# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Girona vs Mirandes at 01 December 2020**** Fuenlabrada vs Malaga at 01 December 2020**** Lugo vs Las Palmas at 02 December 2020**** Logrones vs Ponferradina at 02 December 2020**** Leganes vs Vallecano at 02 December 2020**** Cartagena vs Espanol at 02 December 2020**** Castellon vs Zaragoza at 02 December 2020**** Almeria vs Mallorca at 03 December 2020**** Sp Gijon vs Albacete at 03 December 2020**** Oviedo vs Alcorcon at 03 December 2020**** Tenerife vs Sabadell at 03 December 2020**

###
Girona vs Mirandes at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Girona** and **Mirandes** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **01 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Girona |
2.37 |
2.75 |
-5.8 |

Draw |
2.90 |
3.46 |
-5.6 |

Mirandes |
3.35 |
2.88 |
4.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.73 |
2.48 |
3.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.46 |
1.68 |
-9.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Mirandes, Over 2.5 (4.9 %, 3.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 9%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Girona** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Girona scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Girona** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Girona scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Girona’s performance** at home**.

Girona,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Girona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Girona was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Nov |
Alcorcon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Malaga |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Nov |
Espanol |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Mallorca |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Nov |
Las Palmas |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Nov |
Zaragoza |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Cartagena |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Mirandes** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mirandes** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance** as a guest**.

Mirandes,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Castellon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Nov |
Las Palmas |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Cartagena |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Sp Gijon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Leganes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Oct |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Malaga |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Girona** and the red line for guest team, **Mirandes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Girona |
30% |
37% |
23% |
10% |

Mirandes |
33% |
35% |
22% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Girona** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Mirandes** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.97** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Girona** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Mirandes** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.10 |
0-1 |
3.08 |

1 |
4.42 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.68 |
4+ |
5.62 |

3 |
4.42 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.48 |

4 |
8.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.08 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.48 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.68 |

Gg |
2.13 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.62 |

NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.66 |
3.28 |
3.12 |

2-3 goals |
2.68 |
3.86 |
2.72 |

4+ goals |
3.18 |
2.92 |
2.92 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.79 |
3.56 |
2.77 |

Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.28 |
3.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |
6.62 |
2.30 |

Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.62 |
3.47 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.18 |
2.92 |
2.92 |

Un 3.5 |
2.67 |
3.61 |
2.87 |

Goal-Goal |
3.48 |
2.47 |
3.24 |

No Goal |
2.32 |
5.36 |
2.62 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.53 |
5.59 |
2.35 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.38 |
5.36 |
2.72 |

####
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###
Fuenlabrada vs Malaga at 01 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Fuenlabrada** and **Malaga** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **01 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Fuenlabrada |
1.86 |
2.02 |
-4.3 |

Draw |
3.13 |
3.76 |
-5.4 |

Malaga |
4.89 |
4.20 |
3.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.81 |
2.21 |
9.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.42 |
1.83 |
-15.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Malaga, Over 2.5 (3.4 %, 9.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 9%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Fuenlabrada** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fuenlabrada** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance** at home**.

Fuenlabrada,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Sabadell |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Oviedo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Alcorcon |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Tenerife |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Oct |
Vallecano |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Malaga** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Malaga scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Malaga** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Malaga** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Malaga’s performance** as a guest**.

Malaga,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Malaga scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Malaga was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Nov |
Lugo |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Girona |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Leganes |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Nov |
Ponferradina |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Sabadell |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Espanol |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Oct |
Mallorca |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Mirandes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Fuenlabrada** and the red line for guest team, **Malaga. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Fuenlabrada |
21% |
34% |
26% |
18% |

Malaga |
38% |
37% |
18% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Fuenlabrada** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Malaga** to score **0.66 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.92** goals in the game and the home team **Fuenlabrada ** to win by **0.6** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Fuenlabrada** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Malaga** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Fuenlabrada ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.52 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
4.81 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.81 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.18 |
3.64 |
3.74 |

2-3 goals |
1.92 |
4.02 |
4.36 |

4+ goals |
2.06 |
3.30 |
4.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.96 |
3.78 |
4.46 |

Un 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.64 |
3.74 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |
7.16 |
3.70 |

Un 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.68 |
4.80 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.06 |
3.30 |
4.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.01 |
3.87 |
4.11 |

Goal-Goal |
2.50 |
2.61 |
4.61 |

No Goal |
1.69 |
6.47 |
3.91 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
5.83 |
3.43 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.84 |
6.47 |
3.69 |

####
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###
Lugo vs Las Palmas at 02 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lugo** and **Las Palmas** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **02 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lugo |
2.73 |
2.04 |
12.4 |

Draw |
2.87 |
3.73 |
-8.0 |

Las Palmas |
2.93 |
4.12 |
-9.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.23 |
7.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.45 |
1.81 |
-13.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Lugo, Over 2.5 (12.4 %, 7.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 9%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lugo** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lugo** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance** at home**.

Lugo,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Nov |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Oviedo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Nov |
Alcorcon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Albacete |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Espanol |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Vallecano |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Oct |
Tenerife |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Logrones |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Las Palmas** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Las Palmas** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Las Palmas’s performance** as a guest**.

Las Palmas,** as a guest**, had no wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Las Palmas was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Nov |
Sp Gijon |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Mirandes |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Nov |
Tenerife |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Nov |
Girona |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Oct |
Albacete |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Cartagena |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lugo** and the red line for guest team, **Las Palmas. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lugo |
21% |
34% |
26% |
18% |

Las Palmas |
37% |
37% |
18% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lugo** to score **1.01 ** goals and **Las Palmas** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.97** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lugo** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Las Palmas** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and the home team **Lugo ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.48 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
4.83 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.83 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.22 |
3.59 |
3.68 |

2-3 goals |
1.94 |
4.02 |
4.23 |

4+ goals |
2.09 |
3.34 |
4.50 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.98 |
3.80 |
4.30 |

Un 1.5 |
2.22 |
3.59 |
3.68 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
7.26 |
3.57 |

Un 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.67 |
4.67 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.34 |
4.50 |

Un 3.5 |
2.04 |
3.85 |
4.01 |

Goal-Goal |
2.53 |
2.62 |
4.48 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
6.35 |
3.79 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
5.92 |
3.34 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
6.35 |
3.60 |

####
Go to Top

###
Logrones vs Ponferradina at 02 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Logrones** and **Ponferradina** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **02 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Logrones |
2.32 |
2.11 |
4.3 |

Draw |
2.97 |
3.68 |
-6.5 |

Ponferradina |
3.35 |
3.94 |
-4.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.60 |
2.27 |
5.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.47 |
1.79 |
-12.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Logrones, Over 2.5 (4.3 %, 5.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 9%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Logrones** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Logrones scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Logrones** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Logrones scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Logrones’s performance** at home**.

Logrones,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Logrones scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Logrones was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Nov |
Mallorca |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

26 Nov |
Albacete |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Tenerife |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Nov |
Sabadell |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Cartagena |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Nov |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Oct |
Oviedo |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Lugo |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Ponferradina** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ponferradina** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance** as a guest**.

Ponferradina,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Nov |
Leganes |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Zaragoza |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Nov |
Malaga |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Mallorca |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Nov |
Alcorcon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Sabadell |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Oct |
Espanol |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Logrones** and the red line for guest team, **Ponferradina. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Logrones |
23% |
35% |
26% |
17% |

Ponferradina |
37% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Logrones** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Ponferradina** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.01** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Logrones** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Ponferradina** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the home team **Logrones ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.41 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
4.98 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.41 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.98 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.31 |
3.53 |
3.53 |