2020 12 04 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Accrington vs Milton Keynes Dons at 05 December 2020
Sunderland vs Wigan at 05 December 2020
Shrewsbury vs Charlton at 05 December 2020
Rochdale vs Lincoln at 05 December 2020
Portsmouth vs Peterboro at 05 December 2020
Plymouth vs Ipswich at 05 December 2020
Northampton vs Doncaster at 05 December 2020
Gillingham vs Swindon at 05 December 2020
Fleetwood Town vs Blackpool at 05 December 2020
AFC Wimbledon vs Bristol Rvs at 05 December 2020
Burton vs Crewe at 05 December 2020
Oxford vs Hull at 05 December 2020


Accrington vs Milton Keynes Dons at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Accrington and Milton Keynes Dons for League One (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Accrington

2.58

1.94

12.8

Draw

3.25

3.94

-5.4

Milton Keynes Dons

2.76

4.35

-13.2

Over 2.5

2.13

2.07

1.4

Under 2.5

1.73

1.93

-6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Accrington, Over 2.5 (12.8 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Accrington in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance at home.
Accrington, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Shrewsbury

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Crewe

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Lincoln

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Nov

Swindon

A

3

0

W

O

N

14 Nov

Northampton

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Fleetwood Town

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Ipswich

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Oct

Rochdale

H

2

1

W

O

G


Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance as a guest.
Milton Keynes Dons, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Charlton

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Shrewsbury

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Hull

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Nov

Sunderland

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Northampton

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Oct

Wigan

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Accrington and the red line for guest team, Milton Keynes Dons.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Accrington

18%

33%

28%

20%

Milton Keynes Dons

38%

35%

16%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.2 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.5 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Accrington to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.82

1

5.21

2-3

1.98

2

3.89

4+

4.31

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.82

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.05

3.74

4.09

2-3 goals

1.77

4.28

5.00

4+ goals

2.30

3.52

3.57

Ov 1.5

1.90

4.01

4.44

Un 1.5

2.05

3.74

4.09

Ov 2.5

1.73

7.27

3.50

Un 2.5

2.18

2.76

5.58

Ov 3.5

2.30

3.52

3.57

Un 3.5

1.85

4.08

4.65

Goal-Goal

2.50

2.73

4.26

No Goal

1.58

7.09

4.43

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

5.83

3.26

NG+Un 2.5

1.68

7.09

4.31


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sunderland vs Wigan at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and Wigan for League One (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sunderland

1.37

1.78

-16.8

Draw

4.74

3.97

4.1

Wigan

8.23

5.38

6.4

Over 2.5

1.74

2.13

-10.5

Under 2.5

2.11

1.88

5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Wigan, Under 2.5 (4.1 %, 6.4 %, 5.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sunderland in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Burton

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Nov

Fleetwood Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Doncaster

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Nov

Ipswich

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Gillingham

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Rochdale

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Oct

Portsmouth

H

1

3

L

O

G


Wigan in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance as a guest.
Wigan, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 14.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Lincoln

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Bristol Rvs

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Oxford

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Nov

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Northampton

H

2

3

L

O

G

27 Oct

Milton Keynes Dons

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Plymouth

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Oct

Peterboro

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Wigan.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sunderland

12%

39%

29%

20%

Wigan

40%

37%

14%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 2.16 goals and Wigan to score 0.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 1.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.56 goals and Wigan to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

20.00

0-1

3.95

1

4.93

2-3

1.89

2

3.61

4+

4.61

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.95

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.61

5.06

5.50

2-3 goals

1.75

3.67

6.37

4+ goals

2.11

3.74

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.84

3.69

5.37

Un 1.5

1.61

5.06

5.50

Ov 2.5

1.62

8.09

3.88

Un 2.5

1.95

2.73

8.28

Ov 3.5

2.11

3.74

3.88

Un 3.5

1.70

4.03

6.06

Goal-Goal

2.50

2.58

4.70

No Goal

1.35

9.54

6.45

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.81

6.52

3.41

NG+Un 2.5

1.42

9.54

6.03


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Shrewsbury vs Charlton at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Charlton for League One (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Shrewsbury

3.10

3.05

0.5

Draw

3.24

3.80

-4.5

Charlton

2.33

2.44

-1.9

Over 2.5

2.15

1.99

3.7

Under 2.5

1.70

2.01

-9.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (0.5 %, 3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Shrewsbury in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had no wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Accrington

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Milton Keynes Dons

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Ipswich

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Nov

Swindon

H

3

3

D

O

G

03 Nov

Burton

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Peterboro

A

1

5

L

O

G

27 Oct

Fleetwood Town

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Rochdale

H

1

2

L

O

G


Charlton in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Charlton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance as a guest.
Charlton, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Ipswich

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Burton

A

2

4

L

O

G

21 Nov

Gillingham

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Fleetwood Town

H

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Portsmouth

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Oxford

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Northampton

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Charlton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Shrewsbury

32%

30%

23%

15%

Charlton

21%

38%

26%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.04 goals and Charlton to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.21 goals and Charlton to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.97

1

5.43

2-3

2.04

2

4.07

4+

3.89

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.97

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.00

3.71

2.08

2-3 goals

2.92

4.34

2.34

4+ goals

2.65

3.13

3.29

Ov 1.5

2.82

3.83

2.60

Un 1.5

4.00

3.71

2.08

Ov 2.5

2.32

6.11

2.47

Un 2.5

4.45

2.75

2.43

Ov 3.5

2.65

3.13

3.29

Un 3.5

3.21

4.10

2.25

Goal-Goal

2.91

2.74

3.43

No Goal

3.22

6.82

1.84

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

5.15

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

3.44

6.82

1.88


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rochdale vs Lincoln at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Rochdale and Lincoln for League One (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rochdale

3.27

2.77

5.5

Draw

3.35

4.02

-5.0

Lincoln

2.19

2.56

-6.6

Over 2.5

2.05

1.81

6.5

Under 2.5

1.78

2.23

-11.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rochdale, Over 2.5 (5.5 %, 6.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rochdale in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance at home.
Rochdale, at home, had one win, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Plymouth

A

4

0

W

O

N

24 Nov

Northampton

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

AFC Wimbledon

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Oxford

A

1

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Bristol Rvs

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Oct

Sunderland

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Oct

Shrewsbury

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Burton

A

1

0

W

U

N


Lincoln in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance as a guest.
Lincoln, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 14 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Wigan

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Swindon

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Accrington

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Nov

Portsmouth

H

1

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Doncaster

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Oct

Crewe

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Ipswich

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Plymouth

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rochdale and the red line for guest team, Lincoln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rochdale

31%

23%

27%

19%

Lincoln

22%

38%

21%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.03 goals and Lincoln to score 1.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the guest team Lincoln to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.33 goals and Lincoln to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

4.24

1

5.95

2-3

2.16

2

4.72

4+

3.33

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.81

Un 1.5

4.24

5

10.87

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

27.78

Un 2.5

2.23

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.33

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-