# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Accrington vs Milton Keynes Dons at 05 December 2020**** Sunderland vs Wigan at 05 December 2020**** Shrewsbury vs Charlton at 05 December 2020**** Rochdale vs Lincoln at 05 December 2020**** Portsmouth vs Peterboro at 05 December 2020**** Plymouth vs Ipswich at 05 December 2020**** Northampton vs Doncaster at 05 December 2020**** Gillingham vs Swindon at 05 December 2020**** Fleetwood Town vs Blackpool at 05 December 2020**** AFC Wimbledon vs Bristol Rvs at 05 December 2020**** Burton vs Crewe at 05 December 2020**** Oxford vs Hull at 05 December 2020**

###
Accrington vs Milton Keynes Dons at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Accrington** and **Milton Keynes Dons** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Accrington |
2.58 |
1.94 |
12.8 |

Draw |
3.25 |
3.94 |
-5.4 |

Milton Keynes Dons |
2.76 |
4.35 |
-13.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.07 |
1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.93 |
-6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Accrington, Over 2.5 (12.8 %, 1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Accrington** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Accrington** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance** at home**.

Accrington,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Nov |
Swindon |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance** as a guest**.

Milton Keynes Dons,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Dec |
Charlton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Shrewsbury |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Hull |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Sunderland |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Oct |
Wigan |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Accrington** and the red line for guest team, **Milton Keynes Dons. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Accrington |
18% |
33% |
28% |
20% |

Milton Keynes Dons |
38% |
35% |
16% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Accrington** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Accrington** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Accrington ** to win by **0.51** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.82 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.31 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.05 |
3.74 |
4.09 |

2-3 goals |
1.77 |
4.28 |
5.00 |

4+ goals |
2.30 |
3.52 |
3.57 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.90 |
4.01 |
4.44 |

Un 1.5 |
2.05 |
3.74 |
4.09 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
7.27 |
3.50 |

Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.76 |
5.58 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.52 |
3.57 |

Un 3.5 |
1.85 |
4.08 |
4.65 |

Goal-Goal |
2.50 |
2.73 |
4.26 |

No Goal |
1.58 |
7.09 |
4.43 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
5.83 |
3.26 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.68 |
7.09 |
4.31 |

####
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###
Sunderland vs Wigan at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sunderland** and **Wigan** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sunderland |
1.37 |
1.78 |
-16.8 |

Draw |
4.74 |
3.97 |
4.1 |

Wigan |
8.23 |
5.38 |
6.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
2.13 |
-10.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.11 |
1.88 |
5.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Wigan, Under 2.5 (4.1 %, 6.4 %, 5.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sunderland** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sunderland** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance** at home**.

Sunderland,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Dec |
Burton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Nov |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Rochdale |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Wigan** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wigan** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance** as a guest**.

Wigan,** as a guest**, had one win, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 14.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Plymouth |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sunderland** and the red line for guest team, **Wigan. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sunderland |
12% |
39% |
29% |
20% |

Wigan |
40% |
37% |
14% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **2.16 ** goals and **Wigan** to score **0.59 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and the home team **Sunderland ** to win by **1.57** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Wigan** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Sunderland ** to win by **0.65** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
20.00 |
0-1 |
3.95 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
1.89 |

2 |
3.61 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.61 |
5.06 |
5.50 |

2-3 goals |
1.75 |
3.67 |
6.37 |

4+ goals |
2.11 |
3.74 |
3.88 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.84 |
3.69 |
5.37 |

Un 1.5 |
1.61 |
5.06 |
5.50 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
8.09 |
3.88 |

Un 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.73 |
8.28 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.74 |
3.88 |

Un 3.5 |
1.70 |
4.03 |
6.06 |

Goal-Goal |
2.50 |
2.58 |
4.70 |

No Goal |
1.35 |
9.54 |
6.45 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
6.52 |
3.41 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.42 |
9.54 |
6.03 |

####
Go to Top

###
Shrewsbury vs Charlton at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Shrewsbury** and **Charlton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Shrewsbury |
3.10 |
3.05 |
0.5 |

Draw |
3.24 |
3.80 |
-4.5 |

Charlton |
2.33 |
2.44 |
-1.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
1.99 |
3.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
2.01 |
-9.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (0.5 %, 3.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Shrewsbury** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Shrewsbury** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance** at home**.

Shrewsbury,** at home**, had no wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 6 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Dec |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Swindon |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Burton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Rochdale |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Charlton** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Charlton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance** as a guest**.

Charlton,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Ipswich |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Burton |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Portsmouth |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Oxford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Northampton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Shrewsbury** and the red line for guest team, **Charlton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Shrewsbury |
32% |
30% |
23% |
15% |

Charlton |
21% |
38% |
26% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.04 ** goals and **Charlton** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.23** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Charlton** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.97 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
3.89 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.00 |
3.71 |
2.08 |

2-3 goals |
2.92 |
4.34 |
2.34 |

4+ goals |
2.65 |
3.13 |
3.29 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.82 |
3.83 |
2.60 |

Un 1.5 |
4.00 |
3.71 |
2.08 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
6.11 |
2.47 |

Un 2.5 |
4.45 |
2.75 |
2.43 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.65 |
3.13 |
3.29 |

Un 3.5 |
3.21 |
4.10 |
2.25 |

Goal-Goal |
2.91 |
2.74 |
3.43 |

No Goal |
3.22 |
6.82 |
1.84 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
5.15 |
2.71 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.44 |
6.82 |
1.88 |

####
Go to Top

###
Rochdale vs Lincoln at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rochdale** and **Lincoln** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rochdale |
3.27 |
2.77 |
5.5 |

Draw |
3.35 |
4.02 |
-5.0 |

Lincoln |
2.19 |
2.56 |
-6.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
1.81 |
6.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
2.23 |
-11.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rochdale, Over 2.5 (5.5 %, 6.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rochdale** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rochdale** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance** at home**.

Rochdale,** at home**, had one win, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Dec |
Plymouth |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Nov |
Northampton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Oct |
Sunderland |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Shrewsbury |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Burton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Lincoln** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lincoln** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance** as a guest**.

Lincoln,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 14 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Dec |
Wigan |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Doncaster |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Ipswich |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rochdale** and the red line for guest team, **Lincoln. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rochdale |
31% |
23% |
27% |
19% |

Lincoln |
22% |
38% |
21% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **1.03 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the guest team **Lincoln ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1.38 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
4.24 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
2.16 |

2 |
4.72 |
4+ |
3.33 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.81 |
Un 1.5 |
4.24 |

5 |
10.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
27.78 |
Un 2.5 |
2.23 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.33 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |