# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Nimes vs Marseille at 04 December 2020**** Rennes vs Lens at 05 December 2020**** Montpellier vs Paris SG at 05 December 2020**** Bordeaux vs Brest at 06 December 2020**** Dijon vs St Etienne at 06 December 2020**** Lille vs Monaco at 06 December 2020**** Metz vs Lyon at 06 December 2020**** Nantes vs Strasbourg at 06 December 2020**** Reims vs Nice at 06 December 2020**** Angers vs Lorient at 06 December 2020**

###
Nimes vs Marseille at 04 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nimes** and **Marseille** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **04 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nimes |
4.65 |
3.01 |
11.7 |

Draw |
3.63 |
3.56 |
0.5 |

Marseille |
1.81 |
2.58 |
-16.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.40 |
-4.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.72 |
-0.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nimes, Draw (11.7 %, 0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nimes** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nimes** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance** at home**.

Nimes,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Nov |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

22 Nov |
Reims |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Angers |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Metz |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Bordeaux |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Oct |
Paris SG |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Oct |
Montpellier |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Lens |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Marseille** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Marseille** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance** as a guest**.

Marseille,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Nantes |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Strasbourg |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Lorient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Bordeaux |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Lyon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Sep |
Metz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Sep |
Lille |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Sep |
St Etienne |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nimes** and the red line for guest team, **Marseille. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nimes |
35% |
35% |
20% |
10% |

Marseille |
35% |
35% |
6% |
24% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nimes** to score **0.78 ** goals and **Marseille** to score **1.52 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and the guest team **Marseille ** to win by **0.74** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nimes** to score **1.04 ** goals and **Marseille** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.16** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.13 |
0-1 |
2.71 |

1 |
4.07 |
2-3 |
2.36 |

2 |
4.67 |
4+ |
4.81 |

3 |
4.76 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.58 |

4 |
7.63 |
Un 1.5 |
2.71 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
2.37 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.81 |

NoG |
1.73 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
2.48 |
3.48 |
3.24 |

4+ goals |
5.33 |
5.78 |
1.56 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.01 |
4.00 |
2.39 |

Un 1.5 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.96 |
11.61 |
1.73 |

Un 2.5 |
3.04 |
2.38 |
3.99 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.33 |
5.78 |
1.56 |

Un 3.5 |
2.70 |
3.24 |
3.12 |

Goal-Goal |
3.91 |
2.67 |
2.71 |

No Goal |
2.57 |
4.71 |
2.51 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.78 |
8.33 |
1.92 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.40 |
4.71 |
3.16 |

####
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###
Rennes vs Lens at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rennes** and **Lens** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rennes |
2.09 |
2.10 |
-0.2 |

Draw |
3.49 |
3.91 |
-3.1 |

Lens |
3.53 |
3.75 |
-1.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.18 |
-3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.83 |
1.85 |
-0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rennes** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rennes** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance** at home**.

Rennes,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Nov |
Strasbourg |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Nov |
Bordeaux |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Brest |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Angers |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Oct |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
Reims |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
St Etienne |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Lens** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lens** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance** as a guest**.

Lens,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Nov |
Angers |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Nantes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Reims |
H |
4 |
4 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Lille |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Oct |
St Etienne |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Nimes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Sep |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rennes** and the red line for guest team, **Lens. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rennes |
26% |
23% |
39% |
12% |

Lens |
36% |
36% |
17% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rennes** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Lens** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the home team **Rennes ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rennes** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Lens** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and the home team **Rennes ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
3.66 |

1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
4.81 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
7.46 |
Un 1.5 |
3.66 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
2.14 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.81 |

NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.29 |
2.87 |
2.87 |

2-3 goals |
1.58 |
6.32 |
4.75 |

4+ goals |
3.15 |
2.63 |
3.30 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.85 |
4.51 |
4.22 |

Un 1.5 |
3.29 |
2.87 |
2.87 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
5.81 |
3.59 |

Un 2.5 |
2.41 |
3.05 |
3.88 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.15 |
2.63 |
3.30 |

Un 3.5 |
1.93 |
4.47 |
3.88 |

Goal-Goal |
2.27 |
2.91 |
4.63 |

No Goal |
1.97 |
5.59 |
3.20 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
4.89 |
3.82 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.59 |
3.29 |

####
Go to Top

###
Montpellier vs Paris SG at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Montpellier** and **Paris SG** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Montpellier |
6.47 |
2.77 |
20.6 |

Draw |
4.78 |
3.61 |
6.8 |

Paris SG |
1.46 |
2.76 |
-32.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.57 |
2.44 |
-22.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.44 |
1.69 |
18.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Montpellier, Draw, Under 2.5 (20.6 %, 6.8 %, 18.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Montpellier** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Montpellier** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance** at home**.

Montpellier,** at home**, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Nov |
Lorient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Strasbourg |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Bordeaux |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
St Etienne |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Reims |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
Monaco |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
Nimes |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Dijon |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Paris SG** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Paris SG** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance** as a guest**.

Paris SG,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Nov |
Monaco |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Rennes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Nantes |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Dijon |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Oct |
Nimes |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Oct |
Angers |
H |
6 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Sep |
Reims |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Montpellier** and the red line for guest team, **Paris SG. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Montpellier |
34% |
34% |
24% |
9% |

Paris SG |
36% |
36% |
7% |
21% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Montpellier** to score **0.75 ** goals and **Paris SG** to score **2.28 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.03** goals in the game and the guest team **Paris SG ** to win by **1.53** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Montpellier** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Paris SG** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.20 |
0-1 |
2.75 |

1 |
4.15 |
2-3 |
2.27 |

2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
5.13 |

3 |
4.72 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.57 |

4 |
8.40 |
Un 1.5 |
2.75 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.46 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |

Gg |
2.36 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.13 |

NoG |
1.74 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.02 |
2.98 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
2.18 |
3.67 |
3.73 |

4+ goals |
5.13 |
5.57 |
1.60 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.65 |
4.10 |
2.65 |

Un 1.5 |
3.02 |
2.98 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.63 |
11.63 |
1.88 |

Un 2.5 |
2.88 |
2.44 |
4.10 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.13 |
5.57 |
1.60 |

Un 3.5 |
2.49 |
3.32 |
3.36 |

Goal-Goal |
3.44 |
2.73 |
2.92 |

No Goal |
2.43 |
4.71 |
2.66 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.46 |
8.66 |
2.09 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
4.71 |
3.27 |

####
Go to Top

###
Bordeaux vs Brest at 06 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bordeaux** and **Brest** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **06 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bordeaux |
2.13 |
2.30 |
-3.5 |

Draw |
3.47 |
3.48 |
-0.1 |

Brest |
3.51 |
3.57 |
-0.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.51 |
-11.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.66 |
6.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (6.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bordeaux** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bordeaux** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance** at home**.

Bordeaux,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Paris SG |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Nov |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Montpellier |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Nimes |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Dijon |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Sep |
Nice |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Brest** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brest** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance** as a guest**.

Brest,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Nov |
Metz |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
St Etienne |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Lille |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Strasbourg |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Monaco |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Angers |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bordeaux** and the red line for guest team, **Brest. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bordeaux |
25% |
39% |
22% |
14% |

Brest |
38% |
36% |
16% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bordeaux** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Brest** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Bordeaux ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bordeaux** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Brest** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
2.99 |

1 |
4.18 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.62 |

3 |
4.55 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.50 |

4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
2.99 |

5 |
23.26 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.51 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.66 |

Gg |
2.15 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.62 |

NoG |
1.87 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.27 |
3.52 |
3.63 |