# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Grimsby vs Exeter at 01 December 2020**** Bradford vs Cheltenham at 01 December 2020**** Colchester vs Crawley Town at 01 December 2020**** Harrogate vs Scunthorpe at 01 December 2020**** Morecambe vs Barrow at 01 December 2020**** Oldham vs Tranmere at 01 December 2020**** Forest Green vs Newport County at 01 December 2020**** Cambridge vs Mansfield at 02 December 2020**** Carlisle vs Salford at 02 December 2020**** Walsall vs Stevenage at 02 December 2020**

###
Grimsby vs Exeter at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Grimsby** and **Exeter** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **01 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Grimsby |
3.94 |
2.74 |
11.1 |

Draw |
3.54 |
3.57 |
-0.2 |

Exeter |
1.90 |
2.81 |
-17.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.31 |
-9.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
1.76 |
4.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Grimsby, Under 2.5 (11.1 %, 4.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Grimsby** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Grimsby** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance** at home**.

Grimsby,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Crawley Town |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Nov |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Exeter** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Exeter** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance** as a guest**.

Exeter,** as a guest**, had one win, 6 draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Colchester |
H |
6 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Bradford |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Morecambe |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Scunthorpe |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Crawley Town |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Grimsby** and the red line for guest team, **Exeter. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Grimsby |
31% |
33% |
23% |
12% |

Exeter |
31% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Grimsby** to score **0.95 ** goals and **Exeter** to score **1.6 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the guest team **Exeter ** to win by **0.65** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Grimsby** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Exeter** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.42 |
0-1 |
3.24 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.93 |

3 |
4.37 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
7.46 |
Un 1.5 |
3.24 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |

Gg |
2.10 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.93 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.06 |
3.22 |
2.76 |

2-3 goals |
2.52 |
4.09 |
2.78 |

4+ goals |
2.90 |
3.12 |
2.99 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.62 |
3.75 |
2.84 |

Un 1.5 |
3.06 |
3.22 |
2.76 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
6.65 |
2.45 |

Un 2.5 |
3.28 |
2.64 |
3.17 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.90 |
3.12 |
2.99 |

Un 3.5 |
2.71 |
3.70 |
2.77 |

Goal-Goal |
3.10 |
2.59 |
3.43 |

No Goal |
2.49 |
5.44 |
2.42 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
5.51 |
2.58 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
5.44 |
2.50 |

####
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###
Bradford vs Cheltenham at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bradford** and **Cheltenham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **01 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bradford |
3.27 |
3.28 |
-0.1 |

Draw |
3.43 |
3.68 |
-2.0 |

Cheltenham |
2.15 |
2.36 |
-4.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.11 |
-3.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.90 |
-1.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bradford** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bradford** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance** at home**.

Bradford,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Salford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Exeter |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Southend |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Oct |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** as a guest**.

Cheltenham,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Walsall |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Carlisle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Forest Green |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Mansfield |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bradford** and the red line for guest team, **Cheltenham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bradford |
32% |
34% |
22% |
12% |

Cheltenham |
22% |
37% |
25% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.06 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.43 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the guest team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.70 |

1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.33 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.70 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.33 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.55 |
3.75 |
2.21 |

2-3 goals |
3.24 |
3.90 |
2.30 |

4+ goals |
3.12 |
3.21 |
2.72 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.20 |
3.65 |
2.42 |

Un 1.5 |
3.55 |
3.75 |
2.21 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.62 |
6.56 |
2.15 |

Un 2.5 |
4.26 |
2.64 |
2.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.12 |
3.21 |
2.72 |

Un 3.5 |
3.34 |
3.84 |
2.27 |

Goal-Goal |
3.41 |
2.62 |
3.07 |

No Goal |
3.17 |
6.60 |
1.88 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.58 |
5.51 |
2.32 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.23 |
6.60 |
1.96 |

####
Go to Top

###
Colchester vs Crawley Town at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Colchester** and **Crawley Town** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **01 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Colchester |
2.23 |
2.13 |
2.1 |

Draw |
3.36 |
3.79 |
-3.4 |

Crawley Town |
3.19 |
3.76 |
-4.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.05 |
-4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.93 |
1.95 |
-0.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Colchester (2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Colchester** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Colchester** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance** at home**.

Colchester,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Nov |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Stevenage |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Harrogate |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Carlisle |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Crawley Town** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crawley Town** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance** as a guest**.

Crawley Town,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Carlisle |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Walsall |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Cambridge |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Tranmere |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Salford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Colchester** and the red line for guest team, **Crawley Town. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Colchester |
21% |
34% |
25% |
20% |

Crawley Town |
34% |
35% |
21% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Colchester** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Crawley Town** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the home team **Colchester ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Colchester** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Crawley Town** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Colchester ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.82 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.20 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.20 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.24 |
3.69 |
3.54 |

2-3 goals |
2.07 |
4.10 |
3.65 |

4+ goals |
2.14 |
3.31 |
4.33 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.10 |
3.80 |
3.84 |

Un 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.69 |
3.54 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
6.76 |
3.29 |

Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
2.66 |
4.35 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.14 |
3.31 |
4.33 |

Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.95 |
3.61 |

Goal-Goal |
2.62 |
2.70 |
4.05 |

No Goal |
1.77 |
6.72 |
3.48 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.57 |
3.11 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.72 |
3.31 |

####
Go to Top

###
Harrogate vs Scunthorpe at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Harrogate** and **Scunthorpe** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **01 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Harrogate |
1.92 |
2.45 |
-11.3 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.70 |
-2.9 |

Scunthorpe |
4.22 |
3.11 |
8.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.13 |
0.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.88 |
-4.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Scunthorpe (8.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Harrogate** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Harrogate** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance** at home**.

Harrogate,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** as a guest**.

Scunthorpe,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Nov |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Nov |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Oct |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Harrogate** and the red line for guest team, **Scunthorpe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Harrogate |
27% |
30% |
28% |
14% |

Scunthorpe |
31% |
36% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Harrogate** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **0.85 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the home team **Harrogate ** to win by **0.63** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Harrogate** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.61 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.37 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.95 |
3.26 |
2.83 |

2-3 goals |
2.14 |
4.55 |
3.20 |