2020 12 02 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Real Madrid vs Baskonia at 02 December 2020
Bilbao vs Andorra at 03 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Real Madrid vs Baskonia at 03 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Baskonia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 03 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Real Madrid

1.25

2.52

Baskonia

4

1.66

Real Madrid HC

-8.5

3.50

Baskonia HC

+8.5

-3.50

Point Line

158.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

H

Manresa

W

100

78

11

0

W 10

96

76

Nov 8

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

79

68

10

0

W 9

75

64

Nov 4

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

85

83

9

0

W 8

80

84

Nov 1

A

Valencia Basket

W

86

78

8

0

W 7

84

76

Oct 27

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

84

65

7

0

W 6

84

71

Oct 25

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

93

77

6

0

W 5

90

78

Oct 20

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

84

77

5

0

W 4

85

78

Oct 11

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

90

65

4

0

W 3

84

71

Sep 27

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

87

64

3

0

W 2

90

62

Sep 25

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

102

83

2

0

W 1

92

81

Sep 19

A

Acunsa GBC

W

86

70

1

0

W 0

80

81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 15

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

80

74

8

3

W 4

81

75

Nov 7

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

82

68

7

3

W 3

77

69

Nov 1

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

75

71

6

3

W 2

70

77

Oct 28

H

Manresa

W

87

68

5

3

W 1

84

67

Oct 24

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

82

83

4

3

L 1

85

80

Oct 18

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

W

82

71

4

2

W 1

89

69

Oct 11

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

89

91

3

2

L 2

90

83

Oct 4

H

UCAM Murcia

L

75

83

3

1

L 1

77

85

Sep 26

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

86

84

3

0

W 2

83

85

Sep 24

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

89

73

2

0

W 1

85

69

Sep 20

H

Valencia Basket

W

76

73

1

0

W 0

74

71

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Madrid (in the first graph) and by Baskonia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Real Madrid

Baskonia

FG%

0.58

0.51

ASS

18.40

16.80

DRB

26.70

21.40

AST-TO

1.42

1.44

TRB

35.20

31.40

FTM

11.80

15.80

BL

4.30

2.30

FTA

15.30

20.20

PF-Fewer

16.60

16.50

ST

8.30

9.20

TO-Fewer

13.00

11.70

Ftper

0.77

0.78

ORBper

0.32

0.47

ORB

8.50

10.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Bilbao vs Andorra at 03 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bilbao and Andorra for Liga ACB, which will take place on 03 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bilbao

1.8

2.57

Andorra

2.02

1.64

Bilbao HC

-1.5

3.50

Andorra HC

+1.5

-3.50

Point Line

160.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

96

89

2

8

W 1

96

97

Nov 15

H

UCAM Murcia

L

63

73

1

8

L 5

64

75

Nov 7

A

Baskonia

L

68

82

1

7

L 4

72

82

Nov 4

H

Real Madrid

L

83

85

1

6

L 3

91

79

Oct 31

A

Manresa

L

78

94

1

5

L 2

75

92

Oct 11

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

81

88

1

4

L 1

84

85

Oct 3

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

99

81

1

3

W 1

100

82

Sep 27

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

64

82

0

3

L 2

69

80

Sep 23

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

70

81

0

2

L 1

71

76

Sep 19

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

102

107

0

1

L 0

95

116

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 21

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

79

62

4

4

W 1

73

68

Oct 25

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

71

82

3

4

L 1

77

80

Oct 17

H

San Pablo Burgos

W

87

82

3

3

W 2

88

75

Oct 10

A

Manresa

W

69

64

2

3

W 1

66

63

Oct 3

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

87

89

1

3

L 3

90

86

Sep 27

H

Unicaja

L

78

81

1

2

L 2

81

80

Sep 25

A

Valencia Basket

L

76

91

1

1

L 1

74

89

Sep 20

H

UCAM Murcia

W

84

66

1

0

W 0

86

68

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bilbao (in the first graph) and by Andorra in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bilbao

Andorra

FG%

0.53

0.55

ASS

15.40

16.10

DRB

20.80

23.40

AST-TO

1.03

1.08

TRB

30.50

33.00

FTM

14.10

11.00

BL

2.80

3.50

FTA

17.60

14.50

PF-Fewer

20.60

21.60

ST

6.10

7.50

TO-Fewer

15.00

14.90

Ftper

0.80

0.76

ORBper

0.47

0.41

ORB

9.70

9.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.



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