I choose five games for casual betting today; I ‘ll play them in a 2/5 system.
You can find a detailed analysis of all the football games here. If you are into basketball, you can find an analysis of the basketball games for Dec 02 to Dec 04 here.
You can see the tools that help me to choose games with value in my book here.
Luton vs. Norwich
According to my calculations, those teams are evenly matched these days, with the away team doing slightly better than expected. The market moves towards guests, and over, I view home and under 2.5 goals. Expected goals are around 2.70, so I will bet on 2-3 goals @ 2.00
Middlesbrough vs. Swansea
The market sees a draw, the two teams performing as expected lately, my equations show a possible draw, and the expected goals are around 1.9. Consider all these; I’ll bet on Draw @ 3.00.
Dag and Red vs. Notts County
My equations and market movement point to away win. The expected goals are around 2.30, so I can increase the value of a possible away win by combining it with under 3.5 goals. I’ll bet on 2 + Under 3.5 @ 2.60
Leganes vs. Vallecano
The expected goals are around 2.75, so I’ll bet on Over 2.0 goals @ 2.19
Cartagena vs. Espanol
Market towards an away win, expected goals around 2.65 and the ratings show that both teams’ offenses perform better than expected lately. My equations show a possible away win, so I’ll try to extract more value by betting 2 + Over 1.5 @ 2.52.