# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Emmen at 04 December 2020**** Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo at 05 December 2020**** Zwolle vs Vitesse at 05 December 2020**** For Sittard vs Willem II at 05 December 2020**** Ajax vs Twente at 05 December 2020**** Utrecht vs Den Haag at 06 December 2020**** Feyenoord vs Heracles at 06 December 2020**** Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven at 06 December 2020**** AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen at 06 December 2020**

###
Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Emmen at 04 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sparta Rotterdam** and **FC Emmen** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **04 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sparta Rotterdam |
1.68 |
1.88 |
-6.3 |

Draw |
4.17 |
4.12 |
0.3 |

FC Emmen |
4.51 |
4.41 |
0.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.60 |
1.92 |
-10.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.08 |
6.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, FC Emmen, Under 2.5 (0.3 %, 0.5 %, 6.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance** at home**.

Sparta Rotterdam,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Nov |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Den Haag |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

07 Nov |
Waalwijk |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Heracles |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
Feyenoord |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
4 |
4 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Zwolle |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

**FC Emmen** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Emmen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance** as a guest**.

FC Emmen,** as a guest**, had no wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 6.7% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

22 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
For Sittard |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Twente |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Sep |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sparta Rotterdam** and the red line for guest team, **FC Emmen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sparta Rotterdam |
21% |
25% |
28% |
26% |

FC Emmen |
36% |
38% |
17% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **2.01 ** goals and **FC Emmen** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.97** goals in the game and the home team **Sparta Rotterdam ** to win by **1.05** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **1.58 ** goals and **FC Emmen** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the home team **Sparta Rotterdam ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
4.03 |

1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
3.88 |

3 |
3.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.73 |
3.22 |
3.10 |

2-3 goals |
1.64 |
5.19 |
5.03 |

4+ goals |
1.86 |
3.69 |
5.27 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.71 |
4.55 |
5.11 |

Un 1.5 |
2.73 |
3.22 |
3.10 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
7.41 |
4.68 |

Un 2.5 |
2.50 |
2.79 |
4.14 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.86 |
3.69 |
5.27 |

Un 3.5 |
1.90 |
4.31 |
4.16 |

Goal-Goal |
2.05 |
3.04 |
5.46 |

No Goal |
1.74 |
6.45 |
3.68 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
5.81 |
4.42 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.45 |
3.32 |

####
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###
Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Waalwijk** and **VVV Venlo** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Waalwijk |
2.41 |
2.60 |
-3.0 |

Draw |
3.58 |
3.51 |
0.6 |

VVV Venlo |
2.72 |
3.03 |
-3.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.97 |
-9.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.03 |
5.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Under 2.5 (0.6 %, 5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** at home**.

Waalwijk,** at home**, had no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Nov |
Twente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Oct |
Zwolle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Heracles |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**VVV Venlo** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **VVV Venlo** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance** as a guest**.

VVV Venlo,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Zwolle |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Willem II |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Heracles |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
13 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Oct |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Waalwijk** and the red line for guest team, **VVV Venlo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Waalwijk |
23% |
38% |
19% |
20% |

VVV Venlo |
21% |
45% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Waalwijk** to score **1.5 ** goals and **VVV Venlo** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.87** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Waalwijk** to score **1.37 ** goals and **VVV Venlo** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
20.41 |
0-1 |
4.27 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
3.66 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.56 |
Un 1.5 |
4.27 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
37.04 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.65 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.66 |

NoG |
2.53 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.89 |
4.78 |
2.25 |

2-3 goals |
2.88 |
2.88 |
3.26 |

4+ goals |
2.05 |
4.20 |
3.64 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.25 |
3.39 |

Un 1.5 |
2.89 |
4.78 |
2.25 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
7.82 |
2.82 |

Un 2.5 |
4.03 |
2.24 |
3.28 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.05 |
4.20 |
3.64 |

Un 3.5 |
2.88 |
3.30 |
2.85 |

Goal-Goal |
2.76 |
2.56 |
4.03 |

No Goal |
2.38 |
8.06 |
2.19 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
6.68 |
2.89 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.63 |
8.06 |
2.14 |

####
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###
Zwolle vs Vitesse at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Zwolle** and **Vitesse** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Zwolle |
3.74 |
3.47 |
2.1 |

Draw |
3.70 |
3.73 |
-0.2 |

Vitesse |
1.92 |
2.25 |
-7.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.55 |
5.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.81 |
-9.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Zwolle, Over 2.5 (2.1 %, 5.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** at home**.

Zwolle,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
VVV Venlo |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Nov |
For Sittard |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Twente |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Willem II |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Oct |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

26 Sep |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Vitesse** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vitesse** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance** as a guest**.

Vitesse,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Nov |
For Sittard |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
FC Emmen |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Den Haag |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Heracles |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

26 Sep |
Ajax |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Zwolle** and the red line for guest team, **Vitesse. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Zwolle |
22% |
39% |
15% |
24% |

Vitesse |
12% |
35% |
25% |
29% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Vitesse** to score **1.74 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.81** goals in the game and the guest team **Vitesse ** to win by **0.67** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Vitesse** to score **1.7 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **3.11** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
38.46 |
0-1 |
6.76 |

1 |
8.20 |
2-3 |
2.24 |

2 |
4.83 |
4+ |
2.47 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.18 |

4 |
4.29 |
Un 1.5 |
6.76 |

5 |
9.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.55 |

6+ |
14.49 |
Un 2.5 |
2.82 |

Gg |
1.45 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.47 |

NoG |
3.23 |
Un 3.5 |
1.68 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.29 |
5.69 |
1.92 |

2-3 goals |
4.60 |
3.28 |
2.09 |

4+ goals |
2.79 |
3.82 |
2.63 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.52 |
3.52 |
2.32 |

Un 1.5 |
3.29 |
5.69 |
1.92 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.86 |
6.08 |
2.06 |

Un 2.5 |
5.73 |
2.19 |
2.71 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.79 |
3.82 |
2.63 |

Un 3.5 |
4.18 |
3.67 |
2.05 |

Goal-Goal |
3.50 |
2.85 |
2.76 |

No Goal |
3.44 |
11.92 |
1.60 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.81 |
5.22 |
2.21 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.53 |
11.92 |
1.67 |

####
Go to Top

###
For Sittard vs Willem II at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **For Sittard** and **Willem II** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

For Sittard |
2.92 |
2.17 |
11.8 |

Draw |
3.70 |
3.88 |
-1.3 |

Willem II |
2.24 |
3.56 |
-16.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.86 |
-8.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.30 |
2.16 |
2.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **For Sittard, Under 2.5 (11.8 %, 2.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**For Sittard** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **For Sittard** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance** at home**.

For Sittard,** at home**, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Nov |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Feyenoord |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Zwolle |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Groningen |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
FC Emmen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Sep |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

**Willem II** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Willem II** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance** as a guest**.

Willem II,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Nov |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
VVV Venlo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Vitesse |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Zwolle |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Twente |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Oct |
Feyenoord |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Sep |
FC Emmen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **For Sittard** and the red line for guest team, **Willem II. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

For Sittard |
21% |
34% |
20% |
26% |

Willem II |
31% |
36% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **For Sittard** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Willem II** to score **1.61 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.93** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.29** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **For Sittard** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Willem II** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and the home team **For Sittard ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
4.15 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.15 |

2 |
4.52 |
4+ |
3.42 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.62 |
Un 1.5 |
4.15 |

5 |
12.66 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |

6+ |
28.57 |
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |

Gg |
1.82 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.42 |

NoG |
2.22 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |