2020 12 04 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Inter vs Bologna at 05 December 2020
Spezia vs Lazio at 05 December 2020
Juventus vs Torino at 05 December 2020
Sampdoria vs Milan at 06 December 2020
Verona vs Cagliari at 06 December 2020
Udinese vs Atalanta at 06 December 2020
Crotone vs Napoli at 06 December 2020
Parma vs Benevento at 06 December 2020
Roma vs Sassuolo at 06 December 2020
Fiorentina vs Genoa at 07 December 2020


Inter vs Bologna at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Inter and Bologna for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Inter

1.47

2.41

-26.5

Draw

4.83

2.88

14.0

Bologna

6.48

4.20

8.4

Over 2.5

1.43

2.89

-35.3

Under 2.5

2.82

1.53

29.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Bologna, Under 2.5 (14 %, 8.4 %, 29.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Inter in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Inter in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance at home.
Inter, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Sassuolo

A

3

0

W

O

N

22 Nov

Torino

H

4

2

W

O

G

08 Nov

Atalanta

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Parma

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Oct

Genoa

A

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G

04 Oct

Lazio

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Sep

Benevento

A

5

2

W

O

G


Bologna in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bologna in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance as a guest.
Bologna, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bologna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Crotone

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Sampdoria

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Napoli

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Cagliari

H

3

2

W

O

G

24 Oct

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

18 Oct

Sassuolo

H

3

4

L

O

G

04 Oct

Benevento

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Sep

Parma

H

4

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Inter and the red line for guest team, Bologna.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Inter

34%

19%

36%

10%

Bologna

65%

-11%

39%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Inter to score 2.5 goals and Bologna to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.32 goals in the game and the home team Inter to win by 1.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Inter to score 1.22 goals and Bologna to score 0.89 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and the home team Inter to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

4.50

0-1

3.22

1

11.24

2-3

2.12

2

2.92

4+

4.61

3

7.81

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.22

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.90

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.53

Gg

4.31

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

1.30

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.47

1.40

-8.41

2-3 goals

1.82

-22.43

2.02

4+ goals

7.48

1.48

5.29

Ov 1.5

2.39

5.46

2.51

Un 1.5

2.47

1.40

-8.41

Ov 2.5

6.05

2.35

2.45

Un 2.5

1.83

3.25

6.81

Ov 3.5

7.48

1.48

5.29

Un 3.5

2.03

3.89

3.99

Goal-Goal

-23.20

1.84

2.00

No Goal

1.81

3.45

6.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

-25.30

1.72

2.18

NG+Un 2.5

1.89

3.45

7.03


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Spezia vs Lazio at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Spezia and Lazio for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spezia

5.29

2.60

19.6

Draw

3.92

3.58

2.4

Lazio

1.68

2.97

-25.9

Over 2.5

1.66

1.88

-7.0

Under 2.5

2.25

2.14

2.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spezia, Draw, Under 2.5 (19.6 %, 2.4 %, 2.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spezia in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance at home.
Spezia, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Cagliari

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Atalanta

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Benevento

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Juventus

H

1

4

L

O

G

25 Oct

Parma

A

2

2

D

O

G

18 Oct

Fiorentina

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Oct

Milan

A

0

3

L

O

N

30 Sep

Udinese

A

2

0

W

U

N


Lazio in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lazio in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance as a guest.
Lazio, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lazio was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Udinese

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Crotone

A

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Torino

A

4

3

W

O

G

24 Oct

Bologna

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Sampdoria

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Oct

Inter

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Sep

Atalanta

H

1

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Lazio.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spezia

33%

6%

50%

11%

Lazio

32%

22%

28%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 0.87 goals and Lazio to score 1.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.87 goals in the game and the guest team Lazio to win by 1.12 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.39 goals and Lazio to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.35

0-1

5.00

1

10.75

2-3

2.05

2

3.76

4+

3.22

3

4.52

Ov 1.5

1.25

4

5.75

Un 1.5

5.00

5

8.47

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

2.15

Gg

2.22

Ov 3.5

3.22

NoG

1.82

Un 3.5

1.46

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

11.11

1.87

2.67

2-3 goals

1.58

40.58

2.93

4+ goals

5.46

1.96

3.27

Ov 1.5

2.18

4.67

3.06

Un 1.5

11.11

1.87

2.67

Ov 2.5

2.60

3.35

3.17

Un 2.5

2.60

3.92

2.77

Ov 3.5

5.46

1.96

3.27

Un 3.5

2.10

5.77

2.85

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.63

4.09

No Goal

2.55

5.12

2.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.59

2.75

3.98

NG+Un 2.5

2.54

5.12

2.70


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Juventus vs Torino at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Juventus and Torino for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Juventus

1.42

1.74

-13.0

Draw

4.85

4.29

2.7

Torino

7.29

5.18

5.6

Over 2.5

1.52

2.60

-27.3

Under 2.5

2.52

1.63

21.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Torino, Under 2.5 (2.7 %, 5.6 %, 21.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Juventus in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance at home.
Juventus, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Benevento

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Cagliari

H

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Lazio

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Spezia

A

4

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Crotone

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Napoli

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Sep

Roma

A

2

2

D

O

G


Torino in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance as a guest.
Torino, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Nov

Sampdoria

H

2

2

D

O

G

22 Nov

Inter

A

2

4

L

O

G

08 Nov

Crotone

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Nov

Genoa

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Lazio

H

3

4

L

O

G

23 Oct

Sassuolo

A

3

3

D

O

G

18 Oct

Cagliari

H

2

3

L

O

G

26 Sep

Atalanta

H

2

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Juventus and the red line for guest team, Torino.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Juventus

24%

33%

24%

19%

Torino

69%

-2%

28%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Juventus to score 2.39 goals and Torino to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.11 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 1.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.39 goals and Torino to score 0.68 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.13

0-1

2.56

1

4.41

2-3

2.18

2

4.42

4+

6.54

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.64

4

12.66

Un 1.5

2.56

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.60

6+

111.11

Un 2.5

1.62

Gg

4.24

Ov 3.5

6.54

NoG

1.31

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.69

2.39

-97.50

2-3 goals

1.57

-76.33

2.66

4+ goals

3.06

1.99

5.88

Ov 1.5

1.79

8.61

3.09

Un 1.5

1.69

2.39

-97.50

Ov 2.5

2.18

5.00

2.94

Un 2.5

1.56

3.92

9.78

Ov 3.5

3.06

1.99

5.88

Un 3.5

1.62

5.40

5.05

Goal-Goal

5.24

3.32

1.97

No Goal

1.45

4.69

10.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

5.38

3.14

2.02

NG+Un 2.5

1.57

4.69

9.87


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sampdoria vs Milan at 06 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sampdoria and Milan for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 06 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sampdoria

4.42

2.75

13.7

Draw

3.91

3.58

2.4

Milan

1.78

2.80

-20.5

Over 2.5

1.69

1.96

-8.2

Under 2.5

2.21

2.04

3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sampdoria, Draw, Under 2.5 (13.7 %, 2.4 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sampdoria in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sampdoria in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance at home.
Sampdoria, at home, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Nov

Torino

A

2

2

D

O

G

22 Nov

Bologna

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Cagliari

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Genoa

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Atalanta

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Lazio

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Oct

Fiorentina

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Sep

Benevento

H

2

3

L

O

G


Milan in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milan in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milan’s performance as a guest.
Milan, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 12 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Fiorentina

H

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Napoli

A

3

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Verona

H

2

2

D

O

G

01 Nov

Udinese

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Oct

Roma

H

3

3

D

O

G

17 Oct

Inter

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Spezia

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Sep

Crotone

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sampdoria and the red line for guest team, Milan.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sampdoria

34%

13%

42%

11%

Milan

33%

22%

29%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 0.96 goals and Milan to score 1.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the guest team Milan to win by 0.91 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.3 goals and Milan to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.09

0-1

4.41

1

8.55

2-3

2.06

2

3.80

4+

3.48

3

4.50

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.41

5

9.80

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.24

Ov 3.5

3.48

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-