2020 12 02 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Olimpia Milano vs Panathinaikos at 03 December 2020
CSKA Moscow vs Olympiacos at 03 December 2020
Zenit vs Fenerbahce at 03 December 2020
Valencia vs Alba Berlin at 03 December 2020
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Crvena Zvezda at 03 December 2020
Bayern Munich vs Khimki at 04 December 2020
Real Madrid vs Villeurbanne at 04 December 2020
Zalgiris vs Barcelona at 04 December 2020
Anadolu Efes vs Baskonia at 04 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Olimpia Milano vs Panathinaikos at 04 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Olimpia Milano and Panathinaikos for EuroLeague, which will take place on 04 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Olimpia Milano

1.27

1.54

Panathinaikos

3.95

2.85

Olimpia Milano HC

-7.5

-4.50

Panathinaikos HC

+7.5

4.50

Point Line

159.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 1

H

Alba Berlin

W

75

55

6

3

W 3

70

58

Nov 26

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

86

85

5

3

W 2

85

84

Nov 20

H

Zalgiris

W

98

92

4

3

W 1

95

91

Nov 18

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

79

87

3

3

L 2

81

92

Nov 6

A

Valencia Basket

L

81

86

3

2

L 1

80

82

Oct 16

H

Real Madrid

W

78

70

3

1

W 1

78

68

Oct 14

A

Olympiacos

L

75

86

2

1

L 1

78

88

Oct 9

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

87

73

2

0

W 1

89

77

Oct 2

A

Bayern Munich

W

81

79

1

0

W 0

82

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 1

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

73

97

3

7

L 1

74

102

Nov 27

H

Bayern Munich

W

83

76

3

6

W 1

84

75

Nov 19

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

72

93

2

6

L 4

75

90

Nov 17

A

Valencia Basket

L

83

95

2

5

L 3

82

90

Nov 13

H

Anadolu Efes

L

77

80

2

4

L 2

78

77

Nov 6

H

CSKA Moscow

L

83

89

2

3

L 1

81

85

Oct 22

H

Fenerbahce

W

82

68

2

2

W 1

81

72

Oct 15

A

FC Barcelona

L

89

97

1

2

L 2

98

94

Oct 9

H

Olympiacos

L

71

78

1

1

L 1

74

80

Oct 2

A

BC Khimki

W

78

76

1

0

W 0

70

77

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Olimpia Milano (in the first graph) and by Panathinaikos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Olimpia Milano

Panathinaikos

FG%

0.56

0.52

ASS

14.40

16.80

DRB

22.00

20.90

AST-TO

1.31

1.38

TRB

28.20

30.70

FTM

15.20

12.10

BL

3.00

2.20

FTA

19.60

17.10

PF-Fewer

20.70

21.20

ST

6.90

5.70

TO-Fewer

11.00

12.20

Ftper

0.78

0.71

ORBper

0.28

0.47

ORB

6.20

9.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


CSKA Moscow vs Olympiacos at 04 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between CSKA Moscow and Olympiacos for EuroLeague, which will take place on 04 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

CSKA Moscow

1.25

1.84

Olympiacos

4.15

2.20

CSKA Moscow HC

-8.5

-2.00

Olympiacos HC

+8.5

2.00

Point Line

156.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 26

H

Real Madrid

W

74

73

8

3

W 6

74

71

Nov 19

A

Bayern Munich

W

89

81

7

3

W 5

90

80

Nov 17

A

Zalgiris

W

87

78

6

3

W 4

84

77

Nov 12

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

89

86

5

3

W 3

92

84

Nov 6

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

89

83

4

3

W 2

82

82

Oct 29

H

Valencia Basket

W

84

75

3

3

W 1

83

71

Oct 22

A

Crvena zvezda mts

L

84

86

2

3

L 2

87

91

Oct 16

H

Alba Berlin

L

88

93

2

2

L 1

83

98

Oct 14

A

Fenerbahce

W

78

77

2

1

W 2

77

82

Oct 8

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

76

72

1

1

W 1

75

71

Oct 1

A

FC Barcelona

L

66

76

0

1

L 0

73

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olympiacos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 26

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

76

90

5

4

L 1

79

88

Nov 12

H

Alba Berlin

W

75

71

5

3

W 2

70

75

Nov 5

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

75

66

4

3

W 1

82

70

Oct 30

H

Anadolu Efes

L

79

84

3

3

L 2

80

81

Oct 23

A

Bayern Munich

L

68

74

3

2

L 1

69

73

Oct 16

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

85

82

3

1

W 3

84

81

Oct 14

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

86

75

2

1

W 2

85

72

Oct 9

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

78

71

1

1

W 1

72

70

Oct 1

H

Zalgiris

L

67

68

0

1

L 0

65

67

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olympiacos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olympiacos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by CSKA Moscow (in the first graph) and by Olympiacos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

CSKA Moscow

Olympiacos

FG%

0.54

0.54

ASS

13.80

17.00

DRB

20.50

20.10

AST-TO

1.19

1.30

TRB

30.10

27.40

FTM

17.50

13.90

BL

2.20

2.80

FTA

23.10

18.20

PF-Fewer

19.60

21.20

ST

5.50

7.00

TO-Fewer

11.60

13.10

Ftper

0.76

0.76

ORBper

0.46

0.36

ORB

9.50

7.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Zenit vs Fenerbahce at 04 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Zenit and Fenerbahce for EuroLeague, which will take place on 04 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zenit

1.4

1.42

Fenerbahce

3.05

3.36

Zenit HC

-5.5

-6.00

Fenerbahce HC

+5.5

6.00

Point Line

152.5

145.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 26

A

Zalgiris

W

83

75

6

2

W 3

80

74

Nov 23

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

77

70

5

2

W 2

80

68

Nov 20

A

Alba Berlin

W

73

66

4

2

W 1

69

69

Nov 17

H

BC Khimki

L

83

88

3

2

L 1

74

89

Nov 13

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

66

53

3

1

W 1

67

56

Nov 5

H

Olympiacos

L

66

75

2

1

L 1

68

77

Oct 9

H

FC Barcelona

W

74

70

2

0

W 1

82

68

Oct 1

A

Anadolu Efes

W

73

69

1

0

W 0

74

67

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fenerbahce are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 27

H

Valencia Basket

L

86

90

4

7

L 4

85

86

Nov 20

A

Real Madrid

L

74

94

4

6

L 3

74

92

Nov 17

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

68

86

4

5

L 2

71

84

Nov 12

A

FC Barcelona

L

55

97

4

4

L 1

61

94

Nov 6

H

BC Khimki

W

83

71

4

3

W 2

74

72

Oct 29

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

75

65

3

3

W 1

74

64

Oct 22

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

68

82

2

3

L 3

62

81

Oct 16

H

Bayern Munich

L

71

75

2

2

L 2

72

74

Oct 14

H

CSKA Moscow

L

77

78

2

1

L 1

76

74

Oct 8

A

Anadolu Efes

W

80

71

2

0

W 1

81

69

Oct 2

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

77

63

1

0

W 0

79

66

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fenerbahce.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fenerbahce and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zenit (in the first graph) and by Fenerbahce in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zenit

Fenerbahce

FG%

0.54

0.54

ASS

17.30

17.70

DRB

21.80

22.20

AST-TO

1.43

1.28

TRB

29.80

28.30

FTM

15.80

10.00

BL

2.00

1.50

FTA

19.30

11.70

PF-Fewer

20.30

18.40

ST

6.40

6.20

TO-Fewer

12.10

13.80

Ftper

0.82

0.85

ORBper

0.37

0.27

ORB

8.00

6.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Valencia vs Alba Berlin at 04 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Alba Berlin for EuroLeague, which will take place on 04 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Valencia

1.18

1.48

Alba Berlin

5.2

3.07

Valencia HC

-10.5

-5.50

Alba Berlin HC

+10.5

5.50

Point Line

167.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 27

A

Fenerbahce

W

90

86

7

3

W 3

89

91

Nov 20

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

82

80

6

3

W 2

81

79

Nov 17

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

95

83

5

3

W 1

87

82

Nov 13

A

Bayern Munich

L

79

90

4

3

L 1

80

88

Nov 6

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

86

81

4

2

W 1

85

77

Oct 29

A

CSKA Moscow

L

75

84

3

2

L 1

74

80

Oct 22

A

Zalgiris

W

94

82

3

1

W 1

91

81

Oct 13

H

FC Barcelona

L

66

71

2

1

L 1

73

69

Oct 8

A

Real Madrid

W

93

77

2

0

W 1

93

75

Oct 1

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

65

63

1

0

W 0

66

66

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 1

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

55

75

3

7

L 1

54

72

Nov 26

H

BC Khimki

W

100

80

3

6

W 1

89

81

Nov 20

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

66

73

2

6

L 1

72

77

Nov 18

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

76

75

2

5

W 1

77

79

Nov 12

A

Olympiacos

L

71

75

1

5

L 2

74

77

Nov 5

H

FC Barcelona

L

67

103

1

4

L 1

74

100

Oct 16

A

CSKA Moscow

W

93

88

1

3

W 1

91

84

Oct 13

H

Anadolu Efes

L

72

93

0

3

L 2

73

90

Oct 9

H

Bayern Munich

L

72

90

0

2

L 1

73

88

Oct 1

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

73

80