2020 12 04 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Barnsley vs Bournemouth at 04 December 2020
Brentford vs Blackburn at 05 December 2020
Preston vs Wycombe at 05 December 2020
Watford vs Cardiff at 05 December 2020
Swansea vs Luton at 05 December 2020
Stoke vs Middlesbrough at 05 December 2020
Reading vs Nott’m Forest at 05 December 2020
Norwich vs Sheffield Weds at 05 December 2020
Millwall vs Derby at 05 December 2020
Huddersfield vs QPR at 05 December 2020
Coventry vs Rotherham at 05 December 2020
Bristol City vs Birmingham at 05 December 2020


Barnsley vs Bournemouth at 04 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Barnsley and Bournemouth for Championship (England), which will take place on 04 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barnsley

3.46

2.65

8.8

Draw

3.31

3.77

-3.7

Bournemouth

2.17

2.80

-10.4

Over 2.5

2.01

2.08

-1.7

Under 2.5

1.82

1.92

-2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Barnsley (8.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barnsley in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnsley in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance at home.
Barnsley, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Birmingham

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Blackburn

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Brentford

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Nott’m Forest

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Derby

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Cardiff

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Oct

Watford

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

QPR

H

3

0

W

O

N


Bournemouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bournemouth in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance as a guest.
Bournemouth, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Preston

H

2

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Rotherham

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Nott’m Forest

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Reading

H

4

2

W

O

G

07 Nov

Birmingham

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Sheffield Weds

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Derby

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Oct

Bristol City

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barnsley and the red line for guest team, Bournemouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barnsley

31%

29%

23%

17%

Bournemouth

32%

30%

24%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.02 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.42 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the guest team Bournemouth to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.25 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.20

0-1

3.51

1

5.35

2-3

2.12

2

4.26

4+

4.13

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.51

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

4.13

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.03

2.91

3.06

2-3 goals

2.44

5.35

2.48

4+ goals

2.69

3.10

3.27

Ov 1.5

2.52

4.30

2.70

Un 1.5

3.03

2.91

3.06

Ov 2.5

2.27

6.13

2.53

Un 2.5

3.13

2.80

3.10

Ov 3.5

2.69

3.10

3.27

Un 3.5

2.63

4.06

2.67

Goal-Goal

2.97

2.83

3.23

No Goal

2.42

5.40

2.50

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.41

4.88

2.63

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

5.40

2.57


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Brentford vs Blackburn at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Brentford and Blackburn for Championship (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brentford

1.99

2.71

-13.4

Draw

3.46

3.69

-1.8

Blackburn

3.81

2.78

9.7

Over 2.5

1.94

2.11

-4.2

Under 2.5

1.88

1.90

-0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Blackburn (9.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brentford in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance at home.
Brentford, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Rotherham

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Nov

QPR

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Barnsley

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Wycombe

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Middlesbrough

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Nov

Swansea

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Luton

A

3

0

W

O

N

27 Oct

Norwich

H

1

1

D

U

G


Blackburn in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance as a guest.
Blackburn, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Millwall

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Barnsley

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Preston

A

3

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Luton

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

QPR

H

3

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Middlesbrough

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Swansea

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Oct

Reading

H

2

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brentford and the red line for guest team, Blackburn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brentford

28%

34%

24%

14%

Blackburn

30%

32%

26%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.54 goals and Blackburn to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Brentford to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.23 goals and Blackburn to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.62

1

5.24

2-3

2.04

2

3.98

4+

4.29

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.62

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.29

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.71

3.25

3.10

2-3 goals

2.63

4.59

2.49

4+ goals

2.91

2.99

3.11

Ov 1.5

2.71

3.91

2.66

Un 1.5

2.71

3.25

3.10

Ov 2.5

2.41

6.06

2.38

Un 2.5

3.05

2.74

3.25

Ov 3.5

2.91

2.99

3.11

Un 3.5

2.65

3.99

2.68

Goal-Goal

3.25

2.71

3.09

No Goal

2.32

5.87

2.51

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.56

5.05

2.43

NG+Un 2.5

2.43

5.87

2.59


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Preston vs Wycombe at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Preston and Wycombe for Championship (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Preston

1.78

1.95

-4.9

Draw

3.65

3.66

-0.1

Wycombe

4.59

4.72

-0.6

Over 2.5

2.02

2.16

-3.2

Under 2.5

1.81

1.86

-1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Preston in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance at home.
Preston, at home, had one win, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 14.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Bournemouth

A

3

2

W

O

G

28 Nov

Watford

A

1

4

L

O

G

24 Nov

Blackburn

H

0

3

L

O

N

21 Nov

Sheffield Weds

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Rotherham

A

1

2

L

O

G

04 Nov

Reading

A

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Birmingham

H

1

2

L

O

G

28 Oct

Millwall

H

0

2

L

U

N


Wycombe in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance as a guest.
Wycombe, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Stoke

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Derby

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Huddersfield

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Brentford

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Nott’m Forest

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Nov

Birmingham

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Sheffield Weds

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Watford

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Preston and the red line for guest team, Wycombe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Preston

17%

38%

25%

21%

Wycombe

35%

43%

14%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Preston to score 1.61 goals and Wycombe to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Preston to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Preston to score 1.49 goals and Wycombe to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Preston to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.67

0-1

3.77

1

4.88

2-3

1.93

2

3.66

4+

4.61

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.77

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.02

4.42

3.58

2-3 goals

1.95

3.18

5.82

4+ goals

1.84

4.34

4.43

Ov 1.5

1.91

3.45

5.33

Un 1.5

2.02

4.42

3.58

Ov 2.5

1.55

9.24

4.05

Un 2.5

2.48

2.41

5.49

Ov 3.5

1.84

4.34

4.43

Un 3.5

1.97

3.51

4.80

Goal-Goal

2.39

2.54

5.35

No Goal

1.59

7.67

4.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.67

7.54

3.73

NG+Un 2.5

1.73

7.67

3.83


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Watford vs Cardiff at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Watford and Cardiff for Championship (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Watford

2.09

2.06

0.7

Draw

3.31

3.76

-3.6

Cardiff

3.66

4.02

-2.4

Over 2.5

2.16

2.12

0.9

Under 2.5

1.71

1.89

-5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Watford, Over 2.5 (0.7 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Watford in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance at home.
Watford, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 19 points, 90.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Nott’m Forest

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Preston

H

4

1

W

O

G

25 Nov

Bristol City

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

QPR

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Coventry

H

3

2

W

O

G

04 Nov

Stoke

H

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Barnsley

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Oct

Wycombe

A

1

1

D

U

G


Cardiff in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cardiff in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance as a guest.
Cardiff, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Huddersfield

H

3

0

W

O

N

28 Nov

Luton

H

4

0

W

O

N

25 Nov

Coventry

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Millwall

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

Bristol City

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Barnsley

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

QPR

A

2

3

L

O

G

28 Oct

Derby

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, Cardiff.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Watford

22%

33%

25%

20%

Cardiff

34%

40%

15%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 1.38 goals and Cardiff to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 1.44 goals and Cardiff to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.62

1

4.98

2-3

2.02

2

3.95

4+

4.37

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.62

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.42

3.68

3.17