2020 12 04 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ath Bilbao vs Celta at 04 December 2020
Levante vs Getafe at 05 December 2020
Sevilla vs Real Madrid at 05 December 2020
Ath Madrid vs Valladolid at 05 December 2020
Cadiz vs Barcelona at 05 December 2020
Osasuna vs Betis at 06 December 2020
Granada vs Huesca at 06 December 2020
Villarreal vs Elche at 06 December 2020
Alaves vs Sociedad at 06 December 2020
Eibar vs Valencia at 07 December 2020


Ath Bilbao vs Celta at 04 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Ath Bilbao and Celta for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 04 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ath Bilbao

2.25

1.86

9.3

Draw

3.24

4.08

-6.4

Celta

3.45

4.61

-7.3

Over 2.5

2.27

2.02

5.5

Under 2.5

1.65

1.98

-10.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ath Bilbao, Over 2.5 (9.3 %, 5.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ath Bilbao in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Bilbao in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance at home.
Ath Bilbao, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Getafe

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Nov

Betis

H

4

0

W

O

N

08 Nov

Valladolid

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Sevilla

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Osasuna

A

0

1

L

U

N

18 Oct

Levante

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Oct

Alaves

A

0

1

L

U

N

01 Oct

Cadiz

H

0

1

L

U

N


Celta in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Celta in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Celta’s performance as a guest.
Celta, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Celta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Granada

H

3

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Sevilla

A

2

4

L

O

G

06 Nov

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Sociedad

H

1

4

L

O

G

26 Oct

Levante

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Ath Madrid

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Oct

Osasuna

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Oct

Barcelona

H

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ath Bilbao and the red line for guest team, Celta.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ath Bilbao

19%

31%

24%

26%

Celta

41%

33%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.28 goals and Celta to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.56 goals and Celta to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.69

1

5.24

2-3

2.06

2

4.31

4+

4.13

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.69

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

4.13

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.12

3.39

4.30

2-3 goals

1.73

4.81

4.67

4+ goals

1.89

3.78

4.84

Ov 1.5

1.78

4.41

4.73

Un 1.5

2.12

3.39

4.30

Ov 2.5

1.59

7.75

4.10

Un 2.5

2.23

2.78

5.24

Ov 3.5

1.89

3.78

4.84

Un 3.5

1.85

4.18

4.53

Goal-Goal

2.30

2.87

4.60

No Goal

1.59

6.56

4.61

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.81

5.83

3.62

NG+Un 2.5

1.78

6.56

4.19


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Levante vs Getafe at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Levante and Getafe for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Levante

2.98

1.96

17.5

Draw

3.14

3.94

-6.5

Getafe

2.58

4.22

-15.1

Over 2.5

2.36

1.89

10.5

Under 2.5

1.61

2.12

-14.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Levante, Over 2.5 (17.5 %, 10.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Levante in the last six matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance at home.
Levante, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Valladolid

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Elche

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Alaves

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Granada

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Oct

Celta

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Ath Bilbao

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Oct

Real Madrid

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Oct

Sevilla

A

0

1

L

U

N


Getafe in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Getafe in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Getafe’s performance as a guest.
Getafe, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Getafe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Ath Bilbao

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Eibar

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Nov

Villarreal

H

1

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Valencia

A

2

2

D

O

G

25 Oct

Granada

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Barcelona

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Sociedad

A

0

3

L

O

N

29 Sep

Betis

H

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Levante and the red line for guest team, Getafe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Levante

20%

29%

26%

25%

Getafe

30%

43%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Levante to score 1.04 goals and Getafe to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Levante to score 1.57 goals and Getafe to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Levante to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.95

0-1

4.31

1

5.78

2-3

2.02

2

4.18

4+

3.69

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.52

Un 1.5

4.31

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.12

Gg

1.79

Ov 3.5

3.69

NoG

2.28

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.61

3.93

2.76

2-3 goals

1.86

3.91

4.82

4+ goals

1.76

4.04

5.42

Ov 1.5

1.83

3.95

5.01

Un 1.5

2.61

3.93

2.76

Ov 2.5

1.54

7.88

4.44

Un 2.5

2.82

2.53

3.99

Ov 3.5

1.76

4.04

5.42

Un 3.5

2.05

3.91

3.89

Goal-Goal

2.11

2.89

5.54

No Goal

1.80

7.44

3.23

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.63

6.46

4.29

NG+Un 2.5

2.06

7.44

2.92


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sevilla vs Real Madrid at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sevilla and Real Madrid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sevilla

2.58

2.19

6.9

Draw

3.52

3.73

-1.6

Real Madrid

2.73

3.64

-9.2

Over 2.5

1.77

2.05

-7.7

Under 2.5

2.10

1.95

3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sevilla, Under 2.5 (6.9 %, 3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sevilla in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance at home.
Sevilla, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Huesca

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Celta

H

4

2

W

O

G

07 Nov

Osasuna

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Ath Bilbao

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Eibar

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Granada

A

0

1

L

U

N

04 Oct

Barcelona

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Oct

Levante

H

1

0

W

U

N


Real Madrid in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance as a guest.
Real Madrid, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Alaves

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Villarreal

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Valencia

A

1

4

L

O

G

31 Oct

Huesca

H

4

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Barcelona

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Cadiz

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Oct

Levante

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Sep

Valladolid

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sevilla and the red line for guest team, Real Madrid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sevilla

22%

35%

21%

22%

Real Madrid

32%

38%

19%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.39 goals and Real Madrid to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.43 goals and Real Madrid to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.73

1

5.08

2-3

2.06

2

4.10

4+

4.07

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.73

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.07

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.33

3.77

3.27

2-3 goals

2.21

3.65

3.65

4+ goals

2.00

3.84

4.17

Ov 1.5

2.14

3.71

3.81

Un 1.5

2.33

3.77

3.27

Ov 2.5

1.78

7.61

3.25

Un 2.5

2.78

2.51

4.13

Ov 3.5

2.00

3.84

4.17

Un 3.5

2.25

3.69

3.50

Goal-Goal

2.60

2.68

4.15

No Goal

1.86

6.65

3.21

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.94

6.16

3.10

NG+Un 2.5

2.06

6.65

3.06


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Ath Madrid vs Valladolid at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Ath Madrid and Valladolid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ath Madrid

1.39

1.52

-6.2

Draw

4.50

4.69

-0.9

Valladolid

9.64

7.87

2.3

Over 2.5

2.24

2.10

3.0

Under 2.5

1.67

1.91

-7.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valladolid, Over 2.5 (2.3 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ath Madrid in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Madrid in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance at home.
Ath Madrid, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Valencia

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Barcelona

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Cadiz

H

4

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Osasuna

A

3

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Betis

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Celta

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Villarreal

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Sep

Huesca

A

0

0

D

U

N


Valladolid in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance as a guest.
Valladolid, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Levante

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Granada

A

3

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Ath Bilbao

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Villarreal

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Oct

Alaves

H

0

2

L

U

N

18 Oct

Huesca

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Eibar

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Sep

Real Madrid

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ath Madrid and the red line for guest team, Valladolid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ath Madrid

19%

22%

26%

33%

Valladolid

63%

16%

16%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.79 goals and Valladolid to score 0.46 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 1.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.72 goals and Valladolid to score 0.62 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 1.1 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.33

0-1

3.42

1

5.81

2-3

1.90

2

4.29

4+

5.46

3

3.41

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

9.62

Un 1.5

3.42

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

3.37

Ov 3.5

5.46

NoG

1.42

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.07

2.43