2020 12 04 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Brescia vs Fortitudo Bologna at 05 December 2020
Reyer Venezia vs Trento at 06 December 2020
Reggiana vs Vanoli Cremona at 06 December 2020
Varese vs Olimpia Milano at 06 December 2020
Brindisi vs Cantu at 06 December 2020
Virtus Bologna vs Sassari at 06 December 2020
Universo Treviso vs Victoria Libertas Pesaro at 06 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Brescia vs Fortitudo Bologna at 06 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Brescia and Fortitudo Bologna for Serie A, which will take place on 06 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Brescia

1.39

3.48

Fortitudo Bologna

3

1.40

Brescia HC

-6.5

6.00

Fortitudo Bologna HC

+6.5

-6.00

Point Line

160.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brescia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

A

Enel Brindisi

L

71

74

2

7

L 5

74

68

Nov 15

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

73

80

2

6

L 4

75

82

Nov 8

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

56

87

2

5

L 3

65

79

Oct 31

H

Virtus Roma

L

64

70

2

4

L 2

59

75

Oct 24

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

67

83

2

3

L 1

71

85

Oct 18

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

75

63

2

2

W 2

78

67

Oct 11

A

Universo Treviso

W

94

87

1

2

W 1

82

85

Oct 4

H

Virtus Bologna

L

80

81

0

2

L 1

82

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fortitudo Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

H

Virtus Bologna

L

71

91

1

7

L 5

73

88

Nov 7

H

Universo Treviso

L

87

98

1

6

L 4

76

96

Nov 1

A

Enel Brindisi

L

74

100

1

5

L 3

78

92

Oct 25

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

71

82

1

4

L 2

82

74

Oct 18

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

86

89

1

3

L 1

81

81

Oct 10

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

93

70

1

2

W 1

95

72

Oct 4

H

Openjobmetis Varese

L

83

88

0

2

L 1

78

87

Sep 27

A

Virtus Roma

L

76

81

0

1

L 0

70

87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brescia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fortitudo Bologna.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fortitudo Bologna and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brescia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Brescia (in the first graph) and by Fortitudo Bologna in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Brescia will expected to score 79 points and the Fortitudo Bologna 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Brescia

Fortitudo Bologna

FG%

0.50

0.52

ASS

16.20

17.60

DRB

25.10

21.30

AST-TO

1.27

1.41

TRB

32.70

29.90

FTM

10.90

11.40

BL

1.10

3.60

FTA

12.90

17.40

PF-Fewer

19.40

20.50

ST

6.70

9.00

TO-Fewer

12.80

12.50

Ftper

0.84

0.66

ORBper

0.30

0.40

ORB

7.60

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Reyer Venezia vs Trento at 06 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Reyer Venezia and Trento for Serie A, which will take place on 06 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Reyer Venezia

1.39

1.90

Trento

3

2.11

Reyer Venezia HC

-6.5

-1.50

Trento HC

+6.5

1.50

Point Line

156.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reyer Venezia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

72

86

5

3

L 1

84

78

Nov 8

A

Virtus Roma

W

89

71

5

2

W 1

82

76

Nov 1

H

Virtus Bologna

L

68

83

4

2

L 1

70

80

Oct 25

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

99

92

4

1

W 2

93

84

Oct 18

A

Red October Cantu

W

75

67

3

1

W 1

74

68

Oct 11

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

72

90

2

1

L 1

76

90

Oct 4

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

83

66

2

0

W 1

77

66

Sep 27

H

Enel Brindisi

W

75

67

1

0

W 0

79

62

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Trento are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

H

Openjobmetis Varese

L

74

77

4

5

L 1

70

76

Nov 15

A

Germani Basket Brescia

W

80

73

4

4

W 2

82

79

Nov 7

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

92

78

3

4

W 1

86

71

Nov 1

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

75

82

2

4

L 1

87

74

Oct 25

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

85

83

2

3

W 2

79

82

Oct 17

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

71

57

1

3

W 1

75

57

Oct 10

A

Fortitudo Bologna

L

70

93

0

3

L 2

65

94

Oct 3

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

81

87

0

2

L 1

85

89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reyer Venezia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Trento.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Trento and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reyer Venezia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Reyer Venezia (in the first graph) and by Trento in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Reyer Venezia will expected to score 79 points and the Trento 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Reyer Venezia

Trento

FG%

0.53

0.52

ASS

17.30

15.80

DRB

22.50

23.00

AST-TO

1.25

1.19

TRB

30.10

33.60

FTM

12.00

10.00

BL

2.30

1.80

FTA

16.10

14.90

PF-Fewer

21.80

20.10

ST

7.10

7.70

TO-Fewer

13.80

13.30

Ftper

0.74

0.67

ORBper

0.34

0.46

ORB

7.60

10.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Reggiana vs Vanoli Cremona at 06 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Reggiana and Vanoli Cremona for Serie A, which will take place on 06 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Reggiana

1.32

1.94

Vanoli Cremona

3.4

2.06

Reggiana HC

-7.5

-1.50

Vanoli Cremona HC

+7.5

1.50

Point Line

160.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reggiana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 3

H

Universo Treviso

W

98

74

4

3

W 1

85

73

Nov 22

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

63

84

3

3

L 1

67

84

Oct 24

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

83

67

3

2

W 2

85

73

Oct 18

A

Virtus Bologna

W

77

67

2

2

W 1

79

65

Oct 11

H

Enel Brindisi

L

76

80

1

2

L 1

80

74

Oct 3

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

87

81

1

1

W 1

89

83

Sep 27

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

71

87

0

1

L 0

82

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Vanoli Cremona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 1

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

83

95

2

4

L 2

88

95

Oct 25

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

83

85

2

3

L 1

85

88

Oct 17

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

80

67

2

2

W 2

75

66

Oct 10

A

Virtus Bologna

W

95

92

1

2

W 1

98

89

Oct 4

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

66

83

0

2

L 1

69

85

Sep 27

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

77

102

0

1

L 0

80

108

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reggiana and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Vanoli Cremona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Vanoli Cremona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reggiana.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Reggiana (in the first graph) and by Vanoli Cremona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Reggiana will expected to score 85 points and the Vanoli Cremona 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Reggiana

Vanoli Cremona

FG%

0.53

0.49

ASS

15.30

13.50

DRB

25.40

26.20

AST-TO

1.03

1.32

TRB

33.60

36.70

FTM

16.90

15.20

BL

2.40

1.80

FTA

20.70

20.00

PF-Fewer

20.30

18.50

ST

7.00

5.30

TO-Fewer

14.90

10.20

Ftper

0.81

0.76

ORBper

0.32

0.40

ORB

8.10

10.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Varese vs Olimpia Milano at 06 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Varese and Olimpia Milano for Serie A, which will take place on 06 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Varese

6.75

3.90

Olimpia Milano

1.11

1.34

Varese HC

+12.5

7.00

Olimpia Milano HC

-12.5

-7.00

Point Line

161.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Varese are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

77

74

4

5

W 2

79

76

Nov 15

H

Virtus Roma

W

98

88

3

5

W 1

90

95

Nov 8

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

78

85

2

5

L 5

83

85

Nov 1

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

82

104

2

4

L 4

77

94

Oct 24

H

Virtus Bologna

L

73

85

2

3

L 3

75

82

Oct 17

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

67

80

2

2

L 2

62

79

Oct 11

H

Red October Cantu

L

80

90

2

1

L 1

79

92

Oct 4

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

88

83

2

0

W 1

82

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

86

72

9

0

W 8

90

74

Nov 15

A

Red October Cantu

W

89

71

8

0

W 7

88

72

Nov 8

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

87

56

7

0

W 6

89

61

Nov 1

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

82

75

6

0

W 5

84

77

Oct 25

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

82

71

5

0

W 4

76

72

Oct 18

H

Virtus Roma

W

93

71

4

0

W 3

86

76

Oct 11

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

87

65

3

0

W 2

91

69

Oct 4

H

Universo Treviso

W

104

64

2

0

W 1

90

63

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Varese and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Varese.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Varese (in the first graph) and by Olimpia Milano in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Varese will expected to score 76 points and the Olimpia Milano 87 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Varese

Olimpia Milano

FG%

0.52

0.57

ASS

15.70

18.90

DRB

24.40

26.40

AST-TO

1.17

2.20

TRB

33.40

34.40

FTM

15.00

14.60

BL

1.60

2.90

FTA

20.30

18.10

PF-Fewer

21.90

17.20

ST

6.10

7.90

TO-Fewer

13.40

8.60

Ftper

0.74

0.80

ORBper

0.37

0.30

ORB

9.00

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Brindisi vs Cantu at 06 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Brindisi and Cantu for Serie A, which will take place on 06 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Brindisi

1.32

1.85

Cantu

3.4

2.17

Brindisi HC

-7.5

-2.00

Cantu HC

+7.5

2.00

Point Line

161.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brindisi are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

74

71

8

1

W 8

75

77

Nov 15

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

100

87

7

1

W 7

94

79

Nov 7

A

Virtus Bologna

W

98

88

6

1

W 6

101

85

Nov 1

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

100

74

5

1

W 5

93

75

Oct 25

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

79

76

4

1

W 4

82

81

Oct 18

H

Universo Treviso

W

99

83

3

1

W 3

86

81

Oct 11

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

80

76

2

1