# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Harrogate vs Forest Green at 05 December 2020**** Tranmere vs Walsall at 05 December 2020**** Stevenage vs Southend at 05 December 2020**** Scunthorpe vs Leyton Orient at 05 December 2020**** Mansfield vs Crawley Town at 05 December 2020**** Cheltenham vs Exeter at 05 December 2020**** Cambridge vs Oldham at 05 December 2020**** Bradford vs Carlisle at 05 December 2020**** Bolton vs Port Vale at 05 December 2020**** Barrow vs Salford at 05 December 2020**** Colchester vs Grimsby at 05 December 2020**** Newport County vs Morecambe at 05 December 2020**

###
Harrogate vs Forest Green at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Harrogate** and **Forest Green** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Harrogate |
3.17 |
2.82 |
3.9 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.62 |
-2.3 |

Forest Green |
2.25 |
2.70 |
-7.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.25 |
-3.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.80 |
-2.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Harrogate (3.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Harrogate** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Harrogate** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance** at home**.

Harrogate,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Forest Green** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Forest Green** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance** as a guest**.

Forest Green,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Southend |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Morecambe |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Harrogate** and the red line for guest team, **Forest Green. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Harrogate |
32% |
32% |
24% |
12% |

Forest Green |
29% |
35% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Harrogate** to score **1.03 ** goals and **Forest Green** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.29** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Harrogate** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Forest Green** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.75 |
0-1 |
3.33 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.69 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.33 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |

NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.19 |
3.23 |
2.65 |

2-3 goals |
2.57 |
4.28 |
2.65 |

4+ goals |
3.04 |
3.04 |
2.92 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.70 |
3.81 |
2.73 |

Un 1.5 |
3.19 |
3.23 |
2.65 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.35 |
6.37 |
2.40 |

Un 2.5 |
3.38 |
2.68 |
3.02 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.04 |
3.04 |
2.92 |

Un 3.5 |
2.77 |
3.81 |
2.65 |

Goal-Goal |
3.12 |
2.63 |
3.34 |

No Goal |
2.60 |
5.56 |
2.30 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |
5.29 |
2.55 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.69 |
5.56 |
2.40 |

####
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###
Tranmere vs Walsall at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Tranmere** and **Walsall** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Tranmere |
2.39 |
2.39 |
0.0 |

Draw |
3.31 |
3.70 |
-3.2 |

Walsall |
2.97 |
3.22 |
-2.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.15 |
1.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.87 |
-6.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Tranmere** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tranmere** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance** at home**.

Tranmere,** at home**, had 4 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Grimsby |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Port Vale |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Morecambe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Southend |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** as a guest**.

Walsall,** as a guest**, had no wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 6 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Southend |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Oct |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Tranmere** and the red line for guest team, **Walsall. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Tranmere |
27% |
30% |
28% |
15% |

Walsall |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Tranmere** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Tranmere** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.58 |

1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.50 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.91 |
3.28 |
2.85 |

2-3 goals |
2.08 |
4.53 |
3.34 |

4+ goals |
2.67 |
2.96 |
3.47 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.89 |
3.38 |

Un 1.5 |
2.91 |
3.28 |
2.85 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
6.19 |
2.96 |

Un 2.5 |
2.88 |
2.74 |
3.47 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.67 |
2.96 |
3.47 |

Un 3.5 |
2.32 |
3.98 |
3.15 |

Goal-Goal |
2.68 |
2.69 |
3.92 |

No Goal |
2.16 |
5.89 |
2.72 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
5.17 |
3.06 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
5.89 |
2.76 |

####
Go to Top

###
Stevenage vs Southend at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stevenage** and **Southend** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stevenage |
1.86 |
2.18 |
-7.9 |

Draw |
3.52 |
3.80 |
-2.1 |

Southend |
4.26 |
3.60 |
4.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
1.99 |
0.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
2.01 |
-5.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Southend, Over 2.5 (4.3 %, 0.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stevenage** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stevenage** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance** at home**.

Stevenage,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Port Vale |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Grimsby |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Southend** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southend** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance** as a guest**.

Southend,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Nov |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Salford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stevenage** and the red line for guest team, **Southend. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stevenage |
22% |
32% |
28% |
19% |

Southend |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Southend** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Stevenage ** to win by **0.7** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Southend** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and the home team **Stevenage ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
4.03 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.46 |
3.65 |
3.14 |

2-3 goals |
2.01 |
4.31 |
3.70 |

4+ goals |
2.33 |
3.19 |
3.88 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.11 |
3.86 |
3.76 |

Un 1.5 |
2.46 |
3.65 |
3.14 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
6.37 |
3.25 |

Un 2.5 |
2.63 |
2.70 |
4.01 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.19 |
3.88 |

Un 3.5 |
2.14 |
4.07 |
3.50 |

Goal-Goal |
2.56 |
2.74 |
4.08 |

No Goal |
1.87 |
6.84 |
3.14 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.30 |
3.20 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.84 |
3.07 |

####
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###
Scunthorpe vs Leyton Orient at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Scunthorpe** and **Leyton Orient** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Scunthorpe |
2.83 |
2.92 |
-1.1 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.60 |
-2.6 |

Leyton Orient |
2.49 |
2.64 |
-2.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.23 |
-4.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.81 |
-0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** at home**.

Scunthorpe,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Dec |
Harrogate |
A |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Nov |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

**Leyton Orient** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leyton Orient** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance** as a guest**.

Leyton Orient,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Port Vale |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Harrogate |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Forest Green |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Bolton |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Oct |
Exeter |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Stevenage |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Scunthorpe** and the red line for guest team, **Leyton Orient. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Scunthorpe |
30% |
36% |
21% |
13% |

Leyton Orient |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.40 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.63 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.40 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.88 |
3.46 |
2.75 |