2020 12 01 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

QPR vs Bristol City at 01 December 2020
Birmingham vs Barnsley at 01 December 2020
Rotherham vs Brentford at 01 December 2020
Derby vs Coventry at 01 December 2020
Cardiff vs Huddersfield at 01 December 2020
Bournemouth vs Preston at 01 December 2020
Wycombe vs Stoke at 02 December 2020
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Watford at 02 December 2020
Middlesbrough vs Swansea at 02 December 2020
Luton vs Norwich at 02 December 2020
Blackburn vs Millwall at 02 December 2020
Sheffield Weds vs Reading at 02 December 2020


QPR vs Bristol City at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between QPR and Bristol City for Championship (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

QPR

2.32

2.54

-3.7

Draw

3.42

3.58

-1.3

Bristol City

3.08

3.06

0.2

Over 2.5

1.94

2.20

-6.1

Under 2.5

1.91

1.83

2.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol City, Under 2.5 (0.2 %, 2.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

QPR in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, QPR in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance at home.
QPR, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Brentford

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Rotherham

H

3

2

W

O

G

21 Nov

Watford

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Blackburn

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Nov

Derby

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Cardiff

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Oct

Barnsley

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Oct

Birmingham

H

0

0

D

U

N


Bristol City in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol City in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance as a guest.
Bristol City, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Reading

A

1

3

L

O

G

25 Nov

Watford

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Derby

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Nov

Cardiff

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Huddersfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Norwich

H

1

3

L

O

G

28 Oct

Bournemouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Swansea

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, QPR and the red line for guest team, Bristol City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

QPR

26%

37%

21%

16%

Bristol City

31%

37%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) QPR to score 1.39 goals and Bristol City to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) QPR to score 1.26 goals and Bristol City to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.44

1

4.76

2-3

2.05

2

3.94

4+

4.50

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.44

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.58

3.59

3.00

2-3 goals

2.56

3.58

3.02

4+ goals

2.44

3.58

3.22

Ov 1.5

2.52

3.58

3.08

Un 1.5

2.58

3.59

3.00

Ov 2.5

2.10

7.34

2.59

Un 2.5

3.08

2.51

3.61

Ov 3.5

2.44

3.58

3.22

Un 3.5

2.57

3.59

3.02

Goal-Goal

3.04

2.58

3.54

No Goal

2.17

6.05

2.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

6.03

2.60

NG+Un 2.5

2.31

6.05

2.71


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Birmingham vs Barnsley at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Birmingham and Barnsley for Championship (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Birmingham

2.64

2.16

8.4

Draw

3.15

3.68

-4.6

Barnsley

2.83

3.79

-9.0

Over 2.5

2.38

2.21

3.2

Under 2.5

1.59

1.83

-8.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Birmingham, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Birmingham in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Birmingham in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance at home.
Birmingham, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Millwall

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Nov

Luton

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Nov

Coventry

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Bournemouth

H

1

3

L

O

G

04 Nov

Wycombe

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Preston

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Oct

Huddersfield

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

QPR

A

0

0

D

U

N


Barnsley in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnsley in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance as a guest.
Barnsley, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Blackburn

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Brentford

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Nott’m Forest

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Derby

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Cardiff

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Oct

Watford

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

QPR

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Oct

Millwall

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Birmingham and the red line for guest team, Barnsley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Birmingham

25%

33%

22%

20%

Barnsley

35%

41%

12%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Birmingham to score 1.11 goals and Barnsley to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Birmingham to score 1.38 goals and Barnsley to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Birmingham to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.29

1

4.61

2-3

2.11

2

4.12

4+

4.52

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.29

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

3.49

3.01

2-3 goals

1.97

3.54

4.74

4+ goals

2.05

4.33

3.56

Ov 1.5

2.00

3.76

4.29

Un 1.5

2.62

3.49

3.01

Ov 2.5

1.67

8.86

3.45

Un 2.5

2.82

2.48

4.14

Ov 3.5

2.05

4.33

3.56

Un 3.5

2.19

3.52

3.87

Goal-Goal

2.45

2.63

4.73

No Goal

1.93

5.89

3.20

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.77

6.92

3.43

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

5.89

3.13


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Rotherham vs Brentford at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Rotherham and Brentford for Championship (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rotherham

4.52

2.80

13.6

Draw

3.70

3.61

0.7

Brentford

1.79

2.73

-19.2

Over 2.5

1.91

2.25

-7.9

Under 2.5

1.91

1.80

3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rotherham, Draw, Under 2.5 (13.6 %, 0.7 %, 3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rotherham in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance at home.
Rotherham, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Bournemouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

QPR

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Swansea

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Preston

H

2

1

W

O

G

04 Nov

Luton

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Stoke

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Oct

Sheffield Weds

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Oct

Reading

A

0

3

L

O

N


Brentford in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance as a guest.
Brentford, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

QPR

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Barnsley

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Wycombe

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Middlesbrough

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Nov

Swansea

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Luton

A

3

0

W

O

N

27 Oct

Norwich

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Stoke

A

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rotherham and the red line for guest team, Brentford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rotherham

32%

36%

16%

16%

Brentford

31%

34%

20%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rotherham to score 0.86 goals and Brentford to score 1.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the guest team Brentford to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.17 goals and Brentford to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.15

1

4.59

2-3

2.16

2

4.22

4+

4.55

3

4.44

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.15

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.14

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.83

3.20

2.99

2-3 goals

2.92

3.85

2.51

4+ goals

2.53

3.86

2.89

Ov 1.5

2.78

3.85

2.62

Un 1.5

2.83

3.20

2.99

Ov 2.5

2.31

7.81

2.28

Un 2.5

3.38

2.53

3.24

Ov 3.5

2.53

3.86

2.89

Un 3.5

2.89

3.56

2.69

Goal-Goal

3.30

2.64

3.14

No Goal

2.47

5.36

2.45

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.45

6.11

2.34

NG+Un 2.5

2.65

5.36

2.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Derby vs Coventry at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Derby and Coventry for Championship (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Derby

2.26

2.70

-7.2

Draw

3.29

3.57

-2.4

Coventry

3.28

2.87

4.4

Over 2.5

2.21

2.27

-1.2

Under 2.5

1.68

1.79

-3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Coventry (4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Derby in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance at home.
Derby, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 9.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Wycombe

H

1

1

D

U

G

25 Nov

Middlesbrough

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Nov

Bristol City

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Barnsley

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Nov

QPR

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Bournemouth

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Oct

Cardiff

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Oct

Nott’m Forest

A

1

1

D

U

G


Coventry in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Coventry in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance as a guest.
Coventry, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 9.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Norwich

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Nov

Cardiff

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Nov

Birmingham

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Watford

A

2

3

L

O

G

04 Nov

Nott’m Forest

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Oct

Reading

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Oct

Middlesbrough

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Blackburn

H

0

4

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Derby and the red line for guest team, Coventry.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Derby

30%

38%

16%

17%

Coventry

32%

35%

20%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Derby to score 1.29 goals and Coventry to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Derby to score 1.2 goals and Coventry to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.64

0-1

3.14

1

4.46

2-3

2.16

2

4.15

4+

4.59

3

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.14

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.08

Ov 3.5

4.59

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.38

3.06