# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** QPR vs Bristol City at 01 December 2020**** Birmingham vs Barnsley at 01 December 2020**** Rotherham vs Brentford at 01 December 2020**** Derby vs Coventry at 01 December 2020**** Cardiff vs Huddersfield at 01 December 2020**** Bournemouth vs Preston at 01 December 2020**** Wycombe vs Stoke at 02 December 2020**

<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’>** Nott’m Forest vs Watford at 02 December 2020**** Middlesbrough vs Swansea at 02 December 2020**** Luton vs Norwich at 02 December 2020**** Blackburn vs Millwall at 02 December 2020**** Sheffield Weds vs Reading at 02 December 2020**

###
QPR vs Bristol City at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **QPR** and **Bristol City** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **01 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

QPR |
2.32 |
2.54 |
-3.7 |

Draw |
3.42 |
3.58 |
-1.3 |

Bristol City |
3.08 |
3.06 |
0.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.20 |
-6.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.83 |
2.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bristol City, Under 2.5 (0.2 %, 2.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**QPR** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **QPR** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance** at home**.

QPR,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Nov |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Rotherham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Watford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Nov |
Derby |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Cardiff |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Barnsley |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Bristol City** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bristol City** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance** as a guest**.

Bristol City,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Reading |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Watford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Derby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Nov |
Cardiff |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Huddersfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Oct |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **QPR** and the red line for guest team, **Bristol City. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

QPR |
26% |
37% |
21% |
16% |

Bristol City |
31% |
37% |
20% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **QPR** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Bristol City** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **QPR** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Bristol City** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.44 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.50 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.44 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.58 |
3.59 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
2.56 |
3.58 |
3.02 |

4+ goals |
2.44 |
3.58 |
3.22 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.58 |
3.08 |

Un 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.59 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
7.34 |
2.59 |

Un 2.5 |
3.08 |
2.51 |
3.61 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.58 |
3.22 |

Un 3.5 |
2.57 |
3.59 |
3.02 |

Goal-Goal |
3.04 |
2.58 |
3.54 |

No Goal |
2.17 |
6.05 |
2.68 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
6.03 |
2.60 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
6.05 |
2.71 |

####
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###
Birmingham vs Barnsley at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Birmingham** and **Barnsley** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **01 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Birmingham |
2.64 |
2.16 |
8.4 |

Draw |
3.15 |
3.68 |
-4.6 |

Barnsley |
2.83 |
3.79 |
-9.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.21 |
3.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.83 |
-8.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Birmingham, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 3.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Birmingham** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Birmingham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance** at home**.

Birmingham,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Luton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Nov |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Nov |
Wycombe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Preston |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Oct |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
QPR |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Barnsley** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnsley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barnsley** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnsley scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance** as a guest**.

Barnsley,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnsley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Brentford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Derby |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Cardiff |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Watford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
QPR |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Birmingham** and the red line for guest team, **Barnsley. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Birmingham |
25% |
33% |
22% |
20% |

Barnsley |
35% |
41% |
12% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Birmingham** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Barnsley** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Birmingham** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Barnsley** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Birmingham ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.29 |

1 |
4.61 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.29 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.62 |
3.49 |
3.01 |

2-3 goals |
1.97 |
3.54 |
4.74 |

4+ goals |
2.05 |
4.33 |
3.56 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.00 |
3.76 |
4.29 |

Un 1.5 |
2.62 |
3.49 |
3.01 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
8.86 |
3.45 |

Un 2.5 |
2.82 |
2.48 |
4.14 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.05 |
4.33 |
3.56 |

Un 3.5 |
2.19 |
3.52 |
3.87 |

Goal-Goal |
2.45 |
2.63 |
4.73 |

No Goal |
1.93 |
5.89 |
3.20 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
6.92 |
3.43 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
5.89 |
3.13 |

####
Go to Top

###
Rotherham vs Brentford at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rotherham** and **Brentford** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **01 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rotherham |
4.52 |
2.80 |
13.6 |

Draw |
3.70 |
3.61 |
0.7 |

Brentford |
1.79 |
2.73 |
-19.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
2.25 |
-7.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.80 |
3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rotherham, Draw, Under 2.5 (13.6 %, 0.7 %, 3.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rotherham** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rotherham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance** at home**.

Rotherham,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Bournemouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
QPR |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Preston |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Nov |
Luton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Oct |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Reading |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Brentford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brentford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance** as a guest**.

Brentford,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Nov |
QPR |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Middlesbrough |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Luton |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Oct |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Stoke |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rotherham** and the red line for guest team, **Brentford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rotherham |
32% |
36% |
16% |
16% |

Brentford |
31% |
34% |
20% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rotherham** to score **0.86 ** goals and **Brentford** to score **1.68 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the guest team **Brentford ** to win by **0.82** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rotherham** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Brentford** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.10 |
0-1 |
3.15 |

1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
2.16 |

2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
4.44 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.15 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.14 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.83 |
3.20 |
2.99 |

2-3 goals |
2.92 |
3.85 |
2.51 |

4+ goals |
2.53 |
3.86 |
2.89 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.78 |
3.85 |
2.62 |

Un 1.5 |
2.83 |
3.20 |
2.99 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
7.81 |
2.28 |

Un 2.5 |
3.38 |
2.53 |
3.24 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.86 |
2.89 |

Un 3.5 |
2.89 |
3.56 |
2.69 |

Goal-Goal |
3.30 |
2.64 |
3.14 |

No Goal |
2.47 |
5.36 |
2.45 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |
6.11 |
2.34 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.65 |
5.36 |
2.54 |

####
Go to Top

###
Derby vs Coventry at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Derby** and **Coventry** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **01 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Derby |
2.26 |
2.70 |
-7.2 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.57 |
-2.4 |

Coventry |
3.28 |
2.87 |
4.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.21 |
2.27 |
-1.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.79 |
-3.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Coventry (4.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Derby** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Derby** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance** at home**.

Derby,** at home**, had no wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 9.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Wycombe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Nov |
Middlesbrough |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Bristol City |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Barnsley |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Nov |
QPR |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Bournemouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Oct |
Cardiff |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Oct |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Coventry** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Coventry** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance** as a guest**.

Coventry,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 9.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Nov |
Cardiff |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Nov |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Watford |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Nov |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Oct |
Reading |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Middlesbrough |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Blackburn |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Derby** and the red line for guest team, **Coventry. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Derby |
30% |
38% |
16% |
17% |

Coventry |
32% |
35% |
20% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Derby** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Coventry** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Derby** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Coventry** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.64 |
0-1 |
3.14 |

1 |
4.46 |
2-3 |
2.16 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
4.59 |

3 |
4.48 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.14 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
2.08 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.59 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.65 |
3.38 |
3.06 |