2020 12 04 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Porto vs Tondela at 05 December 2020
Guimaraes vs Portimonense at 05 December 2020
Famalicao vs Sp Lisbon at 05 December 2020
Moreirense vs Gil Vicente at 05 December 2020
Rio Ave vs Boavista at 06 December 2020
Nacional vs Santa Clara at 06 December 2020
Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira at 06 December 2020
Belenenses vs Sp Braga at 06 December 2020
Farense vs Maritimo at 07 December 2020


Porto vs Tondela at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Porto and Tondela for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Porto

1.20

2.16

-37.0

Draw

6.44

3.70

11.5

Tondela

13.38

3.73

19.3

Over 2.5

1.51

2.65

-28.5

Under 2.5

2.49

1.61

22.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Tondela, Under 2.5 (11.5 %, 19.3 %, 22 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Porto in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Porto in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance at home.
Porto, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Santa Clara

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Portimonense

H

3

1

W

O

G

30 Oct

Pacos Ferreira

A

2

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Gil Vicente

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Sp Lisbon

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Maritimo

H

2

3

L

O

G

26 Sep

Boavista

A

5

0

W

O

N

19 Sep

Sp Braga

H

3

1

W

O

G


Tondela in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance as a guest.
Tondela, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Guimaraes

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Santa Clara

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Sp Lisbon

A

0

4

L

O

N

23 Oct

Portimonense

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Gil Vicente

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Oct

Sp Braga

H

0

4

L

O

N

26 Sep

Maritimo

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Sep

Rio Ave

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Porto and the red line for guest team, Tondela.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Porto

29%

35%

21%

15%

Tondela

52%

14%

30%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Porto to score 2.66 goals and Tondela to score 0.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.11 goals in the game and the home team Porto to win by 2.21 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Porto to score 1.21 goals and Tondela to score 0.86 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and the home team Porto to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.67

0-1

2.67

1

4.44

2-3

2.12

2

4.05

4+

6.54

3

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.60

4

10.42

Un 1.5

2.67

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.65

6+

200.00

Un 2.5

1.61

Gg

2.92

Ov 3.5

6.54

NoG

1.52

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.05

2.50

8.93

2-3 goals

2.21

9.24

2.28

4+ goals

2.32

2.25

8.05

Ov 1.5

2.24

5.24

2.76

Un 1.5

2.05

2.50

8.93

Ov 2.5

2.19

5.54

2.75

Un 2.5

2.14

3.09

4.75

Ov 3.5

2.32

2.25

8.05

Un 3.5

2.14

4.21

3.40

Goal-Goal

3.56

2.87

2.69

No Goal

1.80

4.38

4.66

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.03

4.28

2.29

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

4.38

4.36


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Guimaraes vs Portimonense at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Guimaraes and Portimonense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Guimaraes

1.91

1.96

-1.3

Draw

3.50

3.83

-2.5

Portimonense

3.95

4.39

-2.5

Over 2.5

2.34

2.03

6.5

Under 2.5

1.60

1.97

-11.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (6.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Guimaraes in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Guimaraes in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance at home.
Guimaraes, at home, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Tondela

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Sp Lisbon

H

0

4

L

O

N

01 Nov

Gil Vicente

A

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Sp Braga

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Oct

Boavista

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Oct

Pacos Ferreira

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N

18 Sep

Belenenses

H

0

1

L

U

N


Portimonense in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portimonense in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance as a guest.
Portimonense, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Nacional

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Porto

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Santa Clara

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Oct

Tondela

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Maritimo

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Sp Lisbon

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Sep

Gil Vicente

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Sep

Pacos Ferreira

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Guimaraes and the red line for guest team, Portimonense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Guimaraes

20%

32%

26%

23%

Portimonense

33%

46%

9%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 1.37 goals and Portimonense to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the home team Guimaraes to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 1.52 goals and Portimonense to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Guimaraes to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

3.85

1

5.13

2-3

2.03

2

4.03

4+

4.07

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

5.99

Un 1.5

3.85

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.07

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

4.00

2.86

2-3 goals

1.77

3.38

7.25

4+ goals

1.94

4.92

3.57

Ov 1.5

1.82

3.77

5.39

Un 1.5

2.50

4.00

2.86

Ov 2.5

1.53

9.82

4.09

Un 2.5

2.69

2.41

4.70

Ov 3.5

1.94

4.92

3.57

Un 3.5

1.97

3.57

4.74

Goal-Goal

2.19

2.74

5.59

No Goal

1.74

7.11

3.50

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.60

7.82

4.07

NG+Un 2.5

1.92

7.11

3.35


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Famalicao vs Sp Lisbon at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Famalicao and Sp Lisbon for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Famalicao

5.54

15.15

-11.4

Draw

4.21

4.26

-0.3

Sp Lisbon

1.55

1.43

5.4

Over 2.5

1.65

3.21

-29.5

Under 2.5

2.23

1.45

24.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sp Lisbon, Under 2.5 (5.4 %, 24.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Famalicao in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Famalicao in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance at home.
Famalicao, at home, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Famalicao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Sp Braga

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Oct

Boavista

H

2

2

D

O

G

18 Oct

Farense

A

3

3

D

O

G

04 Oct

Rio Ave

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Sep

Belenenses

A

2

1

W

O

G

18 Sep

Benfica

H

1

5

L

O

G


Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance as a guest.
Sp Lisbon, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 12 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Moreirense

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Guimaraes

A

4

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Tondela

H

4

0

W

O

N

28 Oct

Gil Vicente

H

3

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Santa Clara

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Porto

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Oct

Portimonense

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Pacos Ferreira

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Famalicao and the red line for guest team, Sp Lisbon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Famalicao

67%

29%

14%

-10%

Sp Lisbon

18%

43%

11%

28%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Famalicao to score 0.81 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 2.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.87 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.25 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Famalicao to score 0.26 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.48 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.74 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.22 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.00

0-1

2.15

1

2.93

2-3

2.08

2

4.52

4+

19.23

3

3.85

Ov 1.5

1.88

4

18.87

Un 1.5

2.15

5

37.04

Ov 2.5

3.21

6+

-35.71

Un 2.5

1.46

Gg

3.77

Ov 3.5

19.23

NoG

1.36

Un 3.5

1.06

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

8.79

3.73

1.62

2-3 goals

7.29

3.91

1.65

4+ goals

-0.96

-4.00

0.44

Ov 1.5

44.42

4.85

1.30

Un 1.5

8.79

3.73

1.62

Ov 2.5

-24.00

-24.00

0.92

Un 2.5

8.81

2.77

1.90

Ov 3.5

-0.96

-4.00

0.44

Un 3.5

7.96

3.82

1.63

Goal-Goal

53.00

2.41

1.77

No Goal

12.23

5.87

1.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

28.40

-10.92

0.95

NG+Un 2.5

7.23

5.87

1.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Moreirense vs Gil Vicente at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Moreirense and Gil Vicente for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Moreirense

2.95

2.00

16.1

Draw

3.13

3.79

-5.6

Gil Vicente

2.47

4.22

-16.8

Over 2.5

2.33

2.22

2.1

Under 2.5

1.61

1.82

-7.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Moreirense, Over 2.5 (16.1 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Moreirense in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Moreirense in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance at home.
Moreirense, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Pacos Ferreira

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Sp Lisbon

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Rio Ave

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Oct

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

Belenenses

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Oct

Boavista

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Sep

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Sep

Farense

H

2

0

W

U

N


Gil Vicente in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gil Vicente in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance as a guest.
Gil Vicente, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Rio Ave

H

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Nacional

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Nov

Guimaraes

H

1

2

L

O

G

28 Oct

Sp Lisbon

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Porto

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Tondela

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Oct

Santa Clara

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Sep

Portimonense

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Moreirense and the red line for guest team, Gil Vicente.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Moreirense

23%

33%

24%

20%

Gil Vicente

39%

38%

15%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Moreirense to score 1.03 goals and Gil Vicente to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Moreirense to score 1.43 goals and Gil Vicente to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Moreirense to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.34

1

4.74

2-3

2.05

2

4.00

4+

4.74

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.34

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

4.74

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

3.40