2020 12 02 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Reggiana vs Universo Treviso at 03 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Reggiana vs Universo Treviso at 03 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Reggiana and Universo Treviso for Serie A, which will take place on 03 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Reggiana

1.5

2

Universo Treviso

2.6

2

Reggiana HC

-4.5

1

Universo Treviso HC

+4.5

1

Point Line

164.5

159

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reggiana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

63

84

3

3

L 1

67

84

Oct 24

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

83

67

3

2

W 2

84

73

Oct 18

A

Virtus Bologna

W

77

67

2

2

W 1

79

65

Oct 11

H

Enel Brindisi

L

76

80

1

2

L 1

80

73

Oct 3

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

87

81

1

1

W 1

89

83

Sep 27

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

71

87

0

1

L 0

82

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Universo Treviso are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 18

H

Red October Cantu

W

89

82

3

3

W 2

88

84

Nov 7

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

98

87

2

3

W 1

91

88

Oct 18

A

Enel Brindisi

L

83

99

1

3

L 3

87

91

Oct 11

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

87

94

1

2

L 2

89

102

Oct 4

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

64

104

1

1

L 1

74

94

Sep 26

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

84

80

1

0

W 0

86

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reggiana and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Universo Treviso.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Universo Treviso and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reggiana.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Reggiana (in the first graph) and by Universo Treviso in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Reggiana

Universo Treviso

FG%

0.51

0.53

ASS

14.50

19.00

DRB

24.30

19.50

AST-TO

0.98

1.81

TRB

32.20

28.30

FTM

15.70

15.20

BL

1.80

1.50

FTA

19.70

18.00

PF-Fewer

20.00

22.00

ST

6.80

6.50

TO-Fewer

14.80

10.50

Ftper

0.80

0.84

ORBper

0.32

0.45

ORB

7.80

8.80


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