2020 12 04 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Aldershot vs Dag and Red at 05 December 2020
Torquay vs Wrexham at 05 December 2020
Sutton vs Solihull at 05 December 2020
Notts County vs Woking at 05 December 2020
Eastleigh vs Maidenhead at 05 December 2020
Hartlepool vs Boreham Wood at 05 December 2020
Altrincham vs King’s Lynn at 05 December 2020
Weymouth vs Halifax at 05 December 2020
Barnet vs Wealdstone at 05 December 2020
Bromley vs Stockport at 05 December 2020


Aldershot vs Dag and Red at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Aldershot and Dag and Red for Conference (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aldershot

2.17

2.04

2.9

Draw

3.42

3.91

-3.7

Dag and Red

3.11

3.91

-6.6

Over 2.5

1.88

1.95

-1.9

Under 2.5

1.91

2.05

-3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aldershot (2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aldershot in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aldershot in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Aldershot’s performance at home.
Aldershot, at home, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aldershot was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Chesterfield

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Wrexham

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Nov

Maidenhead

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Nov

Altrincham

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Notts County

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Torquay

H

1

4

L

O

G

17 Oct

Eastleigh

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Oct

Dover Athletic

A

5

0

W

O

N


Dag and Red in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance as a guest.
Dag and Red, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Notts County

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Nov

Sutton

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Nov

Boreham Wood

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Maidenhead

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Yeovil

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Oct

Woking

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Oct

Wealdstone

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Oct

Barnet

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aldershot and the red line for guest team, Dag and Red.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aldershot

21%

31%

26%

23%

Dag and Red

34%

36%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aldershot to score 1.44 goals and Dag and Red to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Aldershot to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aldershot to score 1.51 goals and Dag and Red to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Aldershot to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

4.03

1

5.59

2-3

2.03

2

4.17

4+

3.85

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.03

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.05

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.85

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.38

3.59

3.31

2-3 goals

1.93

4.36

3.94

4+ goals

2.00

3.47

4.73

Ov 1.5

1.96

4.01

4.18

Un 1.5

2.38

3.59

3.31

Ov 2.5

1.71

6.84

3.72

Un 2.5

2.58

2.68

4.17

Ov 3.5

2.00

3.47

4.73

Un 3.5

2.06

4.07

3.70

Goal-Goal

2.37

2.81

4.48

No Goal

1.77

6.84

3.45

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.87

5.55

3.53

NG+Un 2.5

1.98

6.84

3.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Torquay vs Wrexham at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Torquay and Wrexham for Conference (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torquay

2.03

1.94

2.3

Draw

3.46

4.05

-4.2

Wrexham

3.37

4.22

-6.0

Over 2.5

1.84

1.95

-3.1

Under 2.5

1.94

2.05

-2.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Torquay (2.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torquay in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance at home.
Torquay, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Wealdstone

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Halifax

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Boreham Wood

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Hartlepool

A

5

0

W

O

N

27 Oct

Aldershot

A

4

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Dover Athletic

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Oct

Chesterfield

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Oct

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G


Wrexham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance as a guest.
Wrexham, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Bromley

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Sutton

H

4

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Aldershot

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Hartlepool

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Barnet

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Wealdstone

A

3

4

L

O

G

12 Oct

Maidenhead

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torquay and the red line for guest team, Wrexham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torquay

23%

26%

26%

26%

Wrexham

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.53 goals and Wrexham to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.54 goals and Wrexham to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.88

1

5.68

2-3

2.06

2

4.33

4+

3.91

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.06

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.80

3.15

3.07

2-3 goals

1.72

5.17

4.42

4+ goals

1.80

3.61

5.95

Ov 1.5

1.75

4.50

4.85

Un 1.5

2.80

3.15

3.07

Ov 2.5

1.55

7.20

4.65

Un 2.5

2.63

2.78

3.85

Ov 3.5

1.80

3.61

5.95

Un 3.5

1.99

4.23

3.84

Goal-Goal

2.07

3.00

5.44

No Goal

1.82

6.16

3.46

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.68

5.65

4.41

NG+Un 2.5

2.12

6.16

3.11


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sutton vs Solihull at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sutton and Solihull for Conference (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sutton

2.43

2.23

3.7

Draw

3.34

3.79

-3.6

Solihull

2.66

3.47

-8.8

Over 2.5

1.91

1.98

-1.9

Under 2.5

1.86

2.02

-4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sutton (3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sutton in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance at home.
Sutton, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Woking

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Halifax

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Wrexham

A

0

4

L

O

N

21 Nov

Wealdstone

A

3

3

D

O

G

17 Nov

Dag and Red

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

King’s Lynn

H

5

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Yeovil

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Oct

Notts County

H

0

1

L

U

N


Solihull in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Solihull in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance as a guest.
Solihull, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Solihull was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Hartlepool

H

2

0

W

U

N

11 Nov

Altrincham

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Maidenhead

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Oct

Stockport

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Boreham Wood

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Oct

King’s Lynn

H

5

0

W

O

N

06 Oct

Wrexham

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Woking

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sutton and the red line for guest team, Solihull.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sutton

22%

33%

25%

20%

Solihull

31%

36%

22%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.3 goals and Solihull to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.43 goals and Solihull to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

4.00

1

5.49

2-3

2.04

2

4.12

4+

3.89

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.00

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.40

3.68

3.21

2-3 goals

2.15

4.13

3.41

4+ goals

2.23

3.38

3.89

Ov 1.5

2.18

3.84

3.56

Un 1.5

2.40

3.68

3.21

Ov 2.5

1.90

6.64

3.10

Un 2.5

2.72

2.64

3.94

Ov 3.5

2.23

3.38

3.89

Un 3.5

2.23

3.96

3.34

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.75

3.88

No Goal

1.89

6.79

3.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.49

3.02

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

6.79

2.99


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Notts County vs Woking at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Notts County and Woking for Conference (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Notts County

1.56

2.03

-14.8

Draw

4.08

3.98

0.6

Woking

5.26

3.91

6.6

Over 2.5

1.74

1.97

-6.7

Under 2.5

2.08

2.03

1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Woking, Under 2.5 (0.6 %, 6.6 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Notts County in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance at home.
Notts County, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Dag and Red

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Nov

Wealdstone

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Chesterfield

A

3

2

W

O

G

17 Nov

Halifax

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Aldershot

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Maidenhead

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Oct

Sutton

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Oct

Barnet

H

4

2

W

O

G


Woking in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance as a guest.
Woking, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Sutton

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Barnet

H

4

1

W

O

G

17 Nov

Dover Athletic

A

5

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Yeovil

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

King’s Lynn

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Oct

Boreham Wood

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Halifax

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Oct

Dag and Red

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Notts County and the red line for guest team, Woking.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Notts County

24%

25%

26%

24%

Woking

35%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.94 goals and Woking to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and the home team Notts County to win by 1.15 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.5 goals and Woking to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Notts County to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.80

1

5.62

2-3

2.07

2

4.33

4+

3.89

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.80

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.99

3.09

2.92

2-3 goals

1.79

5.18

4.02