# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Blackpool vs Portsmouth at 01 December 2020**** Northampton vs Fleetwood Town at 01 December 2020**** Sunderland vs Burton at 01 December 2020**** Plymouth vs Rochdale at 01 December 2020**** Oxford vs Ipswich at 01 December 2020**** Lincoln vs Wigan at 01 December 2020**** Crewe vs Swindon at 01 December 2020**** Shrewsbury vs Accrington at 02 December 2020**** Hull vs Doncaster at 02 December 2020**** Bristol Rvs vs Gillingham at 02 December 2020**** AFC Wimbledon vs Peterboro at 02 December 2020**** Charlton vs Milton Keynes Dons at 02 December 2020**

###
Blackpool vs Portsmouth at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Blackpool** and **Portsmouth** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **01 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Blackpool |
2.85 |
2.74 |
1.4 |

Draw |
3.21 |
3.72 |
-4.3 |

Portsmouth |
2.53 |
2.73 |
-2.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.01 |
-0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.99 |
-4.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Blackpool (1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Blackpool** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackpool** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance** at home**.

Blackpool,** at home**, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Doncaster |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Peterboro |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Burton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Portsmouth** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portsmouth** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Portsmouth,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Crewe |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Nov |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Lincoln |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Northampton |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Sunderland |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Blackpool** and the red line for guest team, **Portsmouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Blackpool |
29% |
32% |
24% |
16% |

Portsmouth |
24% |
37% |
26% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Blackpool** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.28 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Blackpool** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.94 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.30 |
3.63 |
2.37 |

2-3 goals |
2.65 |
4.18 |
2.61 |

4+ goals |
2.47 |
3.15 |
3.60 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.76 |
2.88 |

Un 1.5 |
3.30 |
3.63 |
2.37 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
6.20 |
2.67 |

Un 2.5 |
3.73 |
2.68 |
2.79 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.47 |
3.15 |
3.60 |

Un 3.5 |
2.84 |
3.97 |
2.52 |

Goal-Goal |
2.83 |
2.72 |
3.59 |

No Goal |
2.63 |
6.59 |
2.13 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
5.25 |
2.80 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.85 |
6.59 |
2.14 |

####
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###
Northampton vs Fleetwood Town at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Northampton** and **Fleetwood Town** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **01 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Northampton |
3.72 |
3.05 |
5.9 |

Draw |
3.49 |
3.88 |
-2.9 |

Fleetwood Town |
2.00 |
2.41 |
-8.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
1.95 |
3.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
2.06 |
-8.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Northampton, Over 2.5 (5.9 %, 3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Northampton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Northampton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance** at home**.

Northampton,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Rochdale |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Burton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Wigan |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Fleetwood Town** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fleetwood Town** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance** as a guest**.

Fleetwood Town,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Nov |
Sunderland |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Plymouth |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Oxford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Northampton** and the red line for guest team, **Fleetwood Town. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Northampton |
33% |
28% |
23% |
16% |

Fleetwood Town |
21% |
38% |
25% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **0.93 ** goals and **Fleetwood Town** to score **1.45 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and the guest team **Fleetwood Town ** to win by **0.52** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Fleetwood Town** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.15** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
4.00 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
3.73 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.73 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.39 |
3.62 |
2.02 |

2-3 goals |
2.82 |
4.62 |
2.33 |

4+ goals |
2.68 |
3.15 |
3.23 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.77 |
3.96 |
2.59 |

Un 1.5 |
4.39 |
3.62 |
2.02 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
6.02 |
2.49 |

Un 2.5 |
4.58 |
2.81 |
2.35 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.68 |
3.15 |
3.23 |

Un 3.5 |
3.22 |
4.22 |
2.21 |

Goal-Goal |
2.81 |
2.80 |
3.48 |

No Goal |
3.37 |
6.80 |
1.80 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
5.00 |
2.80 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.60 |
6.80 |
1.85 |

####
Go to Top

###
Sunderland vs Burton at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sunderland** and **Burton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **01 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sunderland |
1.53 |
2.00 |
-15.4 |

Draw |
4.23 |
3.68 |
3.5 |

Burton |
5.88 |
4.39 |
5.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.31 |
-12.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.04 |
1.76 |
7.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Burton, Under 2.5 (3.5 %, 5.8 %, 7.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sunderland** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sunderland** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance** at home**.

Sunderland,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Nov |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Rochdale |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Burton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance** as a guest**.

Burton,** as a guest**, had no wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 14.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Charlton |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Northampton |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Shrewsbury |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Blackpool |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Peterboro |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Rochdale |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sunderland** and the red line for guest team, **Burton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sunderland |
17% |
42% |
24% |
17% |

Burton |
39% |
35% |
18% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.95 ** goals and **Burton** to score **0.73 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and the home team **Sunderland ** to win by **1.22** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Burton** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the home team **Sunderland ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.41 |

1 |
4.42 |
2-3 |
1.94 |

2 |
3.64 |
4+ |
5.21 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.52 |
Un 1.5 |
3.41 |

5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.21 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.77 |
4.37 |
4.88 |

2-3 goals |
2.09 |
3.46 |
4.29 |

4+ goals |
2.16 |
3.43 |
4.09 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.11 |
3.45 |
4.23 |

Un 1.5 |
1.77 |
4.37 |
4.88 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
7.71 |
3.18 |

Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.63 |
6.24 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.43 |
4.09 |

Un 3.5 |
1.96 |
3.74 |
4.49 |

Goal-Goal |
2.89 |
2.45 |
4.06 |

No Goal |
1.52 |
7.42 |
4.83 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
6.32 |
2.85 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.61 |
7.42 |
4.60 |

####
Go to Top

###
Plymouth vs Rochdale at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Plymouth** and **Rochdale** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **01 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Plymouth |
1.87 |
2.11 |
-6.1 |

Draw |
3.74 |
3.69 |
0.4 |

Rochdale |
3.90 |
3.92 |
-0.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.76 |
2.22 |
-11.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.08 |
1.82 |
6.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Under 2.5 (0.4 %, 6.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Plymouth** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Plymouth** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance** at home**.

Plymouth,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 17 points, 81.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Nov |
Portsmouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Swindon |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Doncaster |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Lincoln |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Rochdale** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rochdale** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance** as a guest**.

Rochdale,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Northampton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Oct |
Sunderland |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Shrewsbury |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Burton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Hull |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Plymouth** and the red line for guest team, **Rochdale. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Plymouth |
20% |
39% |
24% |
17% |

Rochdale |
37% |
35% |
19% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Plymouth** to score **1.71 ** goals and **Rochdale** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the home team **Plymouth ** to win by **0.71** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Plymouth** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Rochdale** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and the home team **Plymouth ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.51 |

1 |
4.72 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
4.74 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.51 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.74 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |