2020 12 01 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Girona vs Mirandes at 01 December 2020
Fuenlabrada vs Malaga at 01 December 2020
Lugo vs Las Palmas at 02 December 2020
Logrones vs Ponferradina at 02 December 2020
Leganes vs Vallecano at 02 December 2020
Cartagena vs Espanol at 02 December 2020
Castellon vs Zaragoza at 02 December 2020
Almeria vs Mallorca at 03 December 2020
Sp Gijon vs Albacete at 03 December 2020
Oviedo vs Alcorcon at 03 December 2020
Tenerife vs Sabadell at 03 December 2020


Girona vs Mirandes at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Girona and Mirandes for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Girona

2.37

2.75

-5.8

Draw

2.90

3.46

-5.6

Mirandes

3.35

2.88

4.9

Over 2.5

2.73

2.48

3.7

Under 2.5

1.46

1.68

-9.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Mirandes, Over 2.5 (4.9 %, 3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Girona in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Girona in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Girona’s performance at home.
Girona, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Girona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Alcorcon

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Nov

Malaga

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Nov

Espanol

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Mallorca

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Nov

Las Palmas

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Nov

Zaragoza

A

2

2

D

O

G

01 Nov

Almeria

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Oct

Cartagena

H

2

1

W

O

G


Mirandes in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mirandes in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance as a guest.
Mirandes, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Castellon

H

1

1

D

U

G

25 Nov

Las Palmas

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Cartagena

H

4

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Almeria

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Sp Gijon

H

1

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Leganes

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Oct

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Malaga

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Girona and the red line for guest team, Mirandes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Girona

30%

37%

23%

10%

Mirandes

33%

35%

22%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Girona to score 1.1 goals and Mirandes to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.97 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Girona to score 1.12 goals and Mirandes to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.08

1

4.42

2-3

2.01

2

3.68

4+

5.62

3

4.42

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.13

Un 1.5

3.08

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.48

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

5.62

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

3.28

3.12

2-3 goals

2.68

3.86

2.72

4+ goals

3.18

2.92

2.92

Ov 1.5

2.79

3.56

2.77

Un 1.5

2.66

3.28

3.12

Ov 2.5

2.42

6.62

2.30

Un 2.5

3.03

2.62

3.47

Ov 3.5

3.18

2.92

2.92

Un 3.5

2.67

3.61

2.87

Goal-Goal

3.48

2.47

3.24

No Goal

2.32

5.36

2.62

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.53

5.59

2.35

NG+Un 2.5

2.38

5.36

2.72


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Fuenlabrada vs Malaga at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Malaga for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 01 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fuenlabrada

1.86

2.02

-4.3

Draw

3.13

3.76

-5.4

Malaga

4.89

4.20

3.4

Over 2.5

2.81

2.21

9.7

Under 2.5

1.42

1.83

-15.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Malaga, Over 2.5 (3.4 %, 9.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fuenlabrada in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fuenlabrada in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance at home.
Fuenlabrada, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Sabadell

A

2

1

W

O

G

25 Nov

Ponferradina

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Oviedo

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Espanol

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Alcorcon

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Tenerife

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Oct

Vallecano

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Almeria

A

0

3

L

O

N


Malaga in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Malaga in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Malaga’s performance as a guest.
Malaga, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Malaga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Lugo

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Girona

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Leganes

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Nov

Ponferradina

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Sabadell

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Espanol

H

0

3

L

O

N

29 Oct

Mallorca

A

1

3

L

O

G

25 Oct

Mirandes

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fuenlabrada and the red line for guest team, Malaga.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fuenlabrada

21%

34%

26%

18%

Malaga

38%

37%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.26 goals and Malaga to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.92 goals in the game and the home team Fuenlabrada to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.42 goals and Malaga to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Fuenlabrada to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.52

1

4.85

2-3

1.98

2

3.80

4+

4.81

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.52

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.81

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.18

3.64

3.74

2-3 goals

1.92

4.02

4.36

4+ goals

2.06

3.30

4.73

Ov 1.5

1.96

3.78

4.46

Un 1.5

2.18

3.64

3.74

Ov 2.5

1.70

7.16

3.70

Un 2.5

2.39

2.68

4.80

Ov 3.5

2.06

3.30

4.73

Un 3.5

2.01

3.87

4.11

Goal-Goal

2.50

2.61

4.61

No Goal

1.69

6.47

3.91

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

5.83

3.43

NG+Un 2.5

1.84

6.47

3.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Lugo vs Las Palmas at 02 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Lugo and Las Palmas for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 02 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lugo

2.73

2.04

12.4

Draw

2.87

3.73

-8.0

Las Palmas

2.93

4.12

-9.9

Over 2.5

2.70

2.23

7.8

Under 2.5

1.45

1.81

-13.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lugo, Over 2.5 (12.4 %, 7.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lugo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lugo in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance at home.
Lugo, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Malaga

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Oviedo

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Nov

Alcorcon

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Nov

Albacete

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Espanol

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Nov

Vallecano

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Oct

Tenerife

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Logrones

A

3

2

W

O

G


Las Palmas in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Las Palmas in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Las Palmas’s performance as a guest.
Las Palmas, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Las Palmas was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Sp Gijon

H

3

2

W

O

G

25 Nov

Mirandes

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Nov

Sabadell

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Nov

Tenerife

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Nov

Girona

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Oviedo

H

1

2

L

O

G

28 Oct

Albacete

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Cartagena

A

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lugo and the red line for guest team, Las Palmas.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lugo

21%

34%

26%

18%

Las Palmas

37%

37%

18%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.01 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.97 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.41 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Lugo to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.48

1

4.83

2-3

1.97

2

3.79

4+

4.83

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.48

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.22

3.59

3.68

2-3 goals

1.94

4.02

4.23

4+ goals

2.09

3.34

4.50

Ov 1.5

1.98

3.80

4.30

Un 1.5

2.22

3.59

3.68

Ov 2.5

1.72

7.26

3.57

Un 2.5

2.43

2.67

4.67

Ov 3.5

2.09

3.34

4.50

Un 3.5

2.04

3.85

4.01

Goal-Goal

2.53

2.62

4.48

No Goal

1.73

6.35

3.79

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

5.92

3.34

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

6.35

3.60


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Logrones vs Ponferradina at 02 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Logrones and Ponferradina for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 02 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Logrones

2.32

2.11

4.3

Draw

2.97

3.68

-6.5

Ponferradina

3.35

3.94

-4.5

Over 2.5

2.60

2.27

5.6

Under 2.5

1.47

1.79

-12.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Logrones, Over 2.5 (4.3 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Logrones in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Logrones in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Logrones’s performance at home.
Logrones, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Logrones was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Mallorca

A

0

4

L

O

N

26 Nov

Albacete

H

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Tenerife

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Nov

Sabadell

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Cartagena

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Nov

Alcorcon

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Oct

Oviedo

A

3

2

W

O

G

24 Oct

Lugo

H

2

3

L

O

G


Ponferradina in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ponferradina in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance as a guest.
Ponferradina, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Leganes

H

3

2

W

O

G

25 Nov

Fuenlabrada

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Zaragoza

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Nov

Malaga

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Mallorca

A

0

3

L

O

N

05 Nov

Alcorcon

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Sabadell

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Oct

Espanol

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Logrones and the red line for guest team, Ponferradina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Logrones

23%

35%

26%

17%

Ponferradina

37%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Logrones to score 1.13 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.01 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Logrones to score 1.37 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Logrones to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.41

1

4.76

2-3

1.99

2

3.79

4+

4.98

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.41

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.98

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.53

3.53