2020 12 04 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Hertha vs Union Berlin at 04 December 2020
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig at 05 December 2020
Bielefeld vs Mainz at 05 December 2020
FC Koln vs Wolfsburg at 05 December 2020
Freiburg vs M’gladbach at 05 December 2020
Ein Frankfurt vs Dortmund at 05 December 2020
Werder Bremen vs Stuttgart at 06 December 2020
Schalke 04 vs Leverkusen at 06 December 2020
Hoffenheim vs Augsburg at 07 December 2020


Hertha vs Union Berlin at 04 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Hertha and Union Berlin for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 04 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hertha

2.45

2.87

-6.0

Draw

3.35

3.98

-4.7

Union Berlin

2.97

2.49

6.5

Over 2.5

1.87

1.81

1.8

Under 2.5

1.96

2.23

-6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Union Berlin, Over 2.5 (6.5 %, 1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hertha in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance at home.
Hertha, at home, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Leverkusen

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Dortmund

H

2

5

L

O

G

07 Nov

Augsburg

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Wolfsburg

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

RB Leipzig

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Stuttgart

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Oct

Bayern Munich

A

3

4

L

O

G

25 Sep

Ein Frankfurt

H

1

3

L

O

G


Union Berlin in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Union Berlin in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance as a guest.
Union Berlin, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Ein Frankfurt

H

3

3

D

O

G

22 Nov

FC Koln

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Bielefeld

H

5

0

W

O

N

02 Nov

Hoffenheim

A

3

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Freiburg

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Schalke 04

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Oct

Mainz

H

4

0

W

O

N

26 Sep

M’gladbach

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hertha and the red line for guest team, Union Berlin.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hertha

30%

36%

10%

24%

Union Berlin

31%

21%

24%

24%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.38 goals and Union Berlin to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.28 goals and Union Berlin to score 1.4 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.64

0-1

3.70

1

5.68

2-3

2.32

2

5.62

4+

3.34

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.70

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

17.24

Un 2.5

2.23

Gg

2.08

Ov 3.5

3.34

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

2.87

4.29

2-3 goals

3.42

5.60

1.89

4+ goals

2.77

3.69

2.72

Ov 1.5

3.12

4.62

2.16

Un 1.5

2.39

2.87

4.29

Ov 2.5

2.71

6.81

2.07

Un 2.5

3.13

2.62

3.34

Ov 3.5

2.77

3.69

2.72

Un 3.5

2.93

4.10

2.41

Goal-Goal

3.76

3.04

2.47

No Goal

2.37

5.52

2.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.16

4.99

2.07

NG+Un 2.5

2.59

5.52

2.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bayern Munich

1.44

1.71

-11.0

Draw

5.17

4.39

3.4

RB Leipzig

6.49

5.32

3.4

Over 2.5

1.31

1.73

-18.5

Under 2.5

3.45

2.37

13.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, RB Leipzig, Under 2.5 (3.4 %, 3.4 %, 13.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bayern Munich in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bayern Munich in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bayern Munich’s performance at home.
Bayern Munich, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bayern Munich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Stuttgart

A

3

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Werder Bremen

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Dortmund

A

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

FC Koln

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Ein Frankfurt

H

5

0

W

O

N

17 Oct

Bielefeld

A

4

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Hertha

H

4

3

W

O

G

27 Sep

Hoffenheim

A

1

4

L

O

G


RB Leipzig in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, RB Leipzig in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at RB Leipzig’s performance as a guest.
RB Leipzig, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of RB Leipzig was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Bielefeld

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Freiburg

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

M’gladbach

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Hertha

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Augsburg

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Schalke 04

H

4

0

W

O

N

26 Sep

Leverkusen

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bayern Munich and the red line for guest team, RB Leipzig.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bayern Munich

14%

28%

22%

35%

RB Leipzig

36%

37%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bayern Munich to score 2.81 goals and RB Leipzig to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.7 goals in the game and the home team Bayern Munich to win by 1.92 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bayern Munich to score 1.77 goals and RB Leipzig to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the home team Bayern Munich to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.87

0-1

4.76

1

6.37

2-3

2.06

2

4.72

4+

3.28

3

3.66

Ov 1.5

1.27

4

5.18

Un 1.5

4.76

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.73

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

2.37

Gg

1.84

Ov 3.5

3.28

NoG

2.19

Un 3.5

1.44

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.04

3.96

3.89

2-3 goals

1.67

4.62

5.39

4+ goals

1.61

4.36

6.78

Ov 1.5

1.65

4.51

5.85

Un 1.5

2.04

3.96

3.89

Ov 2.5

1.45

8.26

5.30

Un 2.5

2.29

2.67

5.28

Ov 3.5

1.61

4.36

6.78

Un 3.5

1.77

4.40

4.83

Goal-Goal

1.99

3.11

5.67

No Goal

1.47

8.60

4.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.61

6.27

4.57

NG+Un 2.5

1.72

8.60

3.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Bielefeld vs Mainz at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bielefeld and Mainz for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bielefeld

2.85

2.25

9.4

Draw

3.51

3.91

-2.9

Mainz

2.47

3.34

-10.5

Over 2.5

1.75

1.80

-1.6

Under 2.5

2.13

2.25

-2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bielefeld (9.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bielefeld in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bielefeld in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance at home.
Bielefeld, at home, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bielefeld was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

RB Leipzig

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Leverkusen

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Union Berlin

A

0

5

L

O

N

31 Oct

Dortmund

H

0

2

L

U

N

25 Oct

Wolfsburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Bayern Munich

H

1

4

L

O

G

03 Oct

Werder Bremen

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Sep

FC Koln

H

1

0

W

U

N


Mainz in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mainz in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance as a guest.
Mainz, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Hoffenheim

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Freiburg

A

3

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Schalke 04

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Augsburg

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

M’gladbach

H

2

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

Leverkusen

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Oct

Union Berlin

A

0

4

L

O

N

26 Sep

Stuttgart

H

1

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bielefeld and the red line for guest team, Mainz.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bielefeld

22%

33%

17%

28%

Mainz

29%

34%

21%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.3 goals and Mainz to score 1.44 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.52 goals and Mainz to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

4.26

1

5.85

2-3

2.21

2

4.78

4+

3.22

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.46

Un 1.5

4.26

5

11.63

Ov 2.5

1.80

6+

23.81

Un 2.5

2.25

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

3.22

NoG

2.24

Un 3.5

1.45

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.45

3.67

3.13

2-3 goals

2.36

4.01

3.06

4+ goals

1.98

3.94

4.15

Ov 1.5

2.19

3.98

3.43

Un 1.5

2.45

3.67

3.13

Ov 2.5

1.86

7.03

3.14

Un 2.5

3.04

2.51

3.67

Ov 3.5

1.98

3.94

4.15

Un 3.5

2.39

3.89

3.09

Goal-Goal

2.55

2.88

3.84

No Goal

1.96

6.97

2.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.03

5.57

3.06

NG+Un 2.5

2.27

6.97

2.74


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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FC Koln vs Wolfsburg at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between FC Koln and Wolfsburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

FC Koln

3.61

3.36

2.1

Draw

3.52

3.92

-2.9

Wolfsburg

2.08

2.24

-3.4

Over 2.5

1.78

1.82

-1.2

Under 2.5

2.09

2.22

-2.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at FC Koln (2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

FC Koln in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, FC Koln in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance at home.
FC Koln, at home, had no wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 6.7% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Dortmund

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Union Berlin

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Nov

Werder Bremen

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Bayern Munich

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Oct

Stuttgart

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Ein Frankfurt

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Oct

M’gladbach

H

1

3

L

O

G

26 Sep

Bielefeld

A

0

1

L

U

N


Wolfsburg in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolfsburg in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolfsburg’s performance as a guest.
Wolfsburg, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolfsburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Werder Bremen

H

5

3

W

O

G

21 Nov

Schalke 04

A

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Hoffenheim

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Hertha

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Oct

Bielefeld

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

M’gladbach

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Augsburg

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Sep

Freiburg

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, FC Koln and the red line for guest team, Wolfsburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

FC Koln

30%

36%

14%

19%

Wolfsburg

23%

29%

24%

25%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Koln to score 1.09 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the guest team Wolfsburg to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Koln to score 1.21 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.5 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.15

1

5.85

2-3

2.20

2

4.81

4+

3.29

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.62

Un 1.5

4.15

5

12.66

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

21.28

Un 2.5

2.23

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.29

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.44

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-