2020 12 04 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Tenerife vs Obradoiro at 05 December 2020
Joventut Badalona vs Zaragoza at 05 December 2020
Fuenlabrada vs Valencia at 05 December 2020
Andorra vs Real Betis at 06 December 2020
Baskonia vs Gipuzkoa at 06 December 2020
San Pablo Burgos vs Real Madrid at 06 December 2020
Bilbao vs Estudiantes at 06 December 2020
Barcelona vs Gran Canaria at 06 December 2020
Unicaja Malaga vs Murcia at 06 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Tenerife vs Obradoiro at 06 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and Obradoiro for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Tenerife

1.26

1.69

Obradoiro

3.85

2.46

Tenerife HC

-7.5

-3.50

Obradoiro HC

+7.5

3.50

Point Line

160.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

A

Valencia Basket

W

95

89

10

1

W 4

92

87

Nov 15

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

99

80

9

1

W 3

92

87

Nov 12

A

Manresa

W

88

80

8

1

W 2

85

78

Nov 8

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

77

73

7

1

W 1

77

79

Nov 1

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

74

81

6

1

L 1

80

79

Oct 25

A

Unicaja

W

86

79

6

0

W 5

90

78

Oct 17

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

86

82

5

0

W 4

90

79

Oct 10

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

91

87

4

0

W 3

87

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Obradoiro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 21

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

63

78

5

6

L 4

64

71

Nov 15

A

Baskonia

L

74

80

5

5

L 3

78

80

Nov 1

A

Unicaja

L

76

82

5

4

L 2

80

80

Oct 27

H

Valencia Basket

L

77

78

5

3

L 1

75

76

Oct 25

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

85

75

5

2

W 1

79

82

Oct 20

A

Real Madrid

L

77

84

4

2

L 1

84

78

Oct 17

H

Acunsa GBC

W

85

76

4

1

W 1

79

88

Oct 3

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

81

99

3

1

L 1

77

101

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tenerife and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Obradoiro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Obradoiro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tenerife.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tenerife (in the first graph) and by Obradoiro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tenerife will expected to score 83 points and the Obradoiro 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Tenerife

Obradoiro

FG%

0.54

0.56

ASS

16.90

16.20

DRB

19.50

22.60

AST-TO

1.28

1.15

TRB

29.70

30.90

FTM

13.50

12.20

BL

2.50

2.50

FTA

18.00

15.50

PF-Fewer

22.20

19.20

ST

7.20

6.50

TO-Fewer

13.20

14.10

Ftper

0.75

0.78

ORBper

0.52

0.37

ORB

10.20

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Joventut Badalona vs Zaragoza at 06 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Zaragoza for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Joventut Badalona

1.24

2.16

Zaragoza

4.15

1.86

Joventut Badalona HC

-8.5

2.00

Zaragoza HC

+8.5

-2.00

Point Line

169.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

A

Acunsa GBC

W

99

68

7

3

W 2

92

79

Nov 1

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

97

70

6

3

W 1

94

71

Oct 30

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

84

93

5

3

L 1

80

88

Oct 24

H

Baskonia

W

83

82

5

2

W 1

87

82

Oct 17

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

82

86

4

2

L 1

83

81

Oct 11

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

88

81

4

1

W 2

83

82

Oct 3

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

89

87

3

1

W 1

94

89

Sep 27

H

Real Madrid

L

64

87

2

1

L 1

70

81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

85

97

2

9

L 5

92

94

Nov 14

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

81

82

2

8

L 4

77

78

Nov 8

H

Manresa

L

102

103

2

7

L 3

98

101

Oct 30

H

Unicaja

L

63

92

2

6

L 2

66

90

Oct 24

A

Valencia Basket

L

84

93

2

5

L 1

82

91

Oct 18

H

UCAM Murcia

W

98

86

2

4

W 1

100

88

Oct 10

A

Acunsa GBC

L

67

70

1

4

L 2

62

81

Oct 8

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

86

100

1

3

L 1

87

91

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Zaragoza in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 87 points and the Zaragoza 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Joventut Badalona

Zaragoza

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

13.50

16.90

DRB

18.80

23.90

AST-TO

1.30

1.09

TRB

26.80

31.60

FTM

12.90

16.70

BL

1.90

2.00

FTA

16.90

23.40

PF-Fewer

20.20

21.30

ST

7.70

7.10

TO-Fewer

10.40

15.50

Ftper

0.76

0.72

ORBper

0.43

0.32

ORB

8.00

7.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fuenlabrada vs Valencia at 06 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Valencia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fuenlabrada

2.7

1.83

Valencia

1.47

2.21

Fuenlabrada HC

+4.5

-2.00

Valencia HC

-4.5

2.00

Point Line

169.5

168.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fuenlabrada are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 21

A

UCAM Murcia

L

81

84

4

7

L 1

83

86

Nov 14

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

82

81

4

6

W 1

74

79

Nov 8

A

Real Madrid

L

68

79

3

6

L 1

74

74

Nov 1

A

San Pablo Burgos

W

99

78

3

5

W 3

100

71

Oct 30

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

93

84

2

5

W 2

97

81

Oct 24

A

Acunsa GBC

W

100

72

1

5

W 1

93

84

Oct 17

H

Manresa

L

100

102

0

5

L 4

96

100

Oct 10

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

87

91

0

4

L 3

88

85

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 1

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

W

100

90

5

6

W 1

108

88

Nov 22

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

89

95

4

6

L 3

90

89

Nov 8

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

81

99

4

5

L 2

82

90

Nov 1

H

Real Madrid

L

78

86

4

4

L 1

85

80

Oct 27

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

78

77

4

3

W 2

79

78

Oct 24

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

93

84

3

3

W 1

84

82

Oct 11

H

Unicaja

L

66

71

2

3

L 2

69

70

Oct 4

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

85

95

2

2

L 1

85

103

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fuenlabrada and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fuenlabrada.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fuenlabrada (in the first graph) and by Valencia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fuenlabrada will expected to score 84 points and the Valencia 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 169.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Fuenlabrada

Valencia

FG%

0.54

0.56

ASS

14.50

18.50

DRB

22.50

21.80

AST-TO

1.00

1.36

TRB

31.50

29.10

FTM

16.10

15.80

BL

3.00

1.50

FTA

21.80

18.70

PF-Fewer

23.20

17.30

ST

8.90

7.40

TO-Fewer

14.50

13.60

Ftper

0.74

0.84

ORBper

0.40

0.33

ORB

9.10

7.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Andorra vs Real Betis at 06 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Andorra and Real Betis for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Andorra

1.3

1.94

Real Betis

3.5

2.06

Andorra HC

-7.5

-1.50

Real Betis HC

+7.5

1.50

Point Line

155.5

153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 3

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

85

76

5

4

W 2

80

77

Nov 21

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

79

62

4

4

W 1

73

68

Oct 25

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

71

82

3

4

L 1

77

80

Oct 17

H

San Pablo Burgos

W

87

82

3

3

W 2

88

75

Oct 10

A

Manresa

W

69

64

2

3

W 1

66

63

Oct 3

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

87

89

1

3

L 3

91

86

Sep 27

H

Unicaja

L

78

81

1

2

L 2

82

80

Sep 25

A

Valencia Basket

L

76

91

1

1

L 1

74

89

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

89

96

2

9

L 3

84

98

Nov 14

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

53

82

2

8

L 2

57

80

Nov 8

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

73

77

2

7

L 1

74

72

Oct 31

H

Acunsa GBC

W

74

62

2

6

W 1

69

72

Oct 27

H

Real Madrid

L

65

84

1

6

L 4

71

78

Oct 24

A

Manresa

L

81

93

1

5

L 3

78

91

Oct 18

H

Movistar Estudiantes

L

80

81

1

4

L 2

78

82

Oct 10

A

UCAM Murcia

L

72

74

1

3

L 1

74

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Andorra (in the first graph) and by Real Betis in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Andorra will expected to score 80 points and the Real Betis 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Andorra

Real Betis

FG%

0.54

0.49

ASS

15.80

14.30

DRB

24.30

19.90

AST-TO

1.06

1.16

TRB

34.10

29.20

FTM

12.20

14.70

BL

3.80

2.50

FTA

16.40

20.50

PF-Fewer

21.30

19.80

ST

7.00

8.70

TO-Fewer

14.90

12.30

Ftper

0.74

0.72

ORBper

0.40

0.47

ORB

9.80

9.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Baskonia vs Gipuzkoa at 06 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Baskonia and Gipuzkoa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Baskonia

1.06

1.64

Gipuzkoa

9

2.56

Baskonia HC

-17.5

-3.50

Gipuzkoa HC

+17.5

3.50

Point Line

155.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 2

A

Real Madrid

L

83

92

8

4

L 1

91

86

Nov 15

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

80

74

8

3

W 4

81

75

Nov 7

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

82

68

7

3

W 3

78

69

Nov 1

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

75

71