2020 12 04 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ascoli vs Pescara at 04 December 2020
Lecce vs Venezia at 05 December 2020
Spal vs Pisa at 05 December 2020
Salernitana vs Cittadella at 05 December 2020
Reggina vs Brescia at 05 December 2020
Frosinone vs Chievo at 05 December 2020
Cremonese vs Virtus Entella at 05 December 2020
Vicenza vs Cosenza at 06 December 2020
Reggiana vs Monza at 06 December 2020
Pordenone vs Empoli at 07 December 2020


Ascoli vs Pescara at 04 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Ascoli and Pescara for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 04 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ascoli

2.36

2.02

7.1

Draw

3.11

3.89

-6.4

Pescara

3.16

4.03

-6.8

Over 2.5

2.05

2.09

-0.9

Under 2.5

1.78

1.92

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ascoli (7.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ascoli in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ascoli in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance at home.
Ascoli, at home, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Venezia

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Virtus Entella

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Pordenone

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Salernitana

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Oct

Reggiana

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Frosinone

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Oct

Lecce

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Sep

Brescia

A

1

1

D

U

G


Pescara in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance as a guest.
Pescara, as a guest, had no wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Pordenone

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Spal

A

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Cittadella

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Lecce

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Frosinone

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Oct

Venezia

A

0

4

L

O

N

17 Oct

Empoli

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Reggina

A

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ascoli and the red line for guest team, Pescara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ascoli

22%

28%

33%

17%

Pescara

37%

35%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ascoli to score 1.32 goals and Pescara to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ascoli to score 1.45 goals and Pescara to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Ascoli to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.85

1

5.56

2-3

1.95

2

3.83

4+

4.42

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.85

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.42

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.25

3.38

2-3 goals

1.70

5.18

4.54

4+ goals

2.51

2.90

3.90

Ov 1.5

1.89

4.18

4.32

Un 1.5

2.52

3.25

3.38

Ov 2.5

1.78

6.13

3.65

Un 2.5

2.32

2.91

4.45

Ov 3.5

2.51

2.90

3.90

Un 3.5

1.91

4.32

4.07

Goal-Goal

2.38

2.80

4.50

No Goal

1.76

6.30

3.65

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.90

5.08

3.60

NG+Un 2.5

1.88

6.30

3.61


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Lecce vs Venezia at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Lecce and Venezia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lecce

1.90

2.34

-9.9

Draw

3.40

3.66

-2.1

Venezia

4.13

3.33

5.8

Over 2.5

1.85

2.17

-8.0

Under 2.5

1.97

1.85

3.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Venezia, Under 2.5 (5.8 %, 3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lecce in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Lecce in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance at home.
Lecce, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lecce was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Nov

Chievo

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Reggiana

H

7

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Virtus Entella

A

5

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Pescara

H

3

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Oct

Cremonese

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Oct

Brescia

A

0

3

L

O

N

03 Oct

Ascoli

A

2

0

W

U

N


Venezia in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance as a guest.
Venezia, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Ascoli

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Brescia

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Nov

Virtus Entella

A

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Reggiana

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Empoli

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Pescara

H

4

0

W

O

N

17 Oct

Cremonese

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Oct

Frosinone

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lecce and the red line for guest team, Venezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lecce

25%

32%

30%

13%

Venezia

32%

37%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.65 goals and Venezia to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Lecce to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.31 goals and Venezia to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.64

1

5.13

2-3

1.97

2

3.77

4+

4.63

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.64

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.44

2.99

2-3 goals

2.04

4.23

3.65

4+ goals

2.88

2.96

3.18

Ov 1.5

2.23

3.75

3.50

Un 1.5

2.67

3.44

2.99

Ov 2.5

2.01

6.29

2.91

Un 2.5

2.71

2.70

3.83

Ov 3.5

2.88

2.96

3.18

Un 3.5

2.22

3.92

3.39

Goal-Goal

2.74

2.64

3.89

No Goal

2.03

6.11

2.91

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

5.34

2.98

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

6.11

2.98


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Spal vs Pisa at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Spal and Pisa for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spal

1.83

1.98

-4.1

Draw

3.26

4.13

-6.5

Pisa

4.72

3.94

4.2

Over 2.5

2.05

1.91

3.6

Under 2.5

1.78

2.10

-8.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pisa, Over 2.5 (4.2 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spal in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spal in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spal’s performance at home.
Spal, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Nov

Virtus Entella

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Pescara

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Nov

Salernitana

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Reggina

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Vicenza

H

3

2

W

O

G

20 Oct

Empoli

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Pordenone

A

3

3

D

O

G

03 Oct

Cosenza

H

1

1

D

U

G


Pisa in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Pisa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance as a guest.
Pisa, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Cittadella

H

1

4

L

O

G

22 Nov

Reggina

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Vicenza

A

4

4

D

O

G

23 Oct

Empoli

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Oct

Monza

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Salernitana

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Oct

Cremonese

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Sep

Reggiana

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spal and the red line for guest team, Pisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spal

19%

27%

33%

20%

Pisa

41%

24%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spal to score 1.58 goals and Pisa to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Spal to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spal to score 1.55 goals and Pisa to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and the home team Spal to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

4.27

1

6.37

2-3

2.04

2

4.13

4+

3.64

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.33

Un 1.5

4.27

5

11.24

Ov 2.5

1.91

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.10

Gg

2.08

Ov 3.5

3.64

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.11

3.04

5.09

2-3 goals

1.63

7.42

3.95

4+ goals

2.99

2.78

3.27

Ov 1.5

1.95

4.64

3.68

Un 1.5

2.11

3.04

5.09

Ov 2.5

2.04

5.28

3.11

Un 2.5

1.93

3.33

5.53

Ov 3.5

2.99

2.78

3.27

Un 3.5

1.76

5.06

4.26

Goal-Goal

2.77

2.91

3.38

No Goal

1.57

6.74

4.63

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.39

4.18

2.92

NG+Un 2.5

1.66

6.74

4.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Salernitana vs Cittadella at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Salernitana and Cittadella for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salernitana

2.38

2.46

-1.4

Draw

3.18

3.75

-4.8

Cittadella

3.02

3.06

-0.4

Over 2.5

2.04

2.06

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.79

1.94

-4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salernitana in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salernitana in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance at home.
Salernitana, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Cosenza

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Nov

Cremonese

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Nov

Spal

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Ascoli

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Vicenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Pisa

H

4

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Chievo

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Sep

Reggina

H

1

1

D

U

G


Cittadella in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cittadella in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance as a guest.
Cittadella, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cittadella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Pisa

A

4

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Empoli

H

2

2

D

O

G

08 Nov

Pescara

A

1

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Monza

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Oct

Pordenone

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Brescia

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Sep

Cremonese

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salernitana and the red line for guest team, Cittadella.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salernitana

26%

30%

32%

12%

Cittadella

31%

34%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.31 goals and Cittadella to score 1.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.31 goals and Cittadella to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.85

1

5.52

2-3

1.99

2

3.91

4+

4.18

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.85

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.77

3.29