2020 12 04 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Harrogate vs Forest Green at 05 December 2020
Tranmere vs Walsall at 05 December 2020
Stevenage vs Southend at 05 December 2020
Scunthorpe vs Leyton Orient at 05 December 2020
Mansfield vs Crawley Town at 05 December 2020
Cheltenham vs Exeter at 05 December 2020
Cambridge vs Oldham at 05 December 2020
Bradford vs Carlisle at 05 December 2020
Bolton vs Port Vale at 05 December 2020
Barrow vs Salford at 05 December 2020
Colchester vs Grimsby at 05 December 2020
Newport County vs Morecambe at 05 December 2020


Harrogate vs Forest Green at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Harrogate and Forest Green for League Two (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Harrogate

3.17

2.82

3.9

Draw

3.34

3.62

-2.3

Forest Green

2.25

2.70

-7.4

Over 2.5

2.10

2.25

-3.2

Under 2.5

1.73

1.80

-2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Harrogate (3.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Harrogate in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance at home.
Harrogate, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Scunthorpe

H

2

5

L

O

G

24 Nov

Mansfield

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Leyton Orient

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Nov

Crawley Town

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Tranmere

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Newport County

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Oct

Stevenage

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Oct

Colchester

A

1

2

L

O

G


Forest Green in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Forest Green in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance as a guest.
Forest Green, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Newport County

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Southend

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Barrow

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Nov

Mansfield

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Nov

Leyton Orient

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Cheltenham

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Oct

Grimsby

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Morecambe

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Harrogate and the red line for guest team, Forest Green.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Harrogate

32%

32%

24%

12%

Forest Green

29%

35%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.03 goals and Forest Green to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.16 goals and Forest Green to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.33

1

4.83

2-3

2.05

2

3.92

4+

4.69

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.33

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.19

3.23

2.65

2-3 goals

2.57

4.28

2.65

4+ goals

3.04

3.04

2.92

Ov 1.5

2.70

3.81

2.73

Un 1.5

3.19

3.23

2.65

Ov 2.5

2.35

6.37

2.40

Un 2.5

3.38

2.68

3.02

Ov 3.5

3.04

3.04

2.92

Un 3.5

2.77

3.81

2.65

Goal-Goal

3.12

2.63

3.34

No Goal

2.60

5.56

2.30

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.39

5.29

2.55

NG+Un 2.5

2.69

5.56

2.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Tranmere vs Walsall at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Tranmere and Walsall for League Two (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tranmere

2.39

2.39

0.0

Draw

3.31

3.70

-3.2

Walsall

2.97

3.22

-2.6

Over 2.5

2.20

2.15

1.1

Under 2.5

1.67

1.87

-6.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tranmere in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tranmere in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance at home.
Tranmere, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Oldham

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Carlisle

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Grimsby

H

5

0

W

O

N

14 Nov

Port Vale

A

4

3

W

O

G

03 Nov

Harrogate

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Morecambe

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Oct

Crawley Town

A

0

4

L

O

N

24 Oct

Southend

H

2

0

W

U

N


Walsall in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance as a guest.
Walsall, as a guest, had no wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Stevenage

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Newport County

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Cheltenham

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Nov

Southend

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Crawley Town

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Mansfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Oct

Cambridge

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Barrow

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tranmere and the red line for guest team, Walsall.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tranmere

27%

30%

28%

15%

Walsall

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.22 goals and Walsall to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.31 goals and Walsall to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.58

1

5.15

2-3

2.01

2

3.91

4+

4.50

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.58

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.91

3.28

2.85

2-3 goals

2.08

4.53

3.34

4+ goals

2.67

2.96

3.47

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.89

3.38

Un 1.5

2.91

3.28

2.85

Ov 2.5

2.00

6.19

2.96

Un 2.5

2.88

2.74

3.47

Ov 3.5

2.67

2.96

3.47

Un 3.5

2.32

3.98

3.15

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.69

3.92

No Goal

2.16

5.89

2.72

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.09

5.17

3.06

NG+Un 2.5

2.28

5.89

2.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Stevenage vs Southend at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Stevenage and Southend for League Two (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stevenage

1.86

2.18

-7.9

Draw

3.52

3.80

-2.1

Southend

4.26

3.60

4.3

Over 2.5

2.00

1.99

0.3

Under 2.5

1.82

2.01

-5.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Southend, Over 2.5 (4.3 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stevenage in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance at home.
Stevenage, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Walsall

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Port Vale

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Bolton

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Nov

Morecambe

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Colchester

A

1

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Grimsby

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Oct

Harrogate

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Oct

Leyton Orient

H

0

2

L

U

N


Southend in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southend in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance as a guest.
Southend, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Bolton

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Nov

Forest Green

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Nov

Walsall

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Bradford

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Oct

Port Vale

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Oct

Oldham

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Tranmere

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Oct

Salford

A

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stevenage and the red line for guest team, Southend.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stevenage

22%

32%

28%

19%

Southend

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.57 goals and Southend to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Stevenage to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.44 goals and Southend to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Stevenage to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

4.03

1

5.56

2-3

2.00

2

4.02

4+

3.97

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.03

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46

3.65

3.14

2-3 goals

2.01

4.31

3.70

4+ goals

2.33

3.19

3.88

Ov 1.5

2.11

3.86

3.76

Un 1.5

2.46

3.65

3.14

Ov 2.5

1.87

6.37

3.25

Un 2.5

2.63

2.70

4.01

Ov 3.5

2.33

3.19

3.88

Un 3.5

2.14

4.07

3.50

Goal-Goal

2.56

2.74

4.08

No Goal

1.87

6.84

3.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.30

3.20

NG+Un 2.5

2.02

6.84

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Scunthorpe vs Leyton Orient at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Scunthorpe and Leyton Orient for League Two (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Scunthorpe

2.83

2.92

-1.1

Draw

3.29

3.60

-2.6

Leyton Orient

2.49

2.64

-2.3

Over 2.5

2.04

2.23

-4.2

Under 2.5

1.79

1.81

-0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Scunthorpe in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance at home.
Scunthorpe, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Harrogate

A

5

2

W

O

G

24 Nov

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Morecambe

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Nov

Port Vale

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Nov

Oldham

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Exeter

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Oct

Cheltenham

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Cambridge

H

0

5

L

O

N


Leyton Orient in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leyton Orient in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance as a guest.
Leyton Orient, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Port Vale

A

3

2

W

O

G

24 Nov

Bradford

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Harrogate

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Nov

Colchester

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Nov

Forest Green

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Bolton

H

4

0

W

O

N

27 Oct

Exeter

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Stevenage

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Scunthorpe and the red line for guest team, Leyton Orient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Scunthorpe

30%

36%

21%

13%

Leyton Orient

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.15 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.15 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.40

1

4.78

2-3

2.04

2

3.89

4+

4.63

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.40

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.88

3.46

2.75