2020 12 04 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Emmen at 04 December 2020
Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo at 05 December 2020
Zwolle vs Vitesse at 05 December 2020
For Sittard vs Willem II at 05 December 2020
Ajax vs Twente at 05 December 2020
Utrecht vs Den Haag at 06 December 2020
Feyenoord vs Heracles at 06 December 2020
Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven at 06 December 2020
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen at 06 December 2020


Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Emmen at 04 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sparta Rotterdam and FC Emmen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 04 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sparta Rotterdam

1.68

1.88

-6.3

Draw

4.17

4.12

0.3

FC Emmen

4.51

4.41

0.5

Over 2.5

1.60

1.92

-10.4

Under 2.5

2.38

2.08

6.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, FC Emmen, Under 2.5 (0.3 %, 0.5 %, 6.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sparta Rotterdam in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sparta Rotterdam in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance at home.
Sparta Rotterdam, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Den Haag

H

6

0

W

O

N

07 Nov

Waalwijk

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Heerenveen

H

1

4

L

O

G

25 Oct

Heracles

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Feyenoord

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

AZ Alkmaar

H

4

4

D

O

G

26 Sep

Zwolle

A

0

4

L

O

N


FC Emmen in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Emmen in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance as a guest.
FC Emmen, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 6.7% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Ajax

H

0

5

L

O

N

22 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Vitesse

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Feyenoord

H

2

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Heerenveen

A

0

4

L

O

N

18 Oct

For Sittard

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Twente

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Sep

Willem II

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sparta Rotterdam and the red line for guest team, FC Emmen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sparta Rotterdam

21%

25%

28%

26%

FC Emmen

36%

38%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 2.01 goals and FC Emmen to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.97 goals in the game and the home team Sparta Rotterdam to win by 1.05 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.58 goals and FC Emmen to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Sparta Rotterdam to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

4.03

1

5.85

2-3

2.03

2

4.31

4+

3.88

3

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.02

Un 1.5

4.03

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.73

3.22

3.10

2-3 goals

1.64

5.19

5.03

4+ goals

1.86

3.69

5.27

Ov 1.5

1.71

4.55

5.11

Un 1.5

2.73

3.22

3.10

Ov 2.5

1.54

7.41

4.68

Un 2.5

2.50

2.79

4.14

Ov 3.5

1.86

3.69

5.27

Un 3.5

1.90

4.31

4.16

Goal-Goal

2.05

3.04

5.46

No Goal

1.74

6.45

3.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.66

5.81

4.42

NG+Un 2.5

2.01

6.45

3.32


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Waalwijk and VVV Venlo for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Waalwijk

2.41

2.60

-3.0

Draw

3.58

3.51

0.6

VVV Venlo

2.72

3.03

-3.8

Over 2.5

1.66

1.97

-9.5

Under 2.5

2.26

2.03

5.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (0.6 %, 5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Waalwijk in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance at home.
Waalwijk, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Twente

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Heerenveen

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Sparta Rotterdam

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

A

0

3

L

O

N

25 Oct

Feyenoord

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Oct

Zwolle

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Heracles

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Utrecht

A

1

3

L

O

G


VVV Venlo in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, VVV Venlo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance as a guest.
VVV Venlo, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Zwolle

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Willem II

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Heracles

H

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Groningen

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Ajax

H

0

13

L

O

N

17 Oct

AZ Alkmaar

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Den Haag

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Sep

Heerenveen

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Waalwijk and the red line for guest team, VVV Venlo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Waalwijk

23%

38%

19%

20%

VVV Venlo

21%

45%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.5 goals and VVV Venlo to score 1.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.87 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.37 goals and VVV Venlo to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

20.41

0-1

4.27

1

5.41

2-3

2.03

2

3.88

4+

3.66

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.56

Un 1.5

4.27

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.65

Ov 3.5

3.66

NoG

2.53

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.89

4.78

2.25

2-3 goals

2.88

2.88

3.26

4+ goals

2.05

4.20

3.64

Ov 1.5

2.52

3.25

3.39

Un 1.5

2.89

4.78

2.25

Ov 2.5

1.93

7.82

2.82

Un 2.5

4.03

2.24

3.28

Ov 3.5

2.05

4.20

3.64

Un 3.5

2.88

3.30

2.85

Goal-Goal

2.76

2.56

4.03

No Goal

2.38

8.06

2.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

6.68

2.89

NG+Un 2.5

2.63

8.06

2.14


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Zwolle vs Vitesse at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Zwolle and Vitesse for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Zwolle

3.74

3.47

2.1

Draw

3.70

3.73

-0.2

Vitesse

1.92

2.25

-7.6

Over 2.5

1.70

1.55

5.7

Under 2.5

2.20

2.81

-9.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Zwolle, Over 2.5 (2.1 %, 5.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Zwolle in the last six matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance at home.
Zwolle, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

VVV Venlo

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Utrecht

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

For Sittard

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Twente

A

1

5

L

O

G

24 Oct

Willem II

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Oct

Waalwijk

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

PSV Eindhoven

H

0

3

L

O

N

26 Sep

Sparta Rotterdam

H

4

0

W

O

N


Vitesse in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vitesse in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance as a guest.
Vitesse, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

For Sittard

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Groningen

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

FC Emmen

H

3

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Willem II

A

3

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

PSV Eindhoven

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

Den Haag

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Heracles

H

3

0

W

O

N

26 Sep

Ajax

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zwolle and the red line for guest team, Vitesse.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Zwolle

22%

39%

15%

24%

Vitesse

12%

35%

25%

29%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.07 goals and Vitesse to score 1.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and the guest team Vitesse to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.41 goals and Vitesse to score 1.7 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

38.46

0-1

6.76

1

8.20

2-3

2.24

2

4.83

4+

2.47

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.18

4

4.29

Un 1.5

6.76

5

9.71

Ov 2.5

1.55

6+

14.49

Un 2.5

2.82

Gg

1.45

Ov 3.5

2.47

NoG

3.23

Un 3.5

1.68

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.29

5.69

1.92

2-3 goals

4.60

3.28

2.09

4+ goals

2.79

3.82

2.63

Ov 1.5

3.52

3.52

2.32

Un 1.5

3.29

5.69

1.92

Ov 2.5

2.86

6.08

2.06

Un 2.5

5.73

2.19

2.71

Ov 3.5

2.79

3.82

2.63

Un 3.5

4.18

3.67

2.05

Goal-Goal

3.50

2.85

2.76

No Goal

3.44

11.92

1.60

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.81

5.22

2.21

NG+Un 2.5

3.53

11.92

1.67


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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For Sittard vs Willem II at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between For Sittard and Willem II for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

For Sittard

2.92

2.17

11.8

Draw

3.70

3.88

-1.3

Willem II

2.24

3.56

-16.6

Over 2.5

1.61

1.86

-8.3

Under 2.5

2.30

2.16

2.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at For Sittard, Under 2.5 (11.8 %, 2.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

For Sittard in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, For Sittard in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance at home.
For Sittard, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Vitesse

A

0

2

L

U

N

22 Nov

Feyenoord

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Nov

Zwolle

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Ajax

A

2

5

L

O

G

25 Oct

Groningen

H

1

3

L

O

G

18 Oct

FC Emmen

A

2

2

D

O

G

04 Oct

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Sep

AZ Alkmaar

H

3

3

D

O

G


Willem II in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Willem II in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance as a guest.
Willem II, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Groningen

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

VVV Venlo

H

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Oct

Vitesse

H

1

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Zwolle

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Twente

H

0

3

L

O

N

04 Oct

Feyenoord

H

1

4

L

O

G

27 Sep

FC Emmen

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, For Sittard and the red line for guest team, Willem II.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

For Sittard

21%

34%

20%

26%

Willem II

31%

36%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.32 goals and Willem II to score 1.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.93 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.52 goals and Willem II to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team For Sittard to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

4.15

1

5.65

2-3

2.15

2

4.52

4+

3.42

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.62

Un 1.5

4.15

5

12.66

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

28.57

Un 2.5

2.16

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.42

NoG

2.22

Un 3.5

1.41

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-