# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Aston Villa vs Newcastle at 04 December 2020**** Burnley vs Everton at 05 December 2020**** West Ham vs Man United at 05 December 2020**** Man City vs Fulham at 05 December 2020**** Chelsea vs Leeds at 05 December 2020**** West Brom vs Crystal Palace at 06 December 2020**** Tottenham vs Arsenal at 06 December 2020**** Sheffield United vs Leicester at 06 December 2020**** Liverpool vs Wolves at 06 December 2020**** Brighton vs Southampton at 07 December 2020**

###
Aston Villa vs Newcastle at 04 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Aston Villa** and **Newcastle** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **04 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Aston Villa |
1.63 |
2.17 |
-15.3 |

Draw |
4.12 |
4.00 |
0.7 |

Newcastle |
5.40 |
3.45 |
10.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.83 |
-2.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.20 |
-0.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Newcastle (0.7 %, 10.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Aston Villa** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aston Villa** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance** at home**.

Aston Villa,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Nov |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Arsenal |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
Leicester |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Liverpool |
H |
7 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Sep |
Fulham |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** as a guest**.

Newcastle,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Nov |
Crystal Palace |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Nov |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Everton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Man United |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Burnley |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Sep |
Tottenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Aston Villa** and the red line for guest team, **Newcastle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Aston Villa |
25% |
26% |
22% |
27% |

Newcastle |
31% |
35% |
20% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Aston Villa** to score **1.95 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **0.81 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.77** goals in the game and the home team **Aston Villa ** to win by **1.14** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Aston Villa** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.69** goals in the game and the home team **Aston Villa ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
4.10 |

1 |
5.99 |
2-3 |
2.19 |

2 |
4.78 |
4+ |
3.37 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.71 |
Un 1.5 |
4.10 |

5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |

6+ |
27.03 |
Un 2.5 |
2.21 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.37 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.05 |
3.17 |
2.80 |

2-3 goals |
1.98 |
5.07 |
3.35 |

4+ goals |
1.98 |
3.62 |
4.57 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.98 |
4.38 |
3.75 |

Un 1.5 |
3.05 |
3.17 |
2.80 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
6.63 |
3.60 |

Un 2.5 |
3.04 |
2.71 |
3.31 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.98 |
3.62 |
4.57 |

Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
4.19 |
3.14 |

Goal-Goal |
2.27 |
3.00 |
4.41 |

No Goal |
2.06 |
6.25 |
2.81 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
5.20 |
3.64 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
6.25 |
2.65 |

####
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###
Burnley vs Everton at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Burnley** and **Everton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Burnley |
4.02 |
4.55 |
-2.9 |

Draw |
3.53 |
4.20 |
-4.5 |

Everton |
1.97 |
1.85 |
3.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.03 |
1.88 |
3.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.83 |
2.14 |
-7.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Everton, Over 2.5 (3.3 %, 3.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Burnley** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Burnley** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance** at home**.

Burnley,** at home**, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Man City |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Nov |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Nov |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

26 Oct |
Tottenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Oct |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Southampton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Everton** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Everton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance** as a guest**.

Everton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Fulham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Man United |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Liverpool |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Brighton |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Crystal Palace |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Burnley** and the red line for guest team, **Everton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Burnley |
40% |
27% |
26% |
7% |

Everton |
17% |
30% |
27% |
26% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Burnley** to score **0.92 ** goals and **Everton** to score **1.52 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the guest team **Everton ** to win by **0.6** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Burnley** to score **1 ** goals and **Everton** to score **1.62 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the guest team **Everton ** to win by **0.62** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
4.26 |

1 |
6.02 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
4.29 |
4+ |
3.77 |

3 |
3.75 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.26 |

5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
2.14 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.77 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
5.00 |
3.41 |
1.97 |

2-3 goals |
3.70 |
6.17 |
1.76 |

4+ goals |
6.97 |
3.01 |
1.91 |

Ov 1.5 |
4.42 |
4.53 |
1.81 |

Un 1.5 |
5.00 |
3.41 |
1.97 |

Ov 2.5 |
4.16 |
6.05 |
1.68 |

Un 2.5 |
5.09 |
3.12 |
2.07 |

Ov 3.5 |
6.97 |
3.01 |
1.91 |

Un 3.5 |
4.04 |
4.90 |
1.82 |

Goal-Goal |
4.26 |
2.95 |
2.35 |

No Goal |
4.87 |
7.28 |
1.52 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.56 |
4.74 |
1.97 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
4.21 |
7.28 |
1.71 |

####
Go to Top

###
West Ham vs Man United at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **West Ham** and **Man United** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

West Ham |
3.63 |
2.14 |
19.2 |

Draw |
3.55 |
3.91 |
-2.6 |

Man United |
2.07 |
3.62 |
-20.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.88 |
-3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.13 |
-0.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **West Ham (19.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**West Ham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Ham** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance** at home**.

West Ham,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Nov |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Man City |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
Tottenham |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Leicester |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Sep |
Wolves |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Man United** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man United** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance** as a guest**.

Man United,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 12 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Nov |
Southampton |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Everton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Newcastle |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Brighton |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **West Ham** and the red line for guest team, **Man United. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

West Ham |
23% |
34% |
11% |
32% |

Man United |
33% |
36% |
19% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **West Ham** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Man United** to score **1.64 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.73** goals in the game and the guest team **Man United ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **West Ham** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Man United** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.63** goals in the game and the home team **West Ham ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.72 |

1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
2.28 |

2 |
5.00 |
4+ |
3.41 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
5.65 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |

5 |
13.16 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
25.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.41 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.42 |
3.54 |
3.28 |

2-3 goals |
2.45 |
3.65 |
3.15 |

4+ goals |
1.65 |
4.80 |
5.43 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.05 |
4.04 |
3.79 |

Un 1.5 |
2.42 |
3.54 |
3.28 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
8.70 |
3.59 |

Un 2.5 |
3.21 |
2.39 |
3.69 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.65 |
4.80 |
5.43 |

Un 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.61 |
3.20 |

Goal-Goal |
2.39 |
2.86 |
4.31 |

No Goal |
1.92 |
6.36 |
3.12 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
6.51 |
3.31 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.39 |
6.36 |
2.75 |

####
Go to Top

###
Man City vs Fulham at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man City** and **Fulham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **05 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man City |
1.13 |
1.62 |
-26.8 |

Draw |
9.64 |
4.27 |
13.0 |

Fulham |
21.63 |
6.67 |
10.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.30 |
1.94 |
-25.4 |

Under 2.5 |
3.53 |
2.07 |
20.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Fulham, Under 2.5 (13 %, 10.4 %, 20 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** at home**.

Man City,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Nov |
Burnley |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Sep |
Leicester |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

**Fulham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fulham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance** as a guest**.

Fulham,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Nov |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Everton |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
West Ham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Nov |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Sep |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man City** and the red line for guest team, **Fulham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man City |
12% |
42% |
6% |
40% |

Fulham |
46% |
36% |
14% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man City** to score **3.39 ** goals and **Fulham** to score **0.35 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.74** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **3.04** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man City** to score **1.73 ** goals and **Fulham** to score **0.78 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **0.95** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.86 |
0-1 |
3.44 |

1 |
4.26 |
2-3 |
2.18 |

2 |
5.18 |
4+ |
4.02 |

3 |
3.76 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.44 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
2.10 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.02 |

NoG |
1.91 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.