2020 12 04 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Aston Villa vs Newcastle at 04 December 2020
Burnley vs Everton at 05 December 2020
West Ham vs Man United at 05 December 2020
Man City vs Fulham at 05 December 2020
Chelsea vs Leeds at 05 December 2020
West Brom vs Crystal Palace at 06 December 2020
Tottenham vs Arsenal at 06 December 2020
Sheffield United vs Leicester at 06 December 2020
Liverpool vs Wolves at 06 December 2020
Brighton vs Southampton at 07 December 2020


Aston Villa vs Newcastle at 04 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Aston Villa and Newcastle for Premier League (England), which will take place on 04 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aston Villa

1.63

2.17

-15.3

Draw

4.12

4.00

0.7

Newcastle

5.40

3.45

10.5

Over 2.5

1.74

1.83

-2.8

Under 2.5

2.16

2.20

-0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Newcastle (0.7 %, 10.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aston Villa in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance at home.
Aston Villa, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Nov

West Ham

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Brighton

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Nov

Arsenal

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Southampton

H

3

4

L

O

G

23 Oct

Leeds

H

0

3

L

O

N

18 Oct

Leicester

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Oct

Liverpool

H

7

2

W

O

G

28 Sep

Fulham

A

3

0

W

O

N


Newcastle in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance as a guest.
Newcastle, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Crystal Palace

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Chelsea

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Nov

Southampton

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Everton

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Wolves

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Man United

H

1

4

L

O

G

03 Oct

Burnley

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Sep

Tottenham

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aston Villa and the red line for guest team, Newcastle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aston Villa

25%

26%

22%

27%

Newcastle

31%

35%

20%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.95 goals and Newcastle to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Aston Villa to win by 1.14 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.52 goals and Newcastle to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the home team Aston Villa to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

4.10

1

5.99

2-3

2.19

2

4.78

4+

3.37

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.71

Un 1.5

4.10

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

1.84

6+

27.03

Un 2.5

2.21

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

3.37

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.05

3.17

2.80

2-3 goals

1.98

5.07

3.35

4+ goals

1.98

3.62

4.57

Ov 1.5

1.98

4.38

3.75

Un 1.5

3.05

3.17

2.80

Ov 2.5

1.75

6.63

3.60

Un 2.5

3.04

2.71

3.31

Ov 3.5

1.98

3.62

4.57

Un 3.5

2.26

4.19

3.14

Goal-Goal

2.27

3.00

4.41

No Goal

2.06

6.25

2.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

5.20

3.64

NG+Un 2.5

2.44

6.25

2.65


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Burnley vs Everton at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Burnley and Everton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Burnley

4.02

4.55

-2.9

Draw

3.53

4.20

-4.5

Everton

1.97

1.85

3.3

Over 2.5

2.03

1.88

3.9

Under 2.5

1.83

2.14

-7.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Everton, Over 2.5 (3.3 %, 3.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Burnley in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Burnley in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance at home.
Burnley, at home, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Man City

A

0

5

L

O

N

23 Nov

Crystal Palace

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Nov

Brighton

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Chelsea

H

0

3

L

O

N

26 Oct

Tottenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Oct

West Brom

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Oct

Newcastle

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Sep

Southampton

H

0

1

L

U

N


Everton in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance as a guest.
Everton, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Leeds

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Fulham

A

3

2

W

O

G

07 Nov

Man United

H

1

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Newcastle

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Southampton

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Oct

Liverpool

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Brighton

H

4

2

W

O

G

26 Sep

Crystal Palace

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Burnley and the red line for guest team, Everton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Burnley

40%

27%

26%

7%

Everton

17%

30%

27%

26%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burnley to score 0.92 goals and Everton to score 1.52 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the guest team Everton to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burnley to score 1 goals and Everton to score 1.62 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the guest team Everton to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

4.26

1

6.02

2-3

2.00

2

4.29

4+

3.77

3

3.75

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.21

Un 1.5

4.26

5

11.49

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

2.14

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

3.77

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.00

3.41

1.97

2-3 goals

3.70

6.17

1.76

4+ goals

6.97

3.01

1.91

Ov 1.5

4.42

4.53

1.81

Un 1.5

5.00

3.41

1.97

Ov 2.5

4.16

6.05

1.68

Un 2.5

5.09

3.12

2.07

Ov 3.5

6.97

3.01

1.91

Un 3.5

4.04

4.90

1.82

Goal-Goal

4.26

2.95

2.35

No Goal

4.87

7.28

1.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.56

4.74

1.97

NG+Un 2.5

4.21

7.28

1.71


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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West Ham vs Man United at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between West Ham and Man United for Premier League (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

West Ham

3.63

2.14

19.2

Draw

3.55

3.91

-2.6

Man United

2.07

3.62

-20.7

Over 2.5

1.76

1.88

-3.6

Under 2.5

2.12

2.13

-0.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at West Ham (19.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

West Ham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Ham in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance at home.
West Ham, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Nov

Aston Villa

H

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Sheffield United

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Fulham

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Liverpool

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Man City

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Tottenham

A

3

3

D

O

G

04 Oct

Leicester

A

3

0

W

O

N

27 Sep

Wolves

H

4

0

W

O

N


Man United in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man United in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance as a guest.
Man United, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 12 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Southampton

A

3

2

W

O

G

21 Nov

West Brom

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Everton

A

3

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Arsenal

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Chelsea

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Newcastle

A

4

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Tottenham

H

1

6

L

O

G

26 Sep

Brighton

A

3

2

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, West Ham and the red line for guest team, Man United.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

West Ham

23%

34%

11%

32%

Man United

33%

36%

19%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.09 goals and Man United to score 1.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and the guest team Man United to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.52 goals and Man United to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and the home team West Ham to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.72

1

5.18

2-3

2.28

2

5.00

4+

3.41

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

5.65

Un 1.5

3.72

5

13.16

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

25.00

Un 2.5

2.13

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.41

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.41

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.42

3.54

3.28

2-3 goals

2.45

3.65

3.15

4+ goals

1.65

4.80

5.43

Ov 1.5

2.05

4.04

3.79

Un 1.5

2.42

3.54

3.28

Ov 2.5

1.65

8.70

3.59

Un 2.5

3.21

2.39

3.69

Ov 3.5

1.65

4.80

5.43

Un 3.5

2.44

3.61

3.20

Goal-Goal

2.39

2.86

4.31

No Goal

1.92

6.36

3.12

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.84

6.51

3.31

NG+Un 2.5

2.39

6.36

2.75


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Man City vs Fulham at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Man City and Fulham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Man City

1.13

1.62

-26.8

Draw

9.64

4.27

13.0

Fulham

21.63

6.67

10.4

Over 2.5

1.30

1.94

-25.4

Under 2.5

3.53

2.07

20.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Fulham, Under 2.5 (13 %, 10.4 %, 20 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Man City in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance at home.
Man City, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Burnley

H

5

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Tottenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Liverpool

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Sheffield United

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

West Ham

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Arsenal

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Leeds

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Sep

Leicester

H

2

5

L

O

G


Fulham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fulham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance as a guest.
Fulham, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Nov

Leicester

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Everton

H

2

3

L

O

G

07 Nov

West Ham

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Nov

West Brom

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Crystal Palace

H

1

2

L

O

G

18 Oct

Sheffield United

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Wolves

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Sep

Aston Villa

H

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man City and the red line for guest team, Fulham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Man City

12%

42%

6%

40%

Fulham

46%

36%

14%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man City to score 3.39 goals and Fulham to score 0.35 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.74 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 3.04 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man City to score 1.73 goals and Fulham to score 0.78 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 0.95 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.86

0-1

3.44

1

4.26

2-3

2.18

2

5.18

4+

4.02

3

3.76

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

5.85

Un 1.5

3.44

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

4.02

NoG

1.91

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.