2020 12 01 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Larisa vs Aris at 02 December 2020


Larisa vs Aris at 02 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Larisa and Aris for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 02 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Larisa

2.79

3.28

-5.4

Draw

2.87

3.57

-6.8

Aris

2.68

2.40

4.4

Over 2.5

2.46

2.55

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.52

1.64

-4.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aris (4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Larisa in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance at home.
Larisa, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Atromitos

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Nov

AEK

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Nov

Giannina

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Volos NFC

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Asteras Tripolis

H

1

3

L

O

G

04 Oct

Apollon

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Sep

Panathinaikos

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Sep

PAOK

A

0

1

L

U

N


Aris in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aris in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance as a guest.
Aris, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Aris was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Olympiakos

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Panetolikos

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Apollon

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Oct

Panathinaikos

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Giannina

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Sep

Volos NFC

A

1

0

W

U

N

11 Sep

Lamia

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Larisa and the red line for guest team, Aris.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Larisa

45%

22%

25%

8%

Aris

33%

33%

18%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Larisa to score 1.03 goals and Aris to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Larisa to score 0.96 goals and Aris to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.67

0-1

2.69

1

4.50

2-3

2.19

2

4.26

4+

5.78

3

4.52

Ov 1.5

1.59

4

9.43

Un 1.5

2.69

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.54

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.65

Gg

2.72

Ov 3.5

5.78

NoG

1.58

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.10

2.48

2.50

2-3 goals

2.38

6.25

2.39

4+ goals

4.32

3.04

2.28

Ov 1.5

2.71

4.84

2.36

Un 1.5

5.10

2.48

2.50

Ov 2.5

2.64

6.91

2.10

Un 2.5

3.89

2.72

2.66

Ov 3.5

4.32

3.04

2.28

Un 3.5

3.12

3.71

2.44

Goal-Goal

2.99

2.83

3.20

No Goal

3.48

4.22

2.10

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.40

5.18

2.57

NG+Un 2.5

3.42

4.22

2.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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