2020 12 01 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Blackpool vs Portsmouth at 01 December 2020
Northampton vs Fleetwood Town at 01 December 2020
Sunderland vs Burton at 01 December 2020
Plymouth vs Rochdale at 01 December 2020
Oxford vs Ipswich at 01 December 2020
Lincoln vs Wigan at 01 December 2020
Crewe vs Swindon at 01 December 2020
Shrewsbury vs Accrington at 02 December 2020
Hull vs Doncaster at 02 December 2020
Bristol Rvs vs Gillingham at 02 December 2020
AFC Wimbledon vs Peterboro at 02 December 2020
Charlton vs Milton Keynes Dons at 02 December 2020


Blackpool vs Portsmouth at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackpool and Portsmouth for League One (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackpool

2.85

2.74

1.4

Draw

3.21

3.72

-4.3

Portsmouth

2.53

2.73

-2.9

Over 2.5

1.98

2.01

-0.8

Under 2.5

1.84

1.99

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Blackpool (1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Blackpool in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackpool in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance at home.
Blackpool, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Doncaster

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Peterboro

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Wigan

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Burton

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

AFC Wimbledon

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Charlton

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Crewe

A

1

1

D

U

G


Portsmouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance as a guest.
Portsmouth, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Oxford

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Crewe

H

4

1

W

O

G

16 Nov

Plymouth

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Nov

Lincoln

A

3

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Charlton

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Oct

Northampton

H

4

0

W

O

N

24 Oct

Sunderland

A

3

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Gillingham

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Blackpool and the red line for guest team, Portsmouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackpool

29%

32%

24%

16%

Portsmouth

24%

37%

26%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.18 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.27 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.94

1

5.43

2-3

2.03

2

4.02

4+

3.97

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.94

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.30

3.63

2.37

2-3 goals

2.65

4.18

2.61

4+ goals

2.47

3.15

3.60

Ov 1.5

2.59

3.76

2.88

Un 1.5

3.30

3.63

2.37

Ov 2.5

2.16

6.20

2.67

Un 2.5

3.73

2.68

2.79

Ov 3.5

2.47

3.15

3.60

Un 3.5

2.84

3.97

2.52

Goal-Goal

2.83

2.72

3.59

No Goal

2.63

6.59

2.13

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.21

5.25

2.80

NG+Un 2.5

2.85

6.59

2.14


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Northampton vs Fleetwood Town at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Northampton and Fleetwood Town for League One (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Northampton

3.72

3.05

5.9

Draw

3.49

3.88

-2.9

Fleetwood Town

2.00

2.41

-8.5

Over 2.5

2.07

1.95

3.0

Under 2.5

1.77

2.06

-8.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Northampton, Over 2.5 (5.9 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Northampton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance at home.
Northampton, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Rochdale

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Burton

A

3

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Accrington

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Milton Keynes Dons

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Wigan

A

3

2

W

O

G

27 Oct

Portsmouth

A

0

4

L

O

N

24 Oct

Charlton

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Oct

Swindon

H

2

1

W

O

G


Fleetwood Town in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fleetwood Town in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance as a guest.
Fleetwood Town, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Sunderland

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Plymouth

H

5

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Bristol Rvs

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Charlton

A

2

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Oxford

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Shrewsbury

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Gillingham

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Accrington

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Northampton and the red line for guest team, Fleetwood Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Northampton

33%

28%

23%

16%

Fleetwood Town

21%

38%

25%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Northampton to score 0.93 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the guest team Fleetwood Town to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.22 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.37 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

4.00

1

5.52

2-3

2.08

2

4.24

4+

3.73

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.10

Un 1.5

4.00

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.73

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.39

3.62

2.02

2-3 goals

2.82

4.62

2.33

4+ goals

2.68

3.15

3.23

Ov 1.5

2.77

3.96

2.59

Un 1.5

4.39

3.62

2.02

Ov 2.5

2.32

6.02

2.49

Un 2.5

4.58

2.81

2.35

Ov 3.5

2.68

3.15

3.23

Un 3.5

3.22

4.22

2.21

Goal-Goal

2.81

2.80

3.48

No Goal

3.37

6.80

1.80

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.26

5.00

2.80

NG+Un 2.5

3.60

6.80

1.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sunderland vs Burton at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and Burton for League One (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sunderland

1.53

2.00

-15.4

Draw

4.23

3.68

3.5

Burton

5.88

4.39

5.8

Over 2.5

1.79

2.31

-12.6

Under 2.5

2.04

1.76

7.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Burton, Under 2.5 (3.5 %, 5.8 %, 7.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sunderland in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Fleetwood Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Doncaster

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Nov

Ipswich

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Gillingham

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Rochdale

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Oct

Portsmouth

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Oct

Crewe

H

1

0

W

U

N


Burton in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance as a guest.
Burton, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 14.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Charlton

H

4

2

W

O

G

21 Nov

Northampton

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Nov

Hull

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Nov

Shrewsbury

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Blackpool

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Oct

Peterboro

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Oct

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Oct

Rochdale

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Burton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sunderland

17%

42%

24%

17%

Burton

39%

35%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.95 goals and Burton to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 1.22 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.4 goals and Burton to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.41

1

4.42

2-3

1.94

2

3.64

4+

5.21

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.41

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.31

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

5.21

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.77

4.37

4.88

2-3 goals

2.09

3.46

4.29

4+ goals

2.16

3.43

4.09

Ov 1.5

2.11

3.45

4.23

Un 1.5

1.77

4.37

4.88

Ov 2.5

1.80

7.71

3.18

Un 2.5

2.18

2.63

6.24

Ov 3.5

2.16

3.43

4.09

Un 3.5

1.96

3.74

4.49

Goal-Goal

2.89

2.45

4.06

No Goal

1.52

7.42

4.83

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.03

6.32

2.85

NG+Un 2.5

1.61

7.42

4.60


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Plymouth vs Rochdale at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Plymouth and Rochdale for League One (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Plymouth

1.87

2.11

-6.1

Draw

3.74

3.69

0.4

Rochdale

3.90

3.92

-0.1

Over 2.5

1.76

2.22

-11.8

Under 2.5

2.08

1.82

6.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (0.4 %, 6.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Plymouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Plymouth in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance at home.
Plymouth, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 17 points, 81.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Peterboro

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Fleetwood Town

A

1

5

L

O

G

16 Nov

Portsmouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Nov

Swindon

H

4

2

W

O

G

27 Oct

Doncaster

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Wigan

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Oct

Lincoln

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Oct

Northampton

H

2

1

W

O

G


Rochdale in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance as a guest.
Rochdale, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Northampton

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

AFC Wimbledon

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Oxford

A

1

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Bristol Rvs

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Oct

Sunderland

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Oct

Shrewsbury

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Burton

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Hull

H

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Plymouth and the red line for guest team, Rochdale.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Plymouth

20%

39%

24%

17%

Rochdale

37%

35%

19%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Plymouth to score 1.71 goals and Rochdale to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the home team Plymouth to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Plymouth to score 1.39 goals and Rochdale to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Plymouth to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.51

1

4.72

2-3

1.98

2

3.79

4+

4.74

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.51

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.74

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-