# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Hertha vs Union Berlin at 04 December 2020**** Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig at 05 December 2020**** Bielefeld vs Mainz at 05 December 2020**** FC Koln vs Wolfsburg at 05 December 2020**** Freiburg vs M’gladbach at 05 December 2020**** Ein Frankfurt vs Dortmund at 05 December 2020**** Werder Bremen vs Stuttgart at 06 December 2020**** Schalke 04 vs Leverkusen at 06 December 2020**** Hoffenheim vs Augsburg at 07 December 2020**

###
Hertha vs Union Berlin at 04 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Hertha** and **Union Berlin** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **04 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Hertha |
2.45 |
2.87 |
-6.0 |

Draw |
3.35 |
3.98 |
-4.7 |

Union Berlin |
2.97 |
2.49 |
6.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.81 |
1.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.23 |
-6.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Union Berlin, Over 2.5 (6.5 %, 1.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Hertha** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hertha** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance** at home**.

Hertha,** at home**, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Nov |
Leverkusen |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Dortmund |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Augsburg |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Wolfsburg |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
RB Leipzig |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Stuttgart |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Bayern Munich |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Sep |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Union Berlin** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Union Berlin** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance** as a guest**.

Union Berlin,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
FC Koln |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Bielefeld |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Nov |
Hoffenheim |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Freiburg |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
Schalke 04 |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Oct |
Mainz |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

26 Sep |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Hertha** and the red line for guest team, **Union Berlin. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Hertha |
30% |
36% |
10% |
24% |

Union Berlin |
31% |
21% |
24% |
24% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Union Berlin** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Union Berlin** to score **1.4 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.64 |
0-1 |
3.70 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.32 |

2 |
5.62 |
4+ |
3.34 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.70 |

5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
17.24 |
Un 2.5 |
2.23 |

Gg |
2.08 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.34 |

NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.39 |
2.87 |
4.29 |

2-3 goals |
3.42 |
5.60 |
1.89 |

4+ goals |
2.77 |
3.69 |
2.72 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.12 |
4.62 |
2.16 |

Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
2.87 |
4.29 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.71 |
6.81 |
2.07 |

Un 2.5 |
3.13 |
2.62 |
3.34 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.77 |
3.69 |
2.72 |

Un 3.5 |
2.93 |
4.10 |
2.41 |

Goal-Goal |
3.76 |
3.04 |
2.47 |

No Goal |
2.37 |
5.52 |
2.52 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.16 |
4.99 |
2.07 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
5.52 |
2.77 |

####
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###
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bayern Munich** and **RB Leipzig** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bayern Munich |
1.44 |
1.71 |
-11.0 |

Draw |
5.17 |
4.39 |
3.4 |

RB Leipzig |
6.49 |
5.32 |
3.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.31 |
1.73 |
-18.5 |

Under 2.5 |
3.45 |
2.37 |
13.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, RB Leipzig, Under 2.5 (3.4 %, 3.4 %, 13.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bayern Munich** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bayern Munich** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bayern Munich’s performance** at home**.

Bayern Munich,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bayern Munich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Stuttgart |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Dortmund |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
FC Koln |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Oct |
Bielefeld |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Hertha |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Sep |
Hoffenheim |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**RB Leipzig** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **RB Leipzig** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, RB Leipzig** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at RB Leipzig’s performance** as a guest**.

RB Leipzig,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of RB Leipzig was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Bielefeld |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Freiburg |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
M’gladbach |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Hertha |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Augsburg |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Schalke 04 |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

26 Sep |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bayern Munich** and the red line for guest team, **RB Leipzig. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bayern Munich |
14% |
28% |
22% |
35% |

RB Leipzig |
36% |
37% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bayern Munich** to score **2.81 ** goals and **RB Leipzig** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.7** goals in the game and the home team **Bayern Munich ** to win by **1.92** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bayern Munich** to score **1.77 ** goals and **RB Leipzig** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.76** goals in the game and the home team **Bayern Munich ** to win by **0.78** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
18.87 |
0-1 |
4.76 |

1 |
6.37 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.72 |
4+ |
3.28 |

3 |
3.66 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.27 |

4 |
5.18 |
Un 1.5 |
4.76 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |

6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
2.37 |

Gg |
1.84 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.28 |

NoG |
2.19 |
Un 3.5 |
1.44 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.04 |
3.96 |
3.89 |

2-3 goals |
1.67 |
4.62 |
5.39 |

4+ goals |
1.61 |
4.36 |
6.78 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.65 |
4.51 |
5.85 |

Un 1.5 |
2.04 |
3.96 |
3.89 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.45 |
8.26 |
5.30 |

Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.67 |
5.28 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.61 |
4.36 |
6.78 |

Un 3.5 |
1.77 |
4.40 |
4.83 |

Goal-Goal |
1.99 |
3.11 |
5.67 |

No Goal |
1.47 |
8.60 |
4.90 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.61 |
6.27 |
4.57 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.72 |
8.60 |
3.96 |

####
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###
Bielefeld vs Mainz at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bielefeld** and **Mainz** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bielefeld |
2.85 |
2.25 |
9.4 |

Draw |
3.51 |
3.91 |
-2.9 |

Mainz |
2.47 |
3.34 |
-10.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.80 |
-1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.25 |
-2.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bielefeld (9.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bielefeld** in the **last six** matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bielefeld** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance** at home**.

Bielefeld,** at home**, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bielefeld was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
RB Leipzig |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Leverkusen |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Union Berlin |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Dortmund |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Wolfsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Werder Bremen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Sep |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Mainz** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mainz** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance** as a guest**.

Mainz,** as a guest**, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Nov |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Freiburg |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Schalke 04 |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Leverkusen |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Oct |
Union Berlin |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

26 Sep |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bielefeld** and the red line for guest team, **Mainz. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bielefeld |
22% |
33% |
17% |
28% |

Mainz |
29% |
34% |
21% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bielefeld** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Mainz** to score **1.44 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.14** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bielefeld** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Mainz** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
4.26 |

1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.21 |

2 |
4.78 |
4+ |
3.22 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.46 |
Un 1.5 |
4.26 |

5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |

6+ |
23.81 |
Un 2.5 |
2.25 |

Gg |
1.81 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.22 |

NoG |
2.24 |
Un 3.5 |
1.45 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.45 |
3.67 |
3.13 |

2-3 goals |
2.36 |
4.01 |
3.06 |

4+ goals |
1.98 |
3.94 |
4.15 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.98 |
3.43 |

Un 1.5 |
2.45 |
3.67 |
3.13 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
7.03 |
3.14 |

Un 2.5 |
3.04 |
2.51 |
3.67 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.98 |
3.94 |
4.15 |

Un 3.5 |
2.39 |
3.89 |
3.09 |

Goal-Goal |
2.55 |
2.88 |
3.84 |

No Goal |
1.96 |
6.97 |
2.90 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
5.57 |
3.06 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.27 |
6.97 |
2.74 |

####
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###
FC Koln vs Wolfsburg at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **FC Koln** and **Wolfsburg** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

FC Koln |
3.61 |
3.36 |
2.1 |

Draw |
3.52 |
3.92 |
-2.9 |

Wolfsburg |
2.08 |
2.24 |
-3.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.82 |
-1.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.09 |
2.22 |
-2.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **FC Koln (2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**FC Koln** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **FC Koln** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance** at home**.

FC Koln,** at home**, had no wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 6.7% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Dortmund |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Werder Bremen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Stuttgart |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Oct |
M’gladbach |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Wolfsburg** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolfsburg** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolfsburg’s performance** as a guest**.

Wolfsburg,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolfsburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Nov |
Werder Bremen |
H |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Schalke 04 |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Hoffenheim |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Hertha |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Oct |
Bielefeld |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
Augsburg |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **FC Koln** and the red line for guest team, **Wolfsburg. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

FC Koln |
30% |
36% |
14% |
19% |

Wolfsburg |
23% |
29% |
24% |
25% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **FC Koln** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Wolfsburg** to score **1.62 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the guest team **Wolfsburg ** to win by **0.53** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **FC Koln** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Wolfsburg** to score **1.5 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.15 |

1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.20 |

2 |
4.81 |
4+ |
3.29 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.62 |
Un 1.5 |
4.15 |

5 |
12.66 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
21.28 |
Un 2.5 |
2.23 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.29 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.44 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |