

W

O

N

19 Sep

Panetolikos

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Asteras Tripolis and the red line for guest team, AEK.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Asteras Tripolis

40%

17%

33%

10%

AEK

50%

34%

1%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 0.87 goals and AEK to score 1.36 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the guest team AEK to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.14 goals and AEK to score 0.8 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.94 goals in the game and the home team Asteras Tripolis to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.00

0-1

2.38

1

4.55

2-3

2.21

2

4.39

4+

7.75

3

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.72

4

15.62

Un 1.5

2.38

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.83

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.54

Gg

3.33

Ov 3.5

7.75

NoG

1.43

Un 3.5

1.15

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.94

2.10

3.11

2-3 goals

1.37

7.93

6.85

4+ goals

3.58

6.79

1.74

Ov 1.5

1.59

7.64

4.15

Un 1.5

4.94

2.10

3.11

Ov 2.5

1.77

18.58

2.61

Un 2.5

2.58

2.52

4.63

Ov 3.5

3.58

6.79

1.74

Un 3.5

2.11

3.39

4.34

Goal-Goal

2.03

3.95

3.95

No Goal

2.32

3.50

3.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.64

12.79

3.20

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

3.50

4.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos at 29 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Panetolikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 29 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Panathinaikos

1.36

2.03

-24.3

Draw

4.45

3.58

5.5

Panetolikos

8.84

4.37

11.6

Over 2.5

2.14

2.19

-1.1

Under 2.5

1.71

1.84

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Panetolikos (5.5 %, 11.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Panathinaikos in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panathinaikos in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance at home.
Panathinaikos, at home, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Olympiakos

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Atromitos

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Apollon

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Lamia

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Volos NFC

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

OFI Crete

A

2

2

D

O

G

04 Oct

Aris

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Sep

Larisa

A

1

1

D

U

G


Panetolikos in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panetolikos in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance as a guest.
Panetolikos, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Nov

Aris

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Giannina

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Nov

PAOK

H

1

3

L

O

G

26 Oct

Atromitos

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Oct

Lamia

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Oct

Asteras Tripolis

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Sep

Olympiakos

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Sep

AEK

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Panathinaikos and the red line for guest team, Panetolikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Panathinaikos

37%

15%

18%

30%

Panetolikos

50%

34%

4%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.83 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Panathinaikos to win by 1.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.41 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.77 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the home team Panathinaikos to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.35

0-1

2.58

1

5.00

2-3

2.39

2

6.37

4+

5.15

3

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.63

4

7.87

Un 1.5

2.58

5

30.30

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

29.41

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

3.21

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

1.46

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.23

2.07

3.07

2-3 goals

1.38

8.36

6.33

4+ goals

1.69

4.62

5.24

Ov 1.5

1.47

6.65

5.94

Un 1.5

5.23

2.07

3.07

Ov 2.5

1.39

10.83

5.29

Un 2.5

3.32

2.30

3.80

Ov 3.5

1.69

4.62

5.24

Un 3.5

2.14