2020 12 01 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Woking vs Sutton at 01 December 2020
Wrexham vs Altrincham at 01 December 2020
Wealdstone vs Torquay at 01 December 2020
Solihull vs Hartlepool at 01 December 2020
King’s Lynn vs Bromley at 01 December 2020
Chesterfield vs Aldershot at 01 December 2020
Maidenhead vs Dover Athletic at 01 December 2020
Yeovil vs Eastleigh at 01 December 2020
Halifax vs Barnet at 02 December 2020
Dag and Red vs Notts County at 02 December 2020


Woking vs Sutton at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Woking and Sutton for Conference (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Woking

2.89

2.18

11.3

Draw

3.17

3.86

-5.6

Sutton

2.33

3.55

-14.7

Over 2.5

1.98

1.99

-0.3

Under 2.5

1.79

2.01

-6.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Woking (11.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Woking in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance at home.
Woking, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 11 points, 73.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Barnet

H

4

1

W

O

G

17 Nov

Dover Athletic

A

5

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Yeovil

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

King’s Lynn

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Oct

Boreham Wood

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Halifax

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Oct

Dag and Red

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Oct

Chesterfield

A

0

4

L

O

N


Sutton in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance as a guest.
Sutton, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Halifax

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Wrexham

A

0

4

L

O

N

21 Nov

Wealdstone

A

3

3

D

O

G

17 Nov

Dag and Red

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

King’s Lynn

H

5

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Yeovil

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Oct

Notts County

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Oct

Weymouth

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Woking and the red line for guest team, Sutton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Woking

24%

29%

25%

22%

Sutton

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Woking to score 1.13 goals and Sutton to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Woking to score 1.44 goals and Sutton to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Woking to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.86

1

5.52

2-3

2.06

2

4.22

4+

3.89

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.86

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.76

3.32

2.98

2-3 goals

2.00

4.62

3.51

4+ goals

2.09

3.38

4.43

Ov 1.5

2.03

4.10

3.79

Un 1.5

2.76

3.32

2.98

Ov 2.5

1.78

6.64

3.48

Un 2.5

2.83

2.71

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.09

3.38

4.43

Un 3.5

2.21

4.07

3.31

Goal-Goal

2.40

2.84

4.32

No Goal

1.99

6.24

2.97

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

5.38

3.44

NG+Un 2.5

2.23

6.24

2.83


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wrexham vs Altrincham at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Altrincham for Conference (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wrexham

1.63

2.00

-11.3

Draw

3.74

3.94

-1.4

Altrincham

5.13

4.08

5.0

Over 2.5

2.09

1.94

3.7

Under 2.5

1.74

2.07

-9.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Altrincham, Over 2.5 (5 %, 3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wrexham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Bromley

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Sutton

H

4

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Aldershot

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Hartlepool

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Barnet

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Wealdstone

A

3

4

L

O

G

12 Oct

Maidenhead

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Oct

Yeovil

A

1

0

W

U

N


Altrincham in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance as a guest.
Altrincham, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Maidenhead

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Bromley

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Boreham Wood

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Chesterfield

H

3

2

W

O

G

14 Nov

Aldershot

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Nov

Solihull

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Wealdstone

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Dover Athletic

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Altrincham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wrexham

20%

31%

26%

24%

Altrincham

34%

36%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.64 goals and Altrincham to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.53 goals and Altrincham to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

4.10

1

5.65

2-3

2.02

2

4.15

4+

3.86

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.02

Un 1.5

4.10

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.86

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.30

3.64

3.44

2-3 goals

1.89

4.34

4.16

4+ goals

1.95

3.55

4.89

Ov 1.5

1.91

4.03

4.38

Un 1.5

2.30

3.64

3.44

Ov 2.5

1.67

7.03

3.86

Un 2.5

2.50

2.68

4.41

Ov 3.5

1.95

3.55

4.89

Un 3.5

2.01

4.08

3.89

Goal-Goal

2.33

2.83

4.60

No Goal

1.71

7.00

3.66

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.83

5.68

3.61

NG+Un 2.5

1.91

7.00

3.37


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Wealdstone vs Torquay at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wealdstone and Torquay for Conference (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wealdstone

4.47

2.94

11.6

Draw

4.10

3.69

2.7

Torquay

1.63

2.57

-22.4

Over 2.5

1.57

2.05

-14.9

Under 2.5

2.32

1.95

8.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wealdstone, Draw, Under 2.5 (11.6 %, 2.7 %, 8.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wealdstone in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance at home.
Wealdstone, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Notts County

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Nov

Sutton

H

3

3

D

O

G

17 Nov

Eastleigh

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Nov

Halifax

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Altrincham

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

King’s Lynn

A

3

2

W

O

G

20 Oct

Chesterfield

H

3

2

W

O

G

17 Oct

Wrexham

H

4

3

W

O

G


Torquay in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance as a guest.
Torquay, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 80.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

Halifax

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Boreham Wood

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Hartlepool

A

5

0

W

O

N

27 Oct

Aldershot

A

4

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Dover Athletic

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Oct

Chesterfield

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Oct

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Oct

Eastleigh

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wealdstone and the red line for guest team, Torquay.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wealdstone

28%

36%

22%

14%

Torquay

26%

34%

24%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 0.95 goals and Torquay to score 2.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.98 goals in the game and the guest team Torquay to win by 1.07 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.21 goals and Torquay to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.80

1

5.26

2-3

2.04

2

4.03

4+

4.08

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.80

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.08

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.80

3.60

2.74

2-3 goals

2.93

3.98

2.45

4+ goals

3.10

3.31

2.66

Ov 1.5

2.99

3.73

2.52

Un 1.5

2.80

3.60

2.74

Ov 2.5

2.58

6.58

2.17

Un 2.5

3.38

2.61

3.12

Ov 3.5

3.10

3.31

2.66

Un 3.5

2.89

3.84

2.54

Goal-Goal

3.44

2.69

2.96

No Goal

2.52

6.41

2.24

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.64

5.50

2.27

NG+Un 2.5

2.57

6.41

2.37


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Solihull vs Hartlepool at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Solihull and Hartlepool for Conference (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Solihull

2.32

1.86

10.7

Draw

3.27

4.13

-6.4

Hartlepool

2.85

4.57

-13.2

Over 2.5

1.97

1.94

0.8

Under 2.5

1.82

2.06

-6.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Solihull, Over 2.5 (10.7 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Solihull in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Solihull in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance at home.
Solihull, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 7 results of Solihull was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Nov

Altrincham

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Maidenhead

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Oct

Stockport

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Boreham Wood

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Oct

King’s Lynn

H

5

0

W

O

N

06 Oct

Wrexham

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Woking

A

1

2

L

O

G


Hartlepool in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance as a guest.
Hartlepool, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Barnet

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Yeovil

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Nov

Wrexham

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Torquay

H

0

5

L

O

N

27 Oct

Altrincham

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Oct

Bromley

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Oct

Maidenhead

A

4

0

W

O

N

06 Oct

Chesterfield

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Solihull and the red line for guest team, Hartlepool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Solihull

21%

26%

26%

27%

Hartlepool

37%

37%

18%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.32 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.59 goals and Hartlepool to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Solihull to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.97

1

5.75

2-3

2.03

2

4.29

4+

3.92

3

3.85

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.02

Un 1.5

3.97

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

3.23

3.23

2-3 goals

1.67

5.14

4.88

4+ goals

1.75

3.70

6.38

Ov 1.5