2020 12 04 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Nimes vs Marseille at 04 December 2020
Rennes vs Lens at 05 December 2020
Montpellier vs Paris SG at 05 December 2020
Bordeaux vs Brest at 06 December 2020
Dijon vs St Etienne at 06 December 2020
Lille vs Monaco at 06 December 2020
Metz vs Lyon at 06 December 2020
Nantes vs Strasbourg at 06 December 2020
Reims vs Nice at 06 December 2020
Angers vs Lorient at 06 December 2020


Nimes vs Marseille at 04 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Nimes and Marseille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 04 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nimes

4.65

3.01

11.7

Draw

3.63

3.56

0.5

Marseille

1.81

2.58

-16.5

Over 2.5

2.19

2.40

-4.0

Under 2.5

1.71

1.72

-0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nimes, Draw (11.7 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nimes in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nimes in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance at home.
Nimes, at home, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Monaco

A

0

3

L

O

N

22 Nov

Reims

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Angers

H

1

5

L

O

G

01 Nov

Metz

H

0

1

L

U

N

25 Oct

Bordeaux

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Oct

Paris SG

H

0

4

L

O

N

04 Oct

Montpellier

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Lens

H

1

1

D

U

G


Marseille in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance as a guest.
Marseille, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Nantes

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Nov

Strasbourg

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Lorient

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Bordeaux

H

3

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Lyon

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Sep

Metz

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Sep

Lille

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Sep

St Etienne

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nimes and the red line for guest team, Marseille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nimes

35%

35%

20%

10%

Marseille

35%

35%

6%

24%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nimes to score 0.78 goals and Marseille to score 1.52 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the guest team Marseille to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nimes to score 1.04 goals and Marseille to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.13

0-1

2.71

1

4.07

2-3

2.36

2

4.67

4+

4.81

3

4.76

Ov 1.5

1.58

4

7.63

Un 1.5

2.71

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.37

Ov 3.5

4.81

NoG

1.73

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.00

3.00

3.00

2-3 goals

2.48

3.48

3.24

4+ goals

5.33

5.78

1.56

Ov 1.5

3.01

4.00

2.39

Un 1.5

3.00

3.00

3.00

Ov 2.5

2.96

11.61

1.73

Un 2.5

3.04

2.38

3.99

Ov 3.5

5.33

5.78

1.56

Un 3.5

2.70

3.24

3.12

Goal-Goal

3.91

2.67

2.71

No Goal

2.57

4.71

2.51

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.78

8.33

1.92

NG+Un 2.5

2.40

4.71

3.16


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Rennes vs Lens at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Rennes and Lens for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rennes

2.09

2.10

-0.2

Draw

3.49

3.91

-3.1

Lens

3.53

3.75

-1.7

Over 2.5

2.02

2.18

-3.6

Under 2.5

1.83

1.85

-0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rennes in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rennes in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance at home.
Rennes, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Strasbourg

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Nov

Bordeaux

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Paris SG

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Oct

Brest

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Oct

Angers

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Oct

Dijon

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Reims

H

2

2

D

O

G

26 Sep

St Etienne

A

3

0

W

O

N


Lens in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lens in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance as a guest.
Lens, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Angers

H

1

3

L

O

G

25 Nov

Nantes

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Dijon

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Reims

H

4

4

D

O

G

18 Oct

Lille

A

0

4

L

O

N

03 Oct

St Etienne

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Nimes

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Sep

Bordeaux

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rennes and the red line for guest team, Lens.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rennes

26%

23%

39%

12%

Lens

36%

36%

17%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rennes to score 1.45 goals and Lens to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Rennes to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rennes to score 1.38 goals and Lens to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Rennes to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

3.66

1

5.62

2-3

1.93

2

3.75

4+

4.81

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

7.46

Un 1.5

3.66

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.14

Ov 3.5

4.81

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.29

2.87

2.87

2-3 goals

1.58

6.32

4.75

4+ goals

3.15

2.63

3.30

Ov 1.5

1.85

4.51

4.22

Un 1.5

3.29

2.87

2.87

Ov 2.5

1.82

5.81

3.59

Un 2.5

2.41

3.05

3.88

Ov 3.5

3.15

2.63

3.30

Un 3.5

1.93

4.47

3.88

Goal-Goal

2.27

2.91

4.63

No Goal

1.97

5.59

3.20

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.87

4.89

3.82

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

5.59

3.29


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Montpellier vs Paris SG at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Montpellier and Paris SG for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Montpellier

6.47

2.77

20.6

Draw

4.78

3.61

6.8

Paris SG

1.46

2.76

-32.3

Over 2.5

1.57

2.44

-22.7

Under 2.5

2.44

1.69

18.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Montpellier, Draw, Under 2.5 (20.6 %, 6.8 %, 18.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Montpellier in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Montpellier in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance at home.
Montpellier, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Lorient

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Strasbourg

H

4

3

W

O

G

07 Nov

Bordeaux

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

St Etienne

A

1

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Reims

H

0

4

L

O

N

18 Oct

Monaco

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Nimes

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Sep

Dijon

A

2

2

D

O

G


Paris SG in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance as a guest.
Paris SG, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Bordeaux

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Nov

Monaco

A

2

3

L

O

G

07 Nov

Rennes

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Nantes

A

3

0

W

O

N

24 Oct

Dijon

H

4

0

W

O

N

16 Oct

Nimes

A

4

0

W

O

N

02 Oct

Angers

H

6

1

W

O

G

27 Sep

Reims

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Montpellier and the red line for guest team, Paris SG.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Montpellier

34%

34%

24%

9%

Paris SG

36%

36%

7%

21%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Montpellier to score 0.75 goals and Paris SG to score 2.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.03 goals in the game and the guest team Paris SG to win by 1.53 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Montpellier to score 1.08 goals and Paris SG to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.20

0-1

2.75

1

4.15

2-3

2.27

2

4.39

4+

5.13

3

4.72

Ov 1.5

1.57

4

8.40

Un 1.5

2.75

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.46

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.36

Ov 3.5

5.13

NoG

1.74

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.02

2.98

3.00

2-3 goals

2.18

3.67

3.73

4+ goals

5.13

5.57

1.60

Ov 1.5

2.65

4.10

2.65

Un 1.5

3.02

2.98

3.00

Ov 2.5

2.63

11.63

1.88

Un 2.5

2.88

2.44

4.10

Ov 3.5

5.13

5.57

1.60

Un 3.5

2.49

3.32

3.36

Goal-Goal

3.44

2.73

2.92

No Goal

2.43

4.71

2.66

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.46

8.66

2.09

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

4.71

3.27


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Bordeaux vs Brest at 06 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bordeaux and Brest for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 06 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bordeaux

2.13

2.30

-3.5

Draw

3.47

3.48

-0.1

Brest

3.51

3.57

-0.5

Over 2.5

1.96

2.51

-11.2

Under 2.5

1.87

1.66

6.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bordeaux in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bordeaux in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance at home.
Bordeaux, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Paris SG

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Nov

Rennes

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Montpellier

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Monaco

A

0

4

L

O

N

25 Oct

Nimes

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Marseille

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Oct

Dijon

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Sep

Nice

H

0

0

D

U

N


Brest in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brest in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance as a guest.
Brest, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Metz

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

St Etienne

H

4

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Lille

H

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Rennes

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Strasbourg

H

0

3

L

O

N

18 Oct

Nantes

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Oct

Monaco

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Angers

A

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bordeaux and the red line for guest team, Brest.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bordeaux

25%

39%

22%

14%

Brest

38%

36%

16%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bordeaux to score 1.47 goals and Brest to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Bordeaux to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bordeaux to score 1.24 goals and Brest to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

2.99

1

4.18

2-3

2.05

2

3.75

4+

5.62

3

4.55

Ov 1.5

1.50

4

8.20

Un 1.5

2.99

5

23.26

Ov 2.5

2.51

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.66

Gg

2.15

Ov 3.5

5.62

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.27

3.52

3.63