2020 12 04 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ponferradina vs Las Palmas at 05 December 2020
Malaga vs Cartagena at 05 December 2020
Mirandes vs Lugo at 05 December 2020
Vallecano vs Logrones at 05 December 2020
Albacete vs Girona at 06 December 2020
Alcorcon vs Almeria at 06 December 2020
Espanol vs Sp Gijon at 06 December 2020
Sabadell vs Oviedo at 06 December 2020
Zaragoza vs Fuenlabrada at 06 December 2020
Tenerife vs Leganes at 07 December 2020
Mallorca vs Castellon at 07 December 2020


Ponferradina vs Las Palmas at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Ponferradina and Las Palmas for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ponferradina

2.45

2.14

5.9

Draw

2.92

3.65

-6.8

Las Palmas

3.31

3.86

-4.3

Over 2.5

2.60

2.29

5.2

Under 2.5

1.49

1.78

-10.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (5.9 %, 5.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ponferradina in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ponferradina in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance at home.
Ponferradina, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Logrones

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Leganes

H

3

2

W

O

G

25 Nov

Fuenlabrada

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Zaragoza

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Nov

Malaga

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Mallorca

A

0

3

L

O

N

05 Nov

Alcorcon

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Sabadell

H

0

3

L

O

N


Las Palmas in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Las Palmas in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Las Palmas’s performance as a guest.
Las Palmas, as a guest, had no wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Las Palmas was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Lugo

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Sp Gijon

H

3

2

W

O

G

25 Nov

Mirandes

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Nov

Sabadell

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Nov

Tenerife

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Nov

Girona

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Oviedo

H

1

2

L

O

G

28 Oct

Albacete

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ponferradina and the red line for guest team, Las Palmas.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ponferradina

23%

35%

26%

16%

Las Palmas

37%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.12 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.03 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.35 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Ponferradina to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.36

1

4.69

2-3

1.98

2

3.76

4+

5.00

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.36

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.28

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

5.00

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.35

3.51

3.47

2-3 goals

2.02

3.94

3.97

4+ goals

2.17

3.28

4.26

Ov 1.5

2.06

3.72

4.05

Un 1.5

2.35

3.51

3.47

Ov 2.5

1.77

7.18

3.37

Un 2.5

2.55

2.65

4.34

Ov 3.5

2.17

3.28

4.26

Un 3.5

2.13

3.77

3.77

Goal-Goal

2.61

2.58

4.36

No Goal

1.83

6.05

3.47

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.93

5.90

3.21

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

6.05

3.35


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Malaga vs Cartagena at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Malaga and Cartagena for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Malaga

2.53

2.32

3.6

Draw

3.14

3.55

-3.7

Cartagena

2.95

3.48

-5.2

Over 2.5

2.48

2.40

1.3

Under 2.5

1.56

1.72

-6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Malaga, Over 2.5 (3.6 %, 1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Malaga in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Malaga in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Malaga’s performance at home.
Malaga, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Malaga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Fuenlabrada

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Nov

Lugo

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Girona

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Leganes

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Nov

Ponferradina

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Sabadell

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Espanol

H

0

3

L

O

N

29 Oct

Mallorca

A

1

3

L

O

G


Cartagena in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cartagena in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance as a guest.
Cartagena, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Espanol

H

1

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Vallecano

A

0

0

D

U

N

25 Nov

Mallorca

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Mirandes

A

1

4

L

O

G

15 Nov

Castellon

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Logrones

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Albacete

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Girona

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Malaga and the red line for guest team, Cartagena.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Malaga

26%

35%

25%

14%

Cartagena

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.11 goals and Cartagena to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.26 goals and Cartagena to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.17

1

4.50

2-3

2.01

2

3.73

4+

5.32

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.81

Un 1.5

3.17

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.39

3.25

2-3 goals

2.18

3.86

3.53

4+ goals

2.41

3.13

3.76

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.63

3.59

Un 1.5

2.52

3.39

3.25

Ov 2.5

1.92

6.97

2.99

Un 2.5

2.74

2.63

3.94

Ov 3.5

2.41

3.13

3.76

Un 3.5

2.30

3.66

3.42

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.52

4.03

No Goal

2.00

5.65

3.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.78

2.94

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

5.65

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Mirandes vs Lugo at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Mirandes and Lugo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mirandes

2.11

2.11

0.0

Draw

2.90

3.68

-7.3

Lugo

3.97

3.94

0.2

Over 2.5

2.82

2.27

8.6

Under 2.5

1.41

1.79

-15.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lugo, Over 2.5 (0.2 %, 8.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mirandes in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mirandes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance at home.
Mirandes, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Girona

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Castellon

H

1

1

D

U

G

25 Nov

Las Palmas

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Cartagena

H

4

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Almeria

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Sp Gijon

H

1

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Leganes

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Oct

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N


Lugo in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lugo in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance as a guest.
Lugo, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Las Palmas

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Nov

Malaga

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Oviedo

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Nov

Alcorcon

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Nov

Albacete

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Espanol

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Nov

Vallecano

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Oct

Tenerife

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mirandes and the red line for guest team, Lugo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mirandes

23%

35%

26%

17%

Lugo

37%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mirandes to score 1.15 goals and Lugo to score 0.76 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.91 goals in the game and the home team Mirandes to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mirandes to score 1.37 goals and Lugo to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Mirandes to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.41

1

4.76

2-3

1.99

2

3.79

4+

4.98

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.41

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.98

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.53

3.53

2-3 goals

2.00

3.96

4.06

4+ goals

2.14

3.30

4.37

Ov 1.5

2.03

3.74

4.14

Un 1.5

2.31

3.53

3.53

Ov 2.5

1.75

7.21

3.44

Un 2.5

2.51

2.65

4.46

Ov 3.5

2.14

3.30

4.37

Un 3.5

2.10

3.79

3.85

Goal-Goal

2.58

2.60

4.40

No Goal

1.79

6.13

3.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

5.92

3.25

NG+Un 2.5

1.94

6.13

3.44


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Vallecano vs Logrones at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Vallecano and Logrones for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Vallecano

1.73

2.02

-8.3

Draw

3.31

3.76

-3.6

Logrones

5.31

4.20

5.0

Over 2.5

2.50

2.21

5.2

Under 2.5

1.54

1.83

-10.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Logrones, Over 2.5 (5 %, 5.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Vallecano in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vallecano in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vallecano’s performance at home.
Vallecano, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 76.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vallecano was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Leganes

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Cartagena

H

0

0

D

U

N

25 Nov

Zaragoza

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Castellon

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Nov

Sp Gijon

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Almeria

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Nov

Lugo

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Oct

Fuenlabrada

H

2

0

W

U

N


Logrones in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Logrones in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Logrones’s performance as a guest.
Logrones, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Logrones was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Ponferradina

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Mallorca

A

0

4

L

O

N

26 Nov

Albacete

H

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Tenerife

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Nov

Sabadell

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Cartagena

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Nov

Alcorcon

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Oct

Oviedo

A

3

2

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vallecano and the red line for guest team, Logrones.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Vallecano

21%

34%

26%

18%

Logrones

38%

37%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.43 goals and Logrones to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.42 goals and Logrones to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.52

1

4.85

2-3

1.98

2

3.80

4+

4.81

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.52

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.81

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.18

3.64