2020 12 01 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Grimsby vs Exeter at 01 December 2020
Bradford vs Cheltenham at 01 December 2020
Colchester vs Crawley Town at 01 December 2020
Harrogate vs Scunthorpe at 01 December 2020
Morecambe vs Barrow at 01 December 2020
Oldham vs Tranmere at 01 December 2020
Forest Green vs Newport County at 01 December 2020
Cambridge vs Mansfield at 02 December 2020
Carlisle vs Salford at 02 December 2020
Walsall vs Stevenage at 02 December 2020


Grimsby vs Exeter at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Grimsby and Exeter for League Two (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Grimsby

3.94

2.74

11.1

Draw

3.54

3.57

-0.2

Exeter

1.90

2.81

-17.0

Over 2.5

1.89

2.31

-9.6

Under 2.5

1.90

1.76

4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Grimsby, Under 2.5 (11.1 %, 4.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Grimsby in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance at home.
Grimsby, at home, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Crawley Town

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Tranmere

A

0

5

L

O

N

03 Nov

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Stevenage

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Oct

Forest Green

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Carlisle

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Oct

Harrogate

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Leyton Orient

A

3

2

W

O

G


Exeter in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Exeter in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance as a guest.
Exeter, as a guest, had one win, 6 draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Colchester

H

6

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Oldham

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Nov

Bradford

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Nov

Morecambe

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Carlisle

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Leyton Orient

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Scunthorpe

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Crawley Town

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Grimsby and the red line for guest team, Exeter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Grimsby

31%

33%

23%

12%

Exeter

31%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Grimsby to score 0.95 goals and Exeter to score 1.6 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the guest team Exeter to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Grimsby to score 1.17 goals and Exeter to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.42

0-1

3.24

1

4.69

2-3

2.05

2

3.88

4+

4.93

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.46

Un 1.5

3.24

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.31

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

4.93

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.06

3.22

2.76

2-3 goals

2.52

4.09

2.78

4+ goals

2.90

3.12

2.99

Ov 1.5

2.62

3.75

2.84

Un 1.5

3.06

3.22

2.76

Ov 2.5

2.26

6.65

2.45

Un 2.5

3.28

2.64

3.17

Ov 3.5

2.90

3.12

2.99

Un 3.5

2.71

3.70

2.77

Goal-Goal

3.10

2.59

3.43

No Goal

2.49

5.44

2.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.32

5.51

2.58

NG+Un 2.5

2.59

5.44

2.50


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Bradford vs Cheltenham at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bradford and Cheltenham for League Two (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bradford

3.27

3.28

-0.1

Draw

3.43

3.68

-2.0

Cheltenham

2.15

2.36

-4.1

Over 2.5

1.95

2.11

-3.9

Under 2.5

1.86

1.90

-1.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bradford in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bradford in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance at home.
Bradford, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Leyton Orient

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Salford

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Nov

Exeter

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Nov

Southend

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Barrow

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Oct

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Newport County

H

0

3

L

O

N

20 Oct

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G


Cheltenham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance as a guest.
Cheltenham, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Cambridge

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Walsall

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Nov

Carlisle

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Oldham

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Forest Green

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Port Vale

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Mansfield

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Oct

Scunthorpe

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bradford and the red line for guest team, Cheltenham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bradford

32%

34%

22%

12%

Cheltenham

22%

37%

25%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.06 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.43 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the guest team Cheltenham to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.13 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.70

1

5.05

2-3

2.00

2

3.88

4+

4.33

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.70

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.33

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.55

3.75

2.21

2-3 goals

3.24

3.90

2.30

4+ goals

3.12

3.21

2.72

Ov 1.5

3.20

3.65

2.42

Un 1.5

3.55

3.75

2.21

Ov 2.5

2.62

6.56

2.15

Un 2.5

4.26

2.64

2.59

Ov 3.5

3.12

3.21

2.72

Un 3.5

3.34

3.84

2.27

Goal-Goal

3.41

2.62

3.07

No Goal

3.17

6.60

1.88

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.58

5.51

2.32

NG+Un 2.5

3.23

6.60

1.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Colchester vs Crawley Town at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Colchester and Crawley Town for League Two (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Colchester

2.23

2.13

2.1

Draw

3.36

3.79

-3.4

Crawley Town

3.19

3.76

-4.8

Over 2.5

1.88

2.05

-4.4

Under 2.5

1.93

1.95

-0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Colchester (2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Colchester in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance at home.
Colchester, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Exeter

A

1

6

L

O

G

20 Nov

Mansfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Leyton Orient

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Stevenage

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Newport County

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Harrogate

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Forest Green

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Carlisle

A

2

3

L

O

G


Crawley Town in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance as a guest.
Crawley Town, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Grimsby

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Carlisle

H

0

3

L

O

N

14 Nov

Harrogate

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Walsall

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Cambridge

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Tranmere

H

4

0

W

O

N

24 Oct

Salford

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Oct

Exeter

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Colchester and the red line for guest team, Crawley Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Colchester

21%

34%

25%

20%

Crawley Town

34%

35%

21%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Colchester to score 1.45 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Colchester to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Colchester to score 1.44 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Colchester to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.82

1

5.24

2-3

2.00

2

3.98

4+

4.20

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.82

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

4.20

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.24

3.69

3.54

2-3 goals

2.07

4.10

3.65

4+ goals

2.14

3.31

4.33

Ov 1.5

2.10

3.80

3.84

Un 1.5

2.24

3.69

3.54

Ov 2.5

1.82

6.76

3.29

Un 2.5

2.54

2.66

4.35

Ov 3.5

2.14

3.31

4.33

Un 3.5

2.13

3.95

3.61

Goal-Goal

2.62

2.70

4.05

No Goal

1.77

6.72

3.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.57

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

1.94

6.72

3.31


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Harrogate vs Scunthorpe at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Harrogate and Scunthorpe for League Two (England), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Harrogate

1.92

2.45

-11.3

Draw

3.34

3.70

-2.9

Scunthorpe

4.22

3.11

8.5

Over 2.5

2.13

2.13

0.0

Under 2.5

1.73

1.88

-4.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Scunthorpe (8.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Harrogate in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance at home.
Harrogate, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Mansfield

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Leyton Orient

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Nov

Crawley Town

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Tranmere

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Newport County

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Oct

Stevenage

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Oct

Colchester

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Oct

Grimsby

A

2

1

W

O

G


Scunthorpe in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance as a guest.
Scunthorpe, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Nov

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Morecambe

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Nov

Port Vale

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Nov

Oldham

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Exeter

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Oct

Cheltenham

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Cambridge

H

0

5

L

O

N

10 Oct

Forest Green

H

1

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Harrogate and the red line for guest team, Scunthorpe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Harrogate

27%

30%

28%

14%

Scunthorpe

31%

36%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.48 goals and Scunthorpe to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Harrogate to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.29 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.61

1

5.21

2-3

2.02

2

3.94

4+

4.37

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.61

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

</

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.95

3.26

2.83

2-3 goals

2.14

4.55

3.20